Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[caneman]

Convection is definitely less but structure looks better. Next 12 hours should tell the tale.

[Thunder44]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 071240
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060807 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060807 1200 060808 0000 060808 1200 060809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.1N 40.4W 13.2N 42.7W 14.2N 45.3W 15.1N 47.9W
BAMM 12.1N 40.4W 12.8N 42.8W 13.4N 45.7W 13.7N 48.8W
A98E 12.1N 40.4W 12.4N 43.8W 13.0N 47.1W 13.7N 50.1W
LBAR 12.1N 40.4W 12.9N 43.3W 13.9N 46.1W 14.5N 48.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060809 1200 060810 1200 060811 1200 060812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 50.5W 16.4N 55.3W 17.6N 58.4W 18.1N 60.4W
BAMM 13.9N 52.1W 14.5N 58.9W 16.3N 65.0W 17.9N 70.8W
A98E 14.5N 52.7W 16.1N 57.2W 17.7N 61.1W 19.1N 64.8W
LBAR 14.7N 51.7W 14.7N 57.0W 15.2N 61.4W 19.2N 66.4W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 49KTS 55KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 49KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 34.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[miamicanes177]

I agree this is a very poorly organized system right now.

[wxman57]

Hey wxman57:

In naming that image "debby1.gif" are you making a prediction?

I think it has a good shot at developing, so I use a naming convention that allows me to store all images for future talks. Currently, I'm trying to determine if it will impact northern or southern Belize next Monday. It's hard to tell yet, maybe in a few more hours...

Here's a color shot:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby2.jpg

[Jim Cantore]

From todays TWO

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Ivan14]

To my untrained eye it looks good but I am just starting to learn. Banding is looking good right now.

[Stormavoider]

177, would you say a poorly organized TD or a well organize wave?

[wxman57]

To my untrained eye it looks good but I am just starting to learn. Banding is looking good right now.

There is definite banding into what looks like a fairly well-defined LLC. What's keeping it from being upgraded to a depression is the general disorganization of the convection near the center. It can't get organized very easily because it's moving so fast.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

I been looking at this map for steering and finding out where these storms might go but someone told me in a chat room last night that looking at this map is not the way to figure out where a storm may go. Are they right or is this map correct? It shows the atlantic High retreating which I would guess would send this system into a fishspin if it developed. Am I correct?? Its 5 days out.

[beachbum_al]

Not meaning to disrespect the mets on this board but the TWD mention it and possible development in the next 36 hrs. Our local stations here in Mobile mention it but said don't worry since it is over 1000 miles away right now but it could develop into a depression later tonight or tomorrow. I am not sure what channel since dh was flipping through the channels.

[HURAKAN]

Convection is needed.

[SouthFloridawx]

I been looking at this map for steering and finding out where these storms might go but someone told me in a chat room last night that looking at this map is not the way to figure out where a storm may go. Are they right or is this map correct? It shows the atlantic High retreating which I would guess would send this system into a fishspin if it developed. Am I correct?? Its 5 days out.

You may want to try to use the 850-500mb steering layers for a system that is still developing. These are often steered at the lower to mid levels.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

A general East to West flow is currently going on in my interpretation.

[SouthFloridawx]

Not sure if this was posted already but here is a quote from the 805 TWD.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO WEST OF THIS LOW CENTER FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW
CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

You may want to try to use the 850-500mb steering layers for a system that is still developing. These are often steered at the lower to mid levels.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

A general East to West flow is currently going on in my interpretation.

WOW! according to that map, it would go to the gulf! But is that good 5 days out?

[SouthFloridawx]

You may want to try to use the 850-500mb steering layers for a system that is still developing. These are often steered at the lower to mid levels.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

A general East to West flow is currently going on in my interpretation.

WOW! according to that map, it would go to the gulf! But is that good 5 days out?

No that is the Current Steering Layesr for 850-500mb. This is not good 5 days out. There is no real good forecast for steering currents that far out. I try to stick with GFS up till 72 to get an idea of what the near term steering flow might be.

[miamicanes177]

12Z track and intensity forecasts:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

[SWFLA_CANE]

Track and intensity look familiar...Chris may be it will have the same fate as Chris

[wxman57]

Here's a GFS prog showing mid-level steering for Sunday, August 13. Note the large high pressure over the eastern Gulf and offshore flow all along the east U.S. Coast. That high appears to stay north of the disturbance as it crosses the Caribbean, following it westward. IT would suggest a track toward the lower Yucatan Peninsula late next Sunday or on Monday. From there, the high builds farther westward (according to the GFS, anyway). Such a scenario could push this system across the BoC into Mexico.

Of course, being 8 days out, I can't tell if it'll move into northern or southern Belize.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby4.gif

[x-y-no]

Not meaning to disrespect the mets on this board but the TWD mention it and possible development in the next 36 hrs. Our local stations here in Mobile mention it but said don't worry since it is over 1000 miles away right now but it could develop into a depression later tonight or tomorrow. I am not sure what channel since dh was flipping through the channels.

Don't see how that contradicts what the pro mets are saying here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's a GFS prog showing mid-level steering for Sunday, August 13. Note the large high pressure over the eastern Gulf and offshore flow all along the east U.S. Coast. That high appears to stay north of the disturbance as it crosses the Caribbean, following it westward. IT would suggest a track toward the lower Yucatan Peninsula late next Sunday or on Monday. From there, the high builds farther westward (according to the GFS, anyway). Such a scenario could push this system across the BoC into Mexico.

Of course, being 8 days out, I can't tell if it'll move into northern or southern Belize.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby4.gif