Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[28_Storms]

Excuses me while I put my fist through a wall.

Sleep might help.

[Thunder44]

Wow this board flip flops.
Its not that serious.

If people don't get their TD in 6 hours or their hurricane tomorrow, the season is bad for them.

[28_Storms]

If people don't get their TD in 6 hours or their hurricane tomorrow, the season is bad for them

If people don't get a TD to CAT 5 in a few hours we get season cancel post.

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on August 7, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands continues to show signs of organization.
A tropical depression could form during the next day or so as the
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
$$
Forecaster Mainelli/Franklin

[Coredesat]

We seriously need a "broken record" emoticon...

[Normandy]

Seriously it gets annoying at times...
The disturbance is continuing to get better organized and then all of a sudden people look at a shear map (one that shows a whole 10 KNOTS of increasing shear that not even where the system is) and say..."WELL ITS OVER"

[Normandy]

Ok looking at visibles that has to be a TD...or the best looking wave ever

[Thunder44]

First visibles indicate a possible LLC near 12N 40W. That would be on the eastern edge or of the convection.

[Normandy]

Actually I think it may be a tiny bit farther west

[Thunder44]

Actually I think it may be a tiny bit farther west

We'll have to see further visible images to see better. Right now it looks like most of convection is still to the west of the center.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I did not say that this was not going to develop. I was just mad that shear was increasing to the north...Which could easly drop down to this system...In also the convection was being forced to the west again.

Right now there is a very well defined LLC at 12.5/40.2...Nice banding forming with convection mostly over the western side. I say this is a strong depression if not a weak tropical storm 30 to 35 knots. We will see how long the nhc takes to upgrade.

[WindRunner]

Well, like I said last night, 11am is the absolute earliest anything could happen, and if anything was to happen today, 5pm is the more logical bet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That big broad system formed this small cyclone...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[Thunder44]

I did not say that this was not going to develop. I was just mad that shear was increasing to the north...Which could easly drop down to this system...In also the convection was being forced to the west again.

Right now there is a very well defined LLC at 12.5/40.2...Nice banding forming with convection mostly over the western side. I say this is a strong depression if not a weak tropical storm 30 to 35 knots. We will see how long the nhc takes to upgrade.

The ULL in the Central Atlantic seems to be moving more SW now. So the upper-level shear is going to increase ahead of it more than it will do from the north side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

This wave probably has another 24 hours or so to develop before it runs into higher shear.

[Ivan14]

I also think that this is a T.D. already. However convection seems to be decreasing but this little system is very well organized.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is under the cdo like area of convection. There is banding starting to fire over the eastern part. Which might be a sign that the eastly shear is weaking.

[Derek Ortt]

what we have is a very disorganized area of low-pressure that is showing no signs of further development and atmospheric conditions do not seem as favorable as expected. Too much easterly shear over it, and ahead, too much westerly shear

As an aside, shouldn't we stop with these season is a dud posts? Anyone remember 1998 and 1999? We had the B storm in mid August

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

what we have is a very disorganized area of low-pressure that is showing no signs of further development and atmospheric conditions do not seem as favorable as expected. Too much easterly shear over it, and ahead, too much westerly shear

As an aside, shouldn't we stop with these season is a dud posts? Anyone remember 1998 and 1999? We had the B storm in mid August

This is what the officials say from weather.com. It looks like at least they think it has a chance of development!

5:59 a.m. ET 8/7/06
M. Newman, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
A low pressure area in the far eastern Atlantic, about 1400 miles E of the Windward Islands, continues to bear watching. It's showing some signs of organization, and further development is possible over the next day or two as it continues to move westward.

[george_r_1961]

Seriously it gets annoying at times...
The disturbance is continuing to get better organized and then all of a sudden people look at a shear map (one that shows a whole 10 KNOTS of increasing shear that not even where the system is) and say..."WELL ITS OVER"

In all honesty after the last two years I cannot say I blame ppl one bit for saying that. Id rather see posts like that than posts like " Come on Debby baby come to Texas!!!!"

[Thunder44]

Dvorak estimates from overnight show it still disorganzied:

07/0545 UTC 11.7N 38.2W TOO WEAK 91L

Looking at more visibles there is nice spin in mid to upper levels, but I don't see it as much at the lower-levels. There doesn't look to be a LLC.