Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah the system looks to be getting better organized. Heck the last eastern Atlatnic system that the nhc got suprized on was Isabel. That sucker bombed.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well, it's true. People moisten their pants because a forecaster adjusted one adjective.

"OMG... they said 'could become a depression' instead of 'possibly become a dperssion'... that means this will be our next depression." No... it means exactly what it means: it "could" become a depression.

Well they did not adjust one adjective. And, yes, the 1030pm TWO was more bullish than the 530pm outlook. At 530 they said, "slow development is possible over the next couple of days". At 1030 they said, "the system continues to improve in organization and a tropical depression could form during the next day or so". So I'm not sure what point you were trying to make. Nevertheless, they were indeed more bullish in their latest update.

I realize this. I'm just saying that people tend to get excite and read between the lines when there is nothing to read.

But why not wait for a true example to make that point instead of using an example where the NHC was actually being more bullish?

Well he is actually making a pretty valid point.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is that a pic of Frances there?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the other computer mod that could be isabel but frances looked pretty good to...When it was moving north of the islands.

[senorpepr]

Well, it's true. People moisten their pants because a forecaster adjusted one adjective.

"OMG... they said 'could become a depression' instead of 'possibly become a dperssion'... that means this will be our next depression." No... it means exactly what it means: it "could" become a depression.

Well they did not adjust one adjective. And, yes, the 1030pm TWO was more bullish than the 530pm outlook. At 530 they said, "slow development is possible over the next couple of days". At 1030 they said, "the system continues to improve in organization and a tropical depression could form during the next day or so". So I'm not sure what point you were trying to make. Nevertheless, they were indeed more bullish in their latest update.

I realize this. I'm just saying that people tend to get excite and read between the lines when there is nothing to read.

But why not wait for a true example to make that point instead of using an example where the NHC was actually being more bullish?

First off, what is your issue?

Secondly, it was quickly headed that way:

The fact that forecaster Franklin (and Mainelli) is writing this should mean something. They are now on to the "could become a depression during the next day or so" from the "could get better organized and slowly develop".

In that example, the user was reading between the lines simply over the forecaster. It was only a matter of time before people progressed this habit.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system is looking pretty good right now with the LLC half under the deep convection. But eastly shear is trying ot push it away again.

[Bailey1777]

Hey how about them hurricanes? Come on guys we all love this stuff that's why we're here.(shake hands and lets get back to watching ):cheesy:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I very much love this stuff!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey how about them hurricanes? Come on guys we all love this stuff that's why we're here.(shake hands and lets get back to watching ):cheesy:

Shh... there's nothing out there.

If you say the opposite of it's gonna develop, it might.

[rnbaida]

Can someone please post a graphic for the shear forecast. Thank you

[Bailey1777]

This may sound like a dumb question, but why do they not line the Atlantic with buoy's so they can get surface observations on these far out storms?

[MWatkins]

Well to me...and I am sure I am not the first to put this in here...

1. The system is better organized than it was yesterday and is almost surely a tropical depression. QScat shows a pretty stretched system with multiple vorticies along the wave as of this afternoon:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Since then deep thunderstorms have developed along the axis the NHC had been tracking. No recent SSMI or TRMM pases are available but...it looks like it has closed off.

2. Easterly shear is impacting the system. Not sure how much this is getting in the way right now...but most of the convective activity is off to the west of the apparent center.

Both of these factors suggest we will probably have a TD sometime in the next 24 hours, and development will be slow but will occur over the next few days.

MW

[Thunder44]

Convection does look closer to the center than it did yesterday afternoon. However it's hard to determine where the center exactly is without using visible imagery.

[ALhurricane]

Well to me...and I am sure I am not the first to put this in here...

1. The system is better organized than it was yesterday and is almost surely a tropical depression. QScat shows a pretty stretched system with multiple vorticies along the wave as of this afternoon:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Since then deep thunderstorms have developed along the axis the NHC had been tracking. No recent SSMI or TRMM pases are available but...it looks like it has closed off.

2. Easterly shear is impacting the system. Not sure how much this is getting in the way right now...but most of the convective activity is off to the west of the apparent center.

Both of these factors suggest we will probably have a TD sometime in the next 24 hours, and development will be slow but will occur over the next few days.

MW

Well Mike, you beat me to the punch. I was about to make almost the exact same post.

This definitely looks like a TD now. Debby should come out of this as the shear overall does not look hostile for gradual development in at least the short term.

One thing to keep an eye on the upper low just south of 25N and between 50W and 55W. It looks like it is trying to drop slowly south It may have some influence down the road. It doesn't look like the 00z GFS initialized that feature well either. Surprise, surprise.

[Bailey1777]

Why are they not putting out dvorak #'s lately?

[Bailey1777]

what I believe is the center is at 11.5N - 38.0W. Does that sound right?

[SouthFloridawx]

It looks like we might be starting to see some banding features going on. Still some dry air on the north and northeast side but, not enough to keep this thing from wrapping up nicely. IMO TD 4 Tomorrow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree this is very likely a depression...It has a closed LLC with the convection had developed right over it. Or better yet it kind of moved into it. I been noting this all day. The eastly shear is trying to push it away again. But I think this should be enough to earn it a 2.0t which the nhc will upgrade.

[Bailey1777]

Yeah, if Im picking out the center correctly it looks like the far SE side of the blob is just starting to get tucked into the circulation.

[Brent]

One thing to keep an eye on the upper low just south of 25N and between 50W and 55W. It looks like it is trying to drop slowly south It may have some influence down the road. It doesn't look like the 00z GFS initialized that feature well either. Surprise, surprise.

How would that impact it?

My thinking is, if it develops slowly, it'll keep going westward and probably not recurve. I'm thinking TD 4 by Tuesday at the latest.