WPAC: Tropical Storm Bopha (0609)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Right now for the S storm the JTWC is more accurate. With there 75 knots. This thing has a well developed eye with the 85h data. But with the storm in this thread the JMA is more Accurate with there 50 knots.

[JonathanBelles]

is anyone here or elsewhere a typhoon expert?

[HURAKAN]

T0609 (BOPHA)
Issued at 06:00 UTC 7 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0609 BOPHA (0609)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 22.9N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 120NM

FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 23.1N 124.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 090600UTC 22.6N 121.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 100600UTC 21.8N 119.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

[P.K.]

which is more accurate?

You will likely get a lower reading if you take a measurement over ten minutes as some of the variance from gusts is filtered out. Personally I prefer the ten minute average as a one minute average is far more subject to variations that aren't representative of a sustained speed. I've got a feeling not many people on here will agree with me on this though.

[HURAKAN]

which is more accurate?

You will likely get a lower reading if you take a measurement over ten minutes as some of the variance from gusts is filtered out. Personally I prefer the ten minute average as a one minute average is far more subject to variations that aren't representative of a sustained speed. I've got a feeling not many people on here will agree with me on this though.

It's understandable that you will have more variations in a 10-min period of time than in a 1-min period. Nevertheless, I have a feeling that sometimes JMA is too conservative, but they are the officials here!!!

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0609 BOPHA (0609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 23.3N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 21.3N 123.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE SSW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
45HF 091800UTC 20.0N 122.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[whereverwx]

Bopha is now becoming into view on the Taiwan radar.

[bvigal]

Wow! Here's link to pic today by OSEI of Saomai, Bopha, and Maria:

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current ... 219_GJ.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The visible shows that this system has developed a well defined Cdo...With good to perfect outflow over all quads. 85h data TMI shows that a eye is starting to develop. I would say its 55 to 60 knots right now. In should be a Typhoon in about 3 to 6 hours.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[whereverwx]

Another one for Taiwan, it looks like... at least they're common there, and this should be nothing for the most part.

[P.K.]

The last 24 hours on radar:



The last 6 hours on Taiwan's radar:

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0609 BOPHA (0609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 22.4N 120.8E FAIR
MOVE WSW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 21.8N 119.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
45HF 101800UTC 21.2N 117.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[P.K.]

Still a TD.

WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 51N 157E
60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N 160E 39N 143E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 22N 115E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 36N 125E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 37N 138E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 50N 168E EAST 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 37N 149E TO 36N 150E 34N 151E.
COLD FRONT FROM 35N 147E TO 33N 144E 33N 141E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 980 HPA AT 27.2N 119.1E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) 1000 HPA AT 37.7N 147.0E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[wxmann_91]

The last 24 hours on radar:

Hey P.K. that's a cool radar loop. Do you have one for when Saomai passed by the general vicinity?

[P.K.]

This is the best I can do.

[wxmann_91]

Oh well. Thanks anyway.