Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe its just south of the new blow up of convection.

[Derek Ortt]

this is a very disorganized feature, with the wave and low separating. Probably wont see soemthing for at least 24 hours until we see some real organization

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear is quite strong out of the southwest right now...Based on the clouds shearing off the big ball of convection in front of the low. Eastly shear is pounding all the convection to the west...Which has not allowed for the LLC to form any convection. But the LLC looks to be moving west-northwest away from the core of the eastly shear shown on the cimss 850 millibar maps. Maybe north of 12 now. You can also see that the small MLC/LLC feature has went under the new developing clouds over the last frame. I'm not 100 percent sure about this but I'm sure about the overall broad LLC.

So as it moves more north=less eastly shear. Also the convection(Wave derek is talking about) should make a little space north of 12 for slightly more faverable enviroment for some slow development.

[kenl01]

I really think it's going to be awhile.................

[SouthFloridawx]

I think the 805's Position is not quite correct.

I see it being east of there.



http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[SouthFloridawx]

As it moves west it may be in a much better environment with less shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Derek Ortt]

SSD could no longer give a Dvorak number on this system... not even a too weak

[CrazyC83]

As it moves west it may be in a much better environment with less shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Less shear? More like NO shear...

[mike815]

yea but lookin at it i agree that this is going to take much longer with the enviornment it is currently in but it will change and i still think this could form

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is just amazing on how unfaverable the Atlantic is turning out to be. I think the SOI talking about on the other thread being neg. Which makes everything like a el nino have something to do with it.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is just amazing on how unfaverable the Atlantic is turning out to be. I think the SOI talking about on the other thread being neg. Which makes everything like a el nino have something to do with it.

That's why I"m wondering how the heck do any hurricanes suppose to develop this year in the Atlantic? And where's the evidence that this shear and hostile conditions will even decrease as time goes on??

I'm starting to get a bit skeptical about this season myelf now. I just don't see any evidence that things are changing and conditions are getting better.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 070221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

[Extremeweatherguy]

ABNT20 KNHC 070221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

wow. That is an impressive TWO from Franklin.

[Brent]

ABNT20 KNHC 070221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

Debby? Is that you?

[AJC3]

This is just amazing on how unfaverable the Atlantic is turning out to be. I think the SOI talking about on the other thread being neg. Which makes everything like a el nino have something to do with it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis.html

None of the genesis paramaters in the tropical Atlantic MDR have been particularly unfavorable for any length of time. WVBT has been a bit above normal, perhaps signifying a little more drying/subsidence than normal. However, shear and instability haven't looked particularly detrimental to TC genesis.

In fact, the current formation probability is well above the climo.




I don't need to remind ya that it's only 6 August, do I?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This is just amazing on how unfaverable the Atlantic is turning out to be. I think the SOI talking about on the other thread being neg. Which makes everything like a el nino have something to do with it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis.html

None of the genesis paramaters in the tropical Atlantic MDR have been particularly unfavorable for any length of time. WVBT has been a bit above normal, perhaps signifying a little more drying/subsidence than normal. However, shear and instability haven't looked particularly detrimental to TC genesis.

In fact, the current formation probability is well above the climo.




I don't need to remind ya that it's only 6 August, do I?

Well said AJ!

[gilbert88]

HA! Last year after Irene everyone was complaining about the season being "extremely unfavorable for development". I'm not falling for that again.

[Weatherfreak14]

Oh boy, looks to go into caribbian. But then what.

[caneman]

gosh reading all the posts before 10:30 outlook you'd think the season had ended. Come on people. This season is right on track for a normal season. And it could be that alot more activity will come later making it an above average season.