Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WindRunner]

There looks to be a defined LLC just to the east of the convection. So its likely not broad any more. For one the convection is trying to develop over it. You are right thunder44 about the strong eastly shear which is pushing the convection to the east. But overall this sytsem is becoming slowly becoming organized.

If this was in the gulf this would be a depression. Just look at it that way. The nhc will likely wait intill the convection pulls over the LLC with a 2.0 to 2.5 t before upgrading.

How are you seeing a LLC when vis imagery went dark an hour or two ago?

[rnbaida]

could he be using the shortwave sat?

[SouthFloridawx]

[rnbaida]

this thing has some seious convection with it...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Right here
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

SouthFloridawx its about 50 miles west of where you got it.

[SouthFloridawx]

Right here
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

SouthFloridawx its about 50 miles west of where you got it.

Matt this is from the SSD storm position page.

As soon as the updated one comes out I will post it.

[WindRunner]

Right here
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

SouthFloridawx its about 50 miles west of where you got it.

That shows a circulation, yes, but there is no way you can tell if it's a low-level circ or not, and that also makes it extremely difficult to tell if it's closed, as the sat image moves with the system. From what I can figure with that, though, it does appear to be closed. However, even if it were a LLC and were closed, the NHC won't be able to safely verify that until tomorrows vis comes, so unless the thing develops an eye tonight, nothing will happen until tomorrow @ 11am at the earliest.

[cycloneye]

Right here
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

SouthFloridawx its about 50 miles west of where you got it.

That shows a circulation, yes, but there is no way you can tell if it's a low-level circ or not, and that also makes it extremely difficult to tell if it's closed, as the sat image moves with the system. From what I can figure with that, though, it does appear to be closed. However, even if it were a LLC and were closed, the NHC won't be able to safely verify that until tomorrows vis comes, so unless the thing develops an eye tonight, nothing will happen until tomorrow @ 11am at the earliest.

Unless a ship is in the area or a quicScat reveals stronger winds and a closed circulation.

[rnbaida]

Hey guys, where can i get some good models on this invest? I like the model the jeff master uses on his wuderground blog but where can i get that does anybody know?

[WindRunner]

Yeah, that too. Though I think that they'd still wait if it were a quikscat . . . but that's just me.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is a clearly closed LLC on that quickscat. Its 11 north/40 west which makes it more west then I thought.

[JonathanBelles]

stil no north wind!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You can see it has south wind...The western Part is weak but thats normal.

[Derek Ortt]

This looks considerably less organized this afternoon that 12 hours ago

The low is lagging at least a hundred miles behind the convection, which may be associated with a tropical wave.

Still could form into a TD, but less likely this evening that this morning

[jimvb]

Up to now this season has been a dud. It's been a season to contradict the global warming theory with. Not much so far, and GFS was showing not much in the next couple of weeks...

WAIT!

The 2006 Aug 6 18Z run has brought back the Great 2006 Cape Verde Storm again! It still goes fish, but it comes closer to the East Coast than previous runs have. Not only that, but more and more storms get generated. At 384 Hours, 2006 Aug 22 1800 Z, it shows at least four, and possibly five, tropical systems. Two are out in the Atlantic, one is in the eastern Caribbean, one is starting to formulate off the coast of Africa, and there may be one hugging the Nicaragua coast. Maybe the active season has yet to come. 2004's record-setting season did not start in earnest until August 13.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on the satelilte the center is about 37 west. With the last frame showing some convection forming just north of it.

[Brent]

Up to now this season has been a dud. It's been a season to contradict the global warming theory with. Not much so far, and GFS was showing not much in the next couple of weeks...

WAIT!

The 2006 Aug 6 18Z run has brought back the Great 2006 Cape Verde Storm again! It still goes fish, but it comes closer to the East Coast than previous runs have. Not only that, but more and more storms get generated. At 384 Hours, 2006 Aug 22 1800 Z, it shows at least four, and possibly five, tropical systems. Two are out in the Atlantic, one is in the eastern Caribbean, one is starting to formulate off the coast of Africa, and there may be one hugging the Nicaragua coast. Maybe the active season has yet to come. 2004's record-setting season did not start in earnest until August 13.

[WmE]

Up to now this season has been a dud. It's been a season to contradict the global warming theory with. Not much so far, and GFS was showing not much in the next couple of weeks...

WAIT!

The 2006 Aug 6 18Z run has brought back the Great 2006 Cape Verde Storm again! It still goes fish, but it comes closer to the East Coast than previous runs have. Not only that, but more and more storms get generated. At 384 Hours, 2006 Aug 22 1800 Z, it shows at least four, and possibly five, tropical systems. Two are out in the Atlantic, one is in the eastern Caribbean, one is starting to formulate off the coast of Africa, and there may be one hugging the Nicaragua coast. Maybe the active season has yet to come. 2004's record-setting season did not start in earnest until August 13.

So, now it's time to start a new this-season-is-a-dud- thread

[Thunder44]

That is a clearly closed LLC on that quickscat. Its 11 north/40 west which makes it more west then I thought.

It looks like an elongated area of low pressure at the surface from about 45W to 30W. Satellite imagery shows no LLC that far west.