Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

Don't think so the flow is strongly to the west from 850 millibars to 200 mililbars. A break is around 35 north/40 west but it should not effect this system at all as long as it stays south of 15. So I think its going ot go west or west-northwest at about 10 to 15 knots.

That's exactly what I was thinking.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

[jhamps10]

IF it develops tonight, tomorrow, or tuesday morning, then I will go either fish or East coast, but if it happens after noon tuesday, then GOM


BUT we are still a LONG, LONG way from even thinking the final track here, this could change really big.

[Dean4Storms]

Does look better. Looks like we could be seeing Debby by the middle of the week.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heck if your rebuilding your house on the gulf expect more hurricanes thats a fact of life. I still stand by that its not a very good idea because we will have alot more hurricanes. I think all houses should be moved to at least 10 feet above sea level...In at least 2 miles from the coast. With a 5 foot levy to protect the houses from surge.

If it develops at any time the flow will take it west or west-northwest on less it go's north of 15.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where do the pros think this will eventually end up? The GOM or the East Coast?

Thats at least 9-13 days off

Oh I know. I was just wondering if the pro mets had any early opinions on what area would be most likely.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AND
LIMITED...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There really holding back big time...I know why its franklin...If stewart was writing it he would say maybe a depression tonight or tomarrow.

[Cyclenall]

There really holding back big time...I know why its franklin...If stewart was writing it he would say maybe a depression tonight or tomarrow.

Oh, that was written by Franklin? No wonder. He is Conservative on the writing.

[WindRunner]

There really holding back big time...I know why its franklin...If stewart was writing it he would say maybe a depression tonight or tomarrow.

That's stretching it a bit, but he would be more optimistic.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

With the system being so far away from land I would think they would hold off on designating it a TD until they were absolutely certain it was.

[Thunder44]

There really holding back big time...I know why its franklin...If stewart was writing it he would say maybe a depression tonight or tomarrow.

There some some easterly shear over the system that preventing thunderstorms from remaining over the broad center. It isn't close to being a TD yet. It also hasn't totally separated itself from the monsoon trough yet. "Slow development" is the way to go with that inhibiting factor.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at this satellite looks just east of the convection you can now see a small well defined LLC. In yes it has strong shear over it but its very close if not a tropical depression. I been noting that eastly shear for the last 2 hours...Once convection forms over it then t numbers should pop up to 2.0.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[destro34]

td by tomorrow

[28_Storms]

TD by tomorrow if this continues.

[mike815]

yea i was thinkin more tues wed but maybe tomorrow it will pull it off

[Thunder44]

I say it will probably be another 24 to 36hrs, before this will become a TD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There looks to be a defined LLC just to the east of the convection. So its likely not broad any more. For one the convection is trying to develop over it. You are right thunder44 about the strong eastly shear which is pushing the convection to the east. But overall this sytsem is becoming slowly becoming organized.

If this was in the gulf this would be a depression. Just look at it that way. The nhc will likely wait intill the convection pulls over the LLC with a 2.0 to 2.5 t before upgrading.

[vacanechaser]

There looks to be a defined LLC just to the east of the convection. So its likely not broad any more. For one the convection is trying to develop over it. You are right thunder44 about the strong eastly shear which is pushing the convection to the east. But overall this sytsem is becoming slowly becoming organized.

If this was in the gulf this would be a depression. Just look at it that way. The nhc will likely wait intill the convection pulls over the LLC with a 2.0 to 2.5 t before upgrading.

i'm not to sure i see a llc yet... i think it is more mid level right now... looks like it is coming together though... give it 2 days or so...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[rnbaida]

I am certain that we will have a TD by this time monday....

[alicia-w]

and those of you who have mentioned the Gulf, I'm flying back from Germany on Friday. What is your proposed timetable?