Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[sevenleft]

Keep in mind there is no set wind threshold for a Tropical Depression. It is more based on surface low organization and potential for development....

[Bailey1777]

Just for coversations sake if 48hr's from now this became a storm what would the most likely track be with what you see the set up being in the future?

[jusforsean]

Just for coversations sake if 48hr's from now this became a storm what would the most likely track be with what you see the set up being in the future?

yeah what he said????????????????

[O Town]

Here is the 18z/2pm IR. Doesn't look as good as it did this morning to me.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A tropical depression needs a closed LLC=closed wind field. So that is why you need winds in all dirc to get a closed LLC. Then you need convection to form a warm core between the inside in out...Which helps make the inbalace to form this wind field. A system with a closed LLC in some convection is most likely a depression like proven with systems in the gulf...With recon. So as low as 1.0 can be depression....Remember Alberto for along time...

I believe many eastern pacific systems go along time before they are upgraded. But thats my option.

[SouthFloridawx]

Just for coversations sake if 48hr's from now this became a storm what would the most likely track be with what you see the set up being in the future?

Looking at the GFS low to mid level steering flow at first through 72 hours we would have a general Westward track then more of a WNW track. That would all depend on the strength of this system.

[NONAME]

No but it just past the durnial Minimum. I'd bet that convection will flare up a little tonight.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

It looks like we have a broad and elongated area of low pressure at the surface.

[Thunder44]

06/1745 UTC 11.7N 36.0W T1.0/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

It does look less organzied this afternoon. The thunderstorm activity looks more ragged and is being blown off to the west well removed from the center.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Wthrman13]

Yep, it's still attached to that monsoon trough. It needs to form a concentrated circulation and move off of that trough axis for it to further develop as a TC. It's trying, but not quite there yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking through out the Atmopshere from 850 millibars to 300 millibars there a strong eastly flow. Which is starting to add easly shear...Which is why you see it moving faster but also the convection out running its center. The center is at 12 north/35.5 west. It looks to be pretty much closed but broad. Even so there is a upper ull north of 35 north instead of a high...This flow will force it to move west or west-northwest. If it got to strong and north of 15 it would likely go northwestward(GFS thinking of the turn to the northwest). As of right now it should pick up speed maybe 20 mph.

Which should not help its development chances. But we have seen systems develop with speeds of that. There doe's look to be at least a broad LLC.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well as far as I know low level circulations are not steered by Upper Level Lows. We saw Chris being affected by and Upper Level Low but, it continued following the lower level flow towards the west or west north west.

We did see the Mid-Level Circulation ripped off of the low level center and then pushed down into the Caribbean. As far as I knew the low level circulations are steered by influences in the lower levels until they got more organized and then they were influenced by the upper tropospherics synoptics.

I think we'll see a General Westward Movement of this broad and elongated area of low pressure move under the ridge and into the Caribbean. The models wanted to erode the Atlantic Ridge then we saw the opposite happen and Chris moved right underneath it.

Expect a W movement through 72 hours as it is still developing then a WNW movement either into the North Eastern Caribbean or the South Eastern Bahamas.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
Current low to mid level steering flow.

I posted this in another forum also.

[miamicanes177]

18Z run in and looks like a more southern path and slightly more strengthening. http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[AJC3]

In an interesting twist in the world of "model-ology", the 12Z ECM seems to like 91L more than the 12Z GFS/UKM/CMC.

Sorry, don't have any links with me...just going by what I have in front of me (AWIPS).

[Trugunzn]

[ConvergenceZone]

18Z run in and looks like a more southern path and slightly more strengthening. http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

Is there a graphic of the models anywhere? I just see a red "x" where the graphic would be.??

I figured the models would shift south. I was a bit shocked they were trying to recurve it so quickly.... The longer it waits to develop, the more bad news that spells for the islands.

[ROCK]

18Z run in and looks like a more southern path and slightly more strengthening. http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

Is there a graphic of the models anywhere? I just see a red "x" where the graphic would be.??

I figured the models would shift south. I was a bit shocked they were trying to recurve it so quickly.... The longer it waits to develop, the more bad news that spells for the islands.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_91.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

thanx for posting the latest model plots. I think the GFDL(which I normally like) is on crack this time. On the other hand, if you look at the other models, this storm may be way too far south to affect the USA in the long-term.

[SouthFloridawx]

It looks like it is currently being influenced by some mid level shear but, as it moves more westward it may be in a more favorable environment.