Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rnbaida]

The NHC has just moved its atlantic floater 2 to this new invest 91.... take a look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Usually the models have an eastward bias. I am gong to agree with Cape Verde Wave that the ridge is being underestimated by the global models as usual.

[rnbaida]

right now there is only a small area of convection right in the middle of the ocean... I am starting to see a small area of convection flaring up on the water vapor sat... We will have to watch the amount of convection in the area.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, I would have to say that I think it's going to continue to go west. Since the general consensus here is that it won't develop anytime soon, I don't see it curving out to sea.

[rnbaida]

if it develops within the next 24-48 hours we may see a curve out to sea.

[Nimbus]

The ULL's have been digging in the mid Atlantic this season so Derek is probably correct about increased shear. 91L seems to be sinking south a little but the GFDL shows a pretty clear change in track at 42N.

[Thunder44]

most of the models pointing toward the caribbean aren't worth a hill of beans... not with a diving UL at 50W

I see that ULL you are talking about Derek. We'll see how far south it goes.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Well whatever sheer it is going to face in the future is unknown but, it will be moving into and area of less windshear 5-10kts soon.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[ConvergenceZone]

if it develops within the next 24-48 hours we may see a curve out to sea.

yep, and I don't see it developing that soon, and I don't think the national weather service does either, thus the continued westward movement.

[rnbaida]

Post what your 24 hour wind and pressure forecast are for this system.

[rnbaida]

35mph 1011mb

[tgenius]

35mph 1011mb

That would be TD #4 then!

[rnbaida]

[rnbaida]

how do i post an image for you guys to see?

[rnbaida]

[SouthFloridawx]

how do i post an image for you guys to see?

Right click on the image

Click properties

copy the link that is provided and paste it in here.

[rnbaida]

[rnbaida]

shear is gonna go down

[Bailey1777]

Dvorak 1.5/1.5

[rnbaida]

can someone explain thh dvorak?