Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png
Check out latest QuikScat..You can see the circulation at 12N 35W...It now presents a 45 knots wind barb!

[Derek Ortt]

very close to having a closed circulation

not much of a south wind yet... but should have one wihtin the next 24-36 hours

[Derek Ortt]

also,

watch the upper low near 25N and 52W. This low is dropping to the south, which may very well cause serious shear over this system and may be why the reliable models turn this to the north and do not indicate much intensification

[Air Force Met]

"That is all", that's classic AFM. mbaida they are right why come on here and shoot down everything. We obviously enjoy watching these systems even when there's little to watch. Until you get your degree in meteorology and 20 years on the job under your belt I think you should watch and learn with the rest of us.

Here's the deal about learning...

If you only watch the stuff that is a threat...you never learn. You learn by watching everything. Even if it is an east of 50W fish...you can still learn for when it's not an east of 50W fish. A storm is a storm...and the more you watch...the more experience you gain.

If you only shoot your rifle during battle...you'll miss the enemy. That's why they take you to the range and make you shoot at practice targets over and over again!

[destro34]

if its form,now will be a fish to me,but if it pass the 50, then we will be in trouble down here in the islands

[Derek Ortt]

may not be in trouble if it doesn't form now

if it doesn't form within the next 48H, it may never form since shear may very well increase from the UL I posted above

[AnnularCane]

ok, then it's really not worth watching it if it going to curve out to sea...

It's not exactly written in stone that it's going to curve out to sea. Even if it does, it's still worth watching, just for the fun of it (but that's just me).

[destro34]

thanks derek , i was worry...

[wxman57]

ok, then it's really not worth watching it if it going to curve out to sea...

It's not exactly written in stone that it's going to curve out to sea. Even if it does, it's still worth watching, just for the fun of it (but that's just me).

If it doesn't develop, then it'll just track westward. Eventually it may reach the western Caribbean sea (8-9 days) and it could become a threat there.

[ConvergenceZone]

Now if this storm doesn't form, or the one behind it, THEN, maybe I'll start agreeing that PERHAPS conditions out there are too hostile to support much of an active hurricane season, because by then, we will be heading into mid August, but I probably can't say that for sure until the beginning of September. Keep in mind, I"m not saying DEAD season like a couple have said, but maybe not as active as the last 3 or 4 years. It just seem to be that I've never heard the word "shear" talked about as much as I've heard it talked about this year. Anytime a storm forms there seems to be some type of shear in the vicinity. Perhaps this is what they were alluding to on CNN. I"m sure there will be a couple of strong storms in September though. It's hard to say about October. Sometimes the season decides to shut off early. I guess we'll have to just wait and see what the rest of August brings us before we have our answer.

[cajungal]

How is this going to be a fish? Looks to be heading toward the Caribbean to me and the Caribbean is usually the gateway for the GOM. Forgive me if I am wrong, I did not get home until nearly 4 a.m. and maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me.

[rnbaida]

i need the nhc to switch one of their floaters to this system..

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N32W
DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LAST FEW SURFACE MAP ANALYSES HAVE
SHOWN A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW
CENTER. THE 07/0600 UTC MAP SHOWS A WAVE ALONG 36W. THE THINKING
NOW IS THAT A WAVE REALLY MAY NOT EXIST. WE JUST ARE DEALING
WITH THE SITUATION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
A FEW CELLS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W. OTHER WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH STRETCHES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 8N28W 6N34W 5N41W.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well I see we have a new invect huh?

[rnbaida]

There is no way we can get a recon in it right now... I guess we will have to wait until it gets closer to the islands...

[rnbaida]

Does anyone have a good sat image on invest 91?

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[NONAME]

They will most likely Use Dvorak T-numbers for intensity Untill recon can get in at 55W

[Derek Ortt]

most of the models pointing toward the caribbean aren't worth a hill of beans... not with a diving UL at 50W

[SouthFloridawx]

most of the models pointing toward the caribbean aren't worth a hill of beans... not with a diving UL at 50W

I thought that ULL's didn't steer systems? I mean correct me if I am wrong cause I certainly could be.