Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[olddude]

Sigh, 'tis the season...

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 061130
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.3 32.1 280./ 7.0
6 11.3 32.7 276./ 6.0
12 11.7 33.8 288./10.7
18 11.7 35.0 273./11.7
24 11.6 36.0 261./10.1
30 11.2 37.5 259./15.4
36 10.8 38.3 239./ 9.3
42 10.7 39.2 264./ 8.5
48 10.5 40.0 260./ 8.3
54 10.4 40.4 257./ 3.5
60 10.3 40.9 255./ 5.7
66 10.8 41.4 314./ 6.5
72 11.0 42.1 292./ 7.4
78 11.5 42.8 304./ 8.0
84 12.1 43.5 309./ 9.5
90 12.8 44.2 315./ 9.6
96 13.5 45.1 309./11.2
102 14.2 46.1 302./12.5
108 14.9 47.0 309./10.4
114 15.4 47.8 303./ 9.6
120 16.1 48.7 310./11.6
126 16.6 49.4 302./ 8.4



6z GFDL text run.

[Derek Ortt]

the only dynamical model, the GFDL, has the system moving NW and clearing the islands. The other models do not take into account changes in the atmosphere

[Scorpion]

Wow its looking good this morning. Very interesting indeed.

[cycloneye]

06/1145 UTC 12.0N 33.1W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


Almost a depression.

[Derek Ortt]

this looks good

however, may be another short lived system The globals are not very bullish with this system

[Scorpion]

I thought they were? The GFS and CMC have taken it up to hurricane status many times.

[Thunder44]

709
WHXX01 KWBC 061242
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060806 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060806 1200 060807 0000 060807 1200 060808 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 33.3W 12.3N 35.6W 12.5N 38.0W 12.6N 40.7W
BAMM 11.8N 33.3W 12.2N 35.7W 12.1N 38.4W 11.7N 41.3W
A98E 11.8N 33.3W 12.3N 35.5W 12.7N 37.9W 13.1N 40.6W
LBAR 11.8N 33.3W 12.3N 35.5W 12.5N 37.8W 13.0N 40.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060808 1200 060809 1200 060810 1200 060811 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 43.5W 12.0N 49.1W 11.8N 55.2W 12.9N 60.4W
BAMM 11.2N 44.6W 9.5N 51.3W 8.6N 58.0W 9.3N 64.5W
A98E 13.4N 43.4W 14.3N 49.1W 14.9N 54.5W 15.3N 58.9W
LBAR 13.2N 43.2W 13.4N 48.2W 13.7N 53.2W 13.4N 56.8W
SHIP 38KTS 45KTS 43KTS 48KTS
DSHP 38KTS 45KTS 43KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 31.1W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 29.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

12z models have initial position at 11.8N 33.3W that very close or under the the cluster of thunderstorms we see now.

[cycloneye]

The BAMS track towards the Lesser Antilles while GFDL tracks NW clearing the Antilles

[bvigal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 AM AST SUN AUG 6 2006

DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOONAL TROF FROM W COAST OF
AFRICA GENERALLY ALONG 11-12N AND NOW EXTENDING TO 55W...IS IN MY
VIEW BEST ORGANIZATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC SINCE 1995.
ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OUT OF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE TROF...AND STLT IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SUGGESTS THE TROF SEPARATING INTO VORTICES...ONE ALONG
THE APPROACHING WAVE NEAR 10N 53.5W AND THE OTHER A MORE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION BETWEEN 29 AND 40W. THIS LATTER LOOKING MORE ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT PER STLT IMAGERY AND NHC NOW RUNNING NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ON IT. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STRONG ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST...AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR LOCAL
NEIGHBORHOOD...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND ON STEADY WNW
MOTION.

This really raised my eyebrows when I read it early this morning. 1995 was the year of Luis and Marilyn, the double-whammy here!

[cycloneye]

Yes bvigal,that sentence caused me concern.Let's see what kind of pattern the system has in terms of how strong the ridge will be.

[cycloneye]

12:00z Graphic.

[bvigal]

It's 9:05. Where is the 8am TWD?

[Derek Ortt]

the globals have backed way off, and even SHIPS is not terribly aggressive with this

[ThunderMate]

Look at GFDL track...lol. looks good but may need a few days to get its act together.

[AtlanticWind]

The Gfdl takes this to hurricane status and the globals are sometimes slow to pick up on storms <like Katrina>

[cycloneye]

[senorpepr]

Looking at the 12Z models plots from the NHC, looks like TS strength at 24-36 hour point, although I tend to believe that may be slightly aggressive.

Through the next five days, GFDI and GTSI solutions are the most aggressive at 59kt. LGEM is the conservative one, peaking 91L at 34kt.

The interesting thing is the track at 120hr.

Some of the climo-based models bring it toward the northern Lesser Antilles.
Some of the other models send it to South America, some north of Haiti, and some out to sea.


It's still plenty early.

[cycloneye]

In other words Mike,there is no consensus in terms of the future track.It all depends on what synoptics features the system gets in the track thru the Atlantic.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like significant easterly shear over this system, with the convection a full degree west of the center