chris remnants thread #8

[LaBreeze]

Chris is obviously having an identity crisis - but whatever he is will make a Mexican visit in a few days. Chris may have his sombrero on in time for a little hat dance and a taco or two.

[RattleMan]

Oddly enough, the 06/0000Z Current Generation Probability Map ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif ) has Chris as a cyclone icon again, where it didn't in the 05/1200Z and 1800Z runs...

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like some of the model trends have it going into South Texas more so than Mexico... They have jumped a little to the north since the last time I checked...

[RQSTR]

Why NHC still has "tropical depression Chris"? I also truly think that a regeneration is possible in the GOM.

[Thunder44]

709
ABNT20 KNHC 060901
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS...IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...FLORIDA
KEYS...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE REMNANTS OF CHRIS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Sanibel]

As they say in the surfing song:


" Ha, ha, ha wipe out! "

[Innotech]

well Ive held off long enough *pulls out the plate of crow

[olddude]

It was kind of amusing last night when a small cell from the remnants crossed the islands. The power went out for a devastating 10 minutes. I stepped out on my balcony to hear 2 automatic gennys fire up in the neighborhood and then several more portables start. At least we are prepared down here.
Scott

[O Town]

Chris was looking like he was fighting last night, but this morning by the looks of it what was there has been ripped to shreds by some shear.

[Thunder44]

It was no suprise to me that convection diminished during the overnight hours, because most of it was caused by daytime heating and land interaction with Cuba. The system no longer has a LLC, but still there is a wave to be tracked across the GOM over the next few days. We may see more flare-ups before this system can really get going again. It will be slow though.

[Thunder44]

Chris was looking like he was fighting last night, but this morning by the looks of it what was there has been ripped to shreds by some shear.

Shear is not too strong it's only been around 10-15kts

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[rockyman]

The "center" of Chris appears to be offshore north of Cuba/south of the Keys--based on the first few visible frames

[Stormavoider]

It was no suprise to me that convection diminished during the overnight hours, because most of it was caused by daytime heating and land interaction with Cuba. The system no longer has a LLC, but still there is a wave to be tracked across the GOM over the next few days. We may see more flare-ups before this system can really get going again. It will be slow though.

Is that a residual LLC just offshore at about 82W (or just off the northern most point of Cuba)? Or, is it a dieing outflow? It seems to be turning.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

[Stratosphere747]

Not going to jump on board yet...

But there does look to be a hint of circulation..

[Stormavoider]

OK I'll jump. I think that is the LLC. It may be debatable that it meets the "closed circ" criteria.

[Stormavoider]

OK, I'll LEAP. There is a LLC just off Havana that will meet anyone's definition.

[Frank2]

The wave that once was TS Chris really did flare up last night, with several hours of distant thunder in this area, between 10 and 2 this morning, but, it seems to have weakened overnight...

Frank

[rnbaida]

I told all of you yesterday the the convection was a trick and that it should not be taken as something major.

[Stormavoider]

I guess we have been told.

[rnbaida]

Not to be mean or anything but there is no need to get excited over convection... Doesnt it seem funny?