Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[ts_kakolina]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[ts_kakolina]

Code: Select all

000
WHXX01 KWBC 060827
CHGHUR
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060806  0600 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          060806  0600   060806  1800   060807  0600   060807  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    11.2N  32.0W   11.9N  34.1W   12.3N  36.5W   12.5N  39.1W
  BAMM    11.2N  32.0W   11.8N  34.2W   12.0N  36.7W   11.8N  39.3W
  A98E    11.2N  32.0W   11.5N  33.6W   12.0N  35.7W   12.3N  38.2W
  LBAR    11.2N  32.0W   11.6N  33.9W   12.1N  36.1W   12.7N  38.6W
  SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          40KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          40KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          060808  0600   060809  0600   060810  0600   060811  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.3N  41.7W   11.1N  47.3W    9.9N  54.1W   10.7N  61.2W
  BAMM    11.2N  42.0W    8.8N  47.8W    6.9N  54.5W    7.0N  61.7W
  A98E    12.4N  41.0W   13.0N  46.7W   13.2N  52.4W   13.1N  57.2W
  LBAR    13.2N  41.2W   13.8N  46.3W   13.9N  51.4W   13.0N  55.1W
  SHIP        43KTS          52KTS          54KTS          50KTS
  DSHP        43KTS          52KTS          54KTS          33KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  11.2N LONCUR =  32.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
  LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 =  30.6W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
  LATM24 =  10.8N LONM24 =  29.2W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$


 


[ts_kakolina]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hope it becomes our first cane. To bad I can't jump up in down any more.

Here is the discussion from Stewart.

ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

[abajan]

Those model plots look ominous.
Yesterday I assumed it would be a fish. Now I ain't so sure.

[mike815]

no u see its way tooo early to really say but i honestly didnt get the feeling this was going to be a fish but its too hard to say it may and probably will change again

[Thunder44]

I see some rotation this morning, but surface low pressure still looks very broad and elongated.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is starting to fire over it...Which should help to tighten it. The quickscats at 6:15 utc shown the west side which has all that would show a LLC. So I expect this to at least have some what of a broad LLC.

[Thunder44]

It has a chance to get better organzied in the next few days or so.

[mike815]

yea this isnt going to just take off it is definetly going to take some time to get going

[cycloneye]

It has to compact more as right now it's broad.But some more convection is forming near the low so slowly it's organizing.

[mike815]

ever so slowly it is i agree i think it needs a good few days though before it becomes a td

[cycloneye]

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Uhoh. Right when Chris is almost gone we have another Invest.

[mufasa157]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 AM AST SUN AUG 6 2006

DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOONAL TROF FROM W COAST OF
AFRICA GENERALLY ALONG 11-12N AND NOW EXTENDING TO 55W...IS IN MY
VIEW BEST ORGANIZATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC SINCE 1995.
ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OUT OF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE TROF...AND STLT IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SUGGESTS THE TROF SEPARATING INTO VORTICES...ONE ALONG
THE APPROACHING WAVE NEAR 10N 53.5W AND THE OTHER A MORE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION BETWEEN 29 AND 40W. THIS LATTER LOOKING MORE ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT PER STLT IMAGERY AND NHC NOW RUNNING NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ON IT. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STRONG ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST...AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR LOCAL
NEIGHBORHOOD...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND ON STEADY WNW
MOTION.

[Normandy]

Wow thats gonna be a BIG system if it develops

[cycloneye]

The potential is there for this to be the first hurricane of the season.

[Normandy]

Mmmm....looking at the vis loops this might be a TD.
Looks like the Islands might have their hands full soon

[storms in NC]

When will the ridge move up or weaken? This seem to be the trouble for staying so low and going into the Islands. Whe I first seen it the other day I though it would be a fish but now from what I have read and see it will stay to the south. Am I right or wrong?

[Lowpressure]

I am with Normandy, this could be a large system. Islands might be in for a ride later this week and maybe beyond looking downstream.