13N/19W: new candidate for Cape Verde development?

[MiamiensisWx]

Based on visible and infra-red imagery and loops, a new low/tropical wave may be forming near 11N and 19.8 to 20.1W just off the western African coastline just behind the larger low/wave ahead of it within the ITCZ. This loop shows some potential divergence at the middle levels near 11N and 20W, potentially indicating a new low gradually forming. In addition, this and signs of weak curved banding indicate shear may prove to be favorable for gradual development, especially partly due to the synoptics being provided by the wave/low in front.

Mid-level shear has been decreasing and is now in a rather favorable divergence environment being provided in the east-central Atlantic. This could provide addition aid in the slow development of a new low/wave near 11N and 20W, and convective consolidation there is showing signs of it.

Due to an establishing anticyclone to the north of it, I think this may well be one of our better candidates for Cape Verde development down the road potentially. Also, the Bermuda-Azores High ridging synoptics could indicate a potential threat down the road IF this gradually develops.

Personally, due to all these factors, I think we are seeing the beginning of our first true chances of a Cape Verde system out of the area blossoming near 11N and 20W. Any thoughts?

NOTE - This is NOT a second thread on the larger wave/low being discussed in another thread on the new wave off Africa. This is on a new wave/low forming behind the larger low/wave in front (also a candidate for some development). Personally, this new one I'm discussing here I believe may have a better chance for greater development down the road than the wave in front.

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, here is the area I'm referring to...



Also, latitude is in it's favor for development.

[mike815]

ive been watchin this area since yesterday morn i think it has a good chance at the moment. it very well could be our next system though its early.

[Cyclenall]

I have also noticed this wave and how it sticks out among the other waves. You are right about it being a candidate for Cape Verde development down the road.

[MiamiensisWx]

Area I'm referring to is circled in red in image above. SSTs/heat content (ESPECIALLY heat content) in that area are also in favor of development for this new area I'm referring to. Pressures have also lowered a bit in that region.

[MiamiensisWx]

I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the global models pick this up soon, likely as a weak low pressure area at first.

[MiamiensisWx]

Any more thoughts? This area deserves attention.

[mike815]

there has been models pickin up on developement in this area for a number of days now

[SouthFloridawx]

I am wondering how these to lows will interact. However eventhough the wave in front of it has some light mid level windshear the next couple of days are going to be interesting.

I too have noticed a Anti Cyclone developing http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg and there is also one out there in the central atlantic. One thing is for sure is that we're gonna see some development from that region soon.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

[MiamiensisWx]

If the two systems separate enough and the anticyclone flattens out, development from both of these two systems I believe may be possible.

By the way, this thread is NOT on the large wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands... this thread is on the smaller system near 11N/20W featuring convective consolidation closer to the African coast.

[SouthFloridawx]

If the two systems separate enough and the anticyclone flattens out, development from both of these two systems I believe may be possible.

Seeing as though this new potential low is forming and moving faster than the one in front of it. I think these two will see interaction and one of them become the dominant low in the future.

A 1010 MB LOW WAS ADDED AT 05/1800 UTC NEAR 11N30W REMAINING
NEAR STATIONARY. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

[Scorpion]

I sure hope if they do develop they stay away from the islands.

[mike815]

hmmmm good analasis there time will tell but yea i think you could be right about that

[MiamiensisWx]

I think this new low may develop a bit faster than the larger wave ahead. If the synoptics play out, conditions could get more favorable for this new system while the larger wave ahead develops further west and much slower, while this one develops faster and grows in size. If that occurs, the current small size and better organization it has now is only going to help it. This new low near 11N and 20W may well become the more dominant developing system.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think there's no doubt that ONE of those 2 will develop. They just look too good that far east. It will be an interesting upcoming week.

[MiamiensisWx]

Again, this thread is discussing the one CIRCLED in red in the image I posted near the top, just to let all know.

[Scorpion]

Second wave looks much more organized than the first one. Very interesting. Perhaps the first one will give it some sort of protection?

[mike815]

but one of these may form maybe another topic for the other wave or put them both in here but one of these could become a big player down the road but it is very early to say much more

[MiamiensisWx]

Second wave looks much more organized than the first one. Very interesting. Perhaps the first one will give it some sort of protection?

With a building and flattening anticyclone to the north, that is a very real possibility that the second one eventually develops, with interaction with the wave in front aiding in development of the second wave near 11N/20W that is the subject of this thread.

If everything plays out, this second one may have just as much, if not more, better chances for more development than the first one in front of it.

[MiamiensisWx]

Dry air will also likely be less of a problem now due to better mixing and mid-level moisture/balance, helping this new second wave develop.

If this second wave grows larger and continues in organization, this will likely be the next INVEST, or at the very least be a good candidate.