weak el nino to inhibit the 2006 hurricane season??

[willjnewton]

I need someone to answer to this question please as I will read and learn
with very friendly people on storm2k but will a very weak el nino INHIBIT
the 2006 atlantic hurricane season???that's what I am very concerned about.


Thankyou so much for your responses

[vbhoutex]

It appears that a weak El Nino is beginning. It could, as the season progresses, inhibit TC formation some. It isn't really strong enough to do much yet, but if you look at the SST's in the PAcific now vs. at the begiining of the season there is a definite difference and that difference points to an El Nino beginning to happen.

[willjnewton]

really a el nino what a shame darn I love storms I bet you all do to

[vbhoutex]

We enjoy watching and predicting the tropics, but not when the storms cause damage and death.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I love storms to heck as long as the strong ones stay out ot see I don't mind having seasons with 20 or 30 named systems.

[willjnewton]

now finally I could send messages across to people but any way is a very weak el nino really going to cut this 2006 hurricane season short??? I thought that this 2006 hurricane season is going to be a active one and by the way I HATE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION I just love storms or hurricanes just for the fun of the excitement

[willjnewton]

hello where is the pro met's or other experts???

[cycloneye]

Will,next week NOAA will make a new forecast for el nino/la nina and Neutral conditions in the Pacific.On thursday,they will release the latest and you will know more about if el nino will come during the ladder part of the season.

[willjnewton]

and the other thing is I understand that noaa climate prediction center will give out their climate outlook on thursday but what do you all think they will say???

[Grease Monkey]

Remember, I think 2004 had weak el nino conditions and it was a pretty active season.

[cycloneye]

I think that they will say,neutral ENSO will prevail for the next 1-2 months.But the official word will come next thursday.

[willjnewton]

but will a weak el nino likely form though or will the eastern pacific remain neutral please give me the reasoning of why that you think this also???

[willjnewton]

okay never mind thankyou for the answer cycloneye

[cycloneye]

but will a weak el nino likely form though or will the eastern pacific remain neutral please give me the reasoning of why that you think this also???

Will,If you see the graphic,you will see that the temps ae somewhat warm but not in the order of el nino criteria right now.Average anomalys are around +0.5C to +1.0 in spots along the el nino 3-4 area.

[willjnewton]

but I lot of people keep on telling me that a el nino is forming so why did someone say neutral conditions in the eastern pacific???

[P.K.]

They are neutral conditions at the moment. Have a read of the latest BoM discussion on this which will be updated on Wednesday. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Here is the subsurface map to add to the one above. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_jun.gif

Edit - Sorry the chart hasn't updated as they said it had so I've changed it to the June one.

[willjnewton]

but a man told me at the noaa,climate prediction center his name is vernon kousky and he said that the eastern pacific is warming and that the australians do NOT have a very good data forecast so is a el nino really forming???

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A normal/neutral conditions happen when the trade winds blowing normally across the pacific. Which moves the warm water into the western Pacific....But a El nino develops when the trade winds weaken which then the water slides eastward. This change causes the lower pressures that normally are over the western Pacific to slide over the central to eastern Pacific. While a La nina is the opposite of a El nino cold waters forms over the eastern pacific.

Warm water=lower pressures which means rising...While cold water=higher pressure which is sinking. That is why when a El nino forms it strengthens the southern/subtropical jet into California...Also more convection forms over central America/central Pacific.

[willjnewton]

but is a el nino happening now or going to happen based on matt hurricane watchers thinking or based on some peoples thinking???

[P.K.]

is warming and that the australians do NOT have a very good data forecast so is a el nino really forming???

While I'm not going to claim to know much about these models I will say that the majority of them are forecasting neutral conditions for the next nine months so I'm not sure where this lack of data from the BoM is coming from. If you click on the links to the different models you can view the plumes for that model.