The Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands

Tampa_God · #101 Postby **Tampa_God** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:20 pm

Sorry to chage the subject, but looking at the NOGAPS at 120 hours, what is that near the South Texas Coast? Is it the leftovers of Chris?

#102 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:21 pm

Tampa_God wrote:Sorry to chage the subject, but looking at the NOGAPS at 120 hours, what is that near the South Texas Coast? Is it the leftovers of Chris?

probably

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #103 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:27 pm

Yes but not likely to happen since Chris is a goner...

Looking at this system there appears to be a broad low level flow(LLC) most likely monsoonal in nature. Theres a buoy at 34/35 west 13 north which has a northwest winds. Which shows it...ALso take a look at the cloud motion. I think a LLC maybe trying to close off where that area of convection is firing near 10.5 north/31 west. See when you get convection over a broad LLC/monsoonal system like this you trend to close it off near the convection. Also notice at 15 north see the stratocu that is dry air. Which doe's not look like it is getting into it yet. So a cyclone maybe forming at 10.5/31.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

#104 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:45 am

Yeah I think we may have something here in the very near future if the convection can continue flaring.

At first I was looking at the CIMSS site and noticed a lot of shear going on there. But, then I decided to look to 200mb analysis and noticed that the shear was not moving towards the convection but, away from the convection.
This is creating a good upper level divergent outflow for the convection that is blowing up tonight.

200mb analysis
:darrow:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

850mb analysis
:darrow:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg

Then I wanted to check the 850mb analysis and we see low level vorticity going on there also and maybe some low pressure trying to develop.

This is also shown very well on the CIMSS site here with the upper level divergence and lower level convergence graphics, from the University of Wisconsin.

850mb Vorticity

Also the E. Atlantic is in a Wet MJO phase as evidence here.

I think we're going to see some development out of the Eastern Atlantic sooner than we think.

As long as convection persists and we have good upper and lower level conditions there is no reason why this area should not develop eventually.

wxmann_91 · #105 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:47 am

SouthFlorida, your maps show very meager LL Convergence/UL Divergence.

#106 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:50 am

wxmann_91 wrote:SouthFlorida, your maps show very meager LL Convergence/UL Divergence.

You got anything better going on right now?

Cyclenall · #107 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:00 am

No wonder Chris is having (or had) a hard time, the Wet MJO is simply not there at all. It's all in the East Atlantic which means CV season starting soon.

mobilebay · #108 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 3:59 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050851
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST
OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
:boared:

Normandy · #109 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 4:31 am

Thats gonna be an invest soon

#110 Postby **N2FSU** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:14 am

Blob watch # 256 here:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

Nice one about to roll off of Africa.
One of these days ONE of these might actually develop!

#111 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:48 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 5 2006

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

#112 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:07 pm

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

The Canadian is now keying in on the area and not the area to the east around 52 W or so as mentioned in the TWD yesterday.

#113 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:08 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 05 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 31W/32W BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. MOST OF THE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBED WEATHER IS
WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 25W-38W.

calculatedrisk · #114 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:49 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:MOST OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBED WEATHER IS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 25W-38W.

Here is the 18:15 UTC Meteosat:

There might be another area of interest behind the one mentioned.

#115 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:50 pm

You can see a very broad and very large area of low pressure going on out there. This will end up being a large storm. It is moving very very slowly at the west and should be reinforced by the latest wave that came off of Africa.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

Well taking a look at the situation this afternoon I really think there is a good possiblity we'll be seeing our next invest tomorrow out of this area. There is still a very broad area of good convection firing. Upper level divergence is getting better and the is a lot of lower level convergence going on.

200mb Wind Analysis
:darrow:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg
You can see the divergent upper level winds very clearly on that graphic.

850mb Wind Analysis
:darrow:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg
You can see the low level convergence associated with this broad area.

Here are the visual graphics for what i'm talking about.

I see no reason why this shouldn't be our first cape verde storm this year. I have been wrong before though so ...

#116 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:51 pm

There might be another area of interest behind the one mentioned.

Things might start getting very intersting out there very soon.

willjnewton · #117 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:51 pm

is the wave off of africa that the national hurricane center is talking about getting better organized???

#118 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:53 pm

willjnewton wrote:is the wave off of africa that the national hurricane center is talking about getting better organized???

It's the one that is sw of the cape verde islands. If you click on the the link below you'll see where it is every clearly.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

#119 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 3:48 pm

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

#120 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 3:51 pm

By looking at that loop it's clearly evident the circulation albeit a broad one.

The Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands

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