Mmmm....so south of AL

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Thunder44
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#81 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:06 pm

From this afternoon TWD:

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVING NWWD. A SURFACE
TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW RUNS FROM 30N-85W TO 26N-90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
85W-91W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CORNER OF
THE GULF. A DIFFUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REACHES NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LIGHT SELY SURFACE WIND DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF. THE ATLC
RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
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#82 Postby chrisnnavarre » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:55 pm

Sure looks like it's starting to band doesn't it. 8-)
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#83 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:57 pm

Alot of shear going on looking at satellite. Mainly an upper Low.
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#84 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:57 pm

I remember the storms that formed Danny very well. I believe we were under tornado warnings when the squall line moved in from the Northeast followed by about 3" of rain. The next day the clouds starting rotating in the gulf very much like what we're seeing today. We need to watch this area closely.
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#85 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:57 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:Sure looks like it's starting to band doesn't it. 8-)




yep, trying to get to the surface? Sure looks like it to me. Mid levels right now. Could get very interesting tonight......
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#86 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:02 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Alot of shear going on looking at satellite. Mainly an upper Low.



Why would a ULL show such organization (to me) in the mid levels if it wasn't trying to get to the surface?
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#87 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:03 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Alot of shear going on looking at satellite. Mainly an upper Low.


It doesn't look like shear is bad enough though for this to not have a shot: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Also, it looks like Shear is lessening ahead of the system: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
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#88 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:05 pm

We're watching it, once in a blue moon these will develop.
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#89 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:09 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:We're watching it, once in a blue moon these will develop.



Thanks KF just wondering. I have been watching the vis but cannot make out the lower clouds moving into the suspect mid level swirl. Trying to tell if a LLC is trying to get going......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
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#90 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:12 pm

Can't be much to it if we're not even getting an invest. out of it can it?
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#91 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:15 pm

It would have to hurry if its going to happen because all the data has the system moving in Monday.
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#92 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:18 pm

Moving in where KFDM?
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#93 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:19 pm

SE Tx Coast. That's where all the models have the upper low moving in.
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#94 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:21 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Alot of shear going on looking at satellite. Mainly an upper Low.


It doesn't look like shear is bad enough though for this to not have a shot: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Also, it looks like Shear is lessening ahead of the system: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF


Those shear maps are from 11am and it shows about 20kts shear over the MLC which is unfavorable. I'm waiting for the 2pm analysis map to come out. It should be soon.
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Bailey1777
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#95 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:24 pm

If there is a center to this where would you fix it at?
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rnbaida

#96 Postby rnbaida » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:24 pm

it looks like i see it right off the coast of cuba.
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#97 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:26 pm

rnbaida wrote:it looks like i see it right off the coast of cuba.
no the center of the MLC is just south of the AL/MS line.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... t&type=vis
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#98 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:29 pm

I wonder why no Invest......If it continues to look this impressive later this evening to tonight, I bet we get one.....

I say impressive given I watched Chris for about a week get ripped to shreds.
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Bailey1777
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#99 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:31 pm

Question when you see rotation how can you tell what level it is at low, middle, upper?
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#100 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:37 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Question when you see rotation how can you tell what level it is at low, middle, upper?


My unskilled method is to look at the water vapor imagery. If it's more pronounced there than in the Visible, It's upper level.

Pros please correct me.
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