WPAC: Tropical Storm Bopha (0609)

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 11:50 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 133E NW SLOWLY.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 134.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA,
OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE, INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. A 050050Z TRMM
PASS REVEALS A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. GIVEN A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

05/1433 UTC 20.8N 131.8E T2.5/2.5 91W -- West Pacific Ocean

If two at the same time were not enough, may three will be.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 11:52 am

I dont know a lot about that basin but I ask,is this time of the year the peak of the WPAC season?

#3 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:03 pm

I'll just copy this across from the thread I started on this earlier. :wink:

(Don't worry about it)

On average August is the most active month Luis. http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/climatology.html

WWJP25 RJTD 050600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 25.6N 146.3E EAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.0N 141.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 11.6N 147.6E SEA EAST OF MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 15.0N 146.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 142E
46N 150E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N 170E 36N 150E 39N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 46N 159E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 44N 178E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 133E NW 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 37N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 159E TO 46N 160E 45N 161E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 161E TO 41N 157E 38N 150E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 161E TO 44N 164E 42N 167E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:34 pm

Sorry, I didn't noticed! 8-)

Getting really active, it's like the Bermuda Triangle between the three systems, but WPAC style!!!

#5 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 4:13 pm

Down 2hPa to 1004hPa in the latest MetArea bulletin.

#6 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:15 am

This is now TS Bopha (0609).

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0609 BOPHA (0609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 22.2N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 22.6N 129.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 080600UTC 22.6N 128.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 090600UTC 22.6N 127.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:27 am

The JMA is kicking the crap out of the JTWC on most of these systems. The JTWC is losing it. This is no depression as they put it.

WindRunner · #8 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:27 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The JMA is kicking the crap out of the JTWC on most of these systems. The JTWC is losing it. This is no depression as they put it.

And the funny thing is that the vast majority of the time it's the other way around . . .

#9 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:41 am

WindRunner wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The JMA is kicking the crap out of the JTWC on most of these systems. The JTWC is losing it. This is no depression as they put it.

And the funny thing is that the vast majority of the time it's the other way around . . .

the JTWC was doing it so good i thought it was the national center boy was i wrong!!

#10 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 4:58 pm

45kts.

WTPQ22 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0609 BOPHA (0609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 22.7N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 23.1N 126.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 081800UTC 23.2N 123.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 091800UTC 22.6N 119.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =

#11 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 4:59 pm

when loging theses systems should i use averages to the local basin or only the 1 minate average?

#12 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:12 pm

The official advisories are all ten minute averages (As is the World Meteorological Organisation standard) so you should really stick with that. If you must convert the BoM give a conversion factor of dividing a ten minute average by 0.871 to get a one minute comparison but I'd note down the ten minute value as the main figure.

#13 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:18 pm

ok so why does the JTWC, weather channel, NRL, and local meterologist use the 1 minute?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #14 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:21 pm

That system-metric system uses 10s which is less accurate then uses .1 or 2 or 5s like the United states systems-En system. So its less defined that is why I don't trust it really.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #15 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:22 pm

The one minute is used on any thing American because its a more defined system overall.

#16 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:30 pm

fact789 wrote:ok so why does the JTWC, weather channel, NRL, and local meterologist use the 1 minute?

They are USA based and they use a different average to most other people.

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:That system-metric system uses 10s which is less accurate then uses .1 or 2 or 5s like the United states systems-En system. So its less defined that is why I don't trust it really.

I'm a little confused. This has nothing to do with whether metric or imperial measurements are used by the country who is giving the wind estimate.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #17 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:53 pm

For links concerning Bopha (0609), check out the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page at...

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm

#18 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 6:42 pm

when i put it in my logbook do i put it by the 10-min or 1-min average?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #19 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:34 pm

fact789 wrote:when i put it in my logbook do i put it by the 10-min or 1-min average?

That's up to you.

JTWC uses 1-minute, but the official JMA advisories are in 10-minute averages.

#20 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:44 pm

which is more accurate?

WPAC: Tropical Storm Bopha (0609)

WPAC: Tropical Storm Bopha (0609)

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