A Long 11:30 AM Tropical Weather Outlook

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 051517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ARE LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED AND THE SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The Tropics are getting active!!!

[StormScanWx]

I am very surprised they didn't mention the system near the Azores!

[cycloneye]

I am very surprised they didn't mention the system near the Azores!

Me too.

[Brent]

Come on Debby!

[senorpepr]

Personally, the TWO should have only mentioned the remnants of Chris. The other two really aren't TWO-worthy since they don't pose a risk for over 36 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Personally, the TWO should have only mentioned the remnants of Chris. The other two really aren't TWO-worthy since they don't pose a risk for over 36 hours.

Senorpepr, do we have the possibility to see Debby in the next from days one of the three disturbances (GOM, WAVE, AZORES LOW) we are following, or are the conditions to hostile to allow development?

[ConvergenceZone]

Personally, the TWO should have only mentioned the remnants of Chris. The other two really aren't TWO-worthy since they don't pose a risk for over 36 hours.

Senorpepr, do we have the possibility to see Debby in the next from days one of the three disturbances (GOM, WAVE, AZORES LOW) we are following, or are the conditions to hostile to allow development?

Yea, that is a good question. I wonder about that too. Usually when the TWO says that "slow development is possible" it means that at least the conditions are adequate enough to support some development even if it is slow. I don't think the TWO would mention it otherwise. I remember when Chris formed, it said the same thing, and 4 of 5 advisories later, it changed the wording to "a depresson could form in the next couple of days"

[senorpepr]

Yeah, IMO, they mentioned Chris way too early. 36 hours (a day and a half) is the timeframe.

Do I see Debby or 04L within that time period? No. Maybe 3-5 days out, but not <1.5 days.

Then again, I'm just one of those "pro mets that tend to be over-conservative."

[Aquawind]

Personally, the TWO should have only mentioned the remnants of Chris. The other two really aren't TWO-worthy since they don't pose a risk for over 36 hours.

I agree. That is disussion material.. Certainly the Central ATL system as it is not threat to anyone for some time..

[CrazyC83]

I think that Cape Verde wave will become Debby, and a major hurricane at that.

[Frank2]

The system in the Azores is mentioned in the High Seas Forecast - the other area (Cape Verde) is mentioned, because it's in the climatologically favored area for early August (and, the trough of low pressure has been there for more than 24 hours) - it doesn't necessarily mean that something will form, however.

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

Actually, it's better if it forms sooner than later as it has more of a chance to recurve. If it doesn't form within the next 3 days or so, the chance of it recurving diminishes. At least this is how it's been in the past with these systems. You want them to form as far out as possible, as it means a greater chance of recurvature.

[Frank2]

The GFS does show it to recurve at or before 50W, due to the same front that cooled off the northeast a couple of days ago...

[dwg71]

Much ado about nothing for the next 2 - 3 days.

[HURAKAN]

What is amazing about the tropics is that sometimes things can happen in a matter of hours. A day before Chris formed no one was expecting developement to occur so soon, much less a 65 mph storm!!! It's still a long season ahead of us!!