Low pressure looking like becoming cut off south of Azores!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/neatl/loop-avn.html


The sst's under the system are a little to cool...But we will have to see what happens. Remember Vince,Zeta all had below what it would normally take for tropical cyclone development. What needs to happen is that it needs to cut off from the jet stream/other systems. Then it needs to keep forming convection over the center to form a warm core. Then this wll start slowly developing into a tropical cyclone. We will see. I hope this forms, even so very little chance is there.

After last year just thought I would post this...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[Normandy]

They wont name that....no reason to (unless it starts looking REALLY good).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look what the gfs doe's!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/94.html

[WindRunner]

Look what the gfs doe's!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/94.html

I was just about to go look at that. So it would be warm-core per the GFS, but not a very strong system. I'll agree with Normandy here . . . because there really would be no point to naming it until it's half a threat to somewhere.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There was no point in naming most of the systems that did form out there last year if that is the point. The point is if it becomes a cyclone it needs to be named.

[WindRunner]

There was no point in naming most of the systems that did form out there last year if that is the point. The point is if it becomes a cyclone it needs to be named.

Well, yeah, you have a point . . . but at that point last year, they were also the only thing going on. If the eastern Atlantic is about to flare up, then any further developments with this system might go unnoticed/un-cared-about. Howver, the NHC will do what they feel is right when it comes to classifying the progress of this storm, whether they do it during the season or afterwards.

[HURAKAN]

Temps: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif

The environment around the system is pretty humid and the low pressure is very close to the 26ºC lines (just to its south) according to the NHC. If it becomes cut off the circulation of the high would favor a southward track, so I think it's good to keep an eye on it. It's the closes thing we can find to Debby so far in the open Atlantic!!!

Thanks Matt for pointing this out.

[TheEuropean]

Here is a satellite image (00 UTC):

[HURAKAN]

Look what the gfs doe's!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/94.html

I was just about to go look at that. So it would be warm-core per the GFS, but not a very strong system. I'll agree with Normandy here . . . because there really would be no point to naming it until it's half a threat to somewhere.

You must agree with me that a tropical cyclone is a threat to marine interests. So naming a system in the middle of the Atlantic that is not a threat to anyone in land is still valid because there are ships that must be aware of the danger.

[HURAKAN]

TheEuropean, Very interesting image, thanks. I think it's worth mentioning in the TWO @ 11:30 AM. Let see if the NHC shares my opinion!!!

[TheEuropean]

and of 06 UTC:



I think we should watch this one, it has a chance to develop into a at least subtropical system.

[cycloneye]

TheEuropean, Very interesting image, thanks. I think it's worth mentioning in the TWO @ 11:30 AM. Let see if the NHC shares my opinion!!!

More than that,this should be an invest soon.

[HURAKAN]

Convection is firing near its center and covers its soueastern side. That's at least an indication that the system is trying to become subtropical or tropical.

[HURAKAN]

TheEuropean, Very interesting image, thanks. I think it's worth mentioning in the TWO @ 11:30 AM. Let see if the NHC shares my opinion!!!

More than that,this should be an invest soon.

Luis, que te parece, ayer Debby nos parecía tan lejos y ahora nos parece tan cerca.

Luis, what do you think, yesterday Debby was so far in ours minds, and now it's so close.

[cycloneye]

TheEuropean, Very interesting image, thanks. I think it's worth mentioning in the TWO @ 11:30 AM. Let see if the NHC shares my opinion!!!

More than that,this should be an invest soon.

Luis, que te parece, ayer Debby nos parecía tan lejos y ahora nos parece tan cerca.

Luis, what do you think, yesterday Debby was so far in ours minds, and now it's so close.

Esto senala que los tropicos es una region cambiante de dia a dia,que hay que estar pendientes todos los dias ya que algunas sorpresas aparecen.

This shows that the tropics are an area that changes day to day and that is why we have to watch day by day as surprises come many times.

[P.K.]

Here is what the Met Area bulletins say, I've taken the non relevant bits out.


Weather bulletin for METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
Toulouse, Saturday 5 August 2006 at 09 UTC.

- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant -
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger
than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice
the significant height.

Part 1 : WARNING : 364

Part 2 : General synopsis, Saturday 5 at 00 UTC

Relative low area 1012 over south of Spain, slow-moving.
Thundery low 36N39W, slow-moving.
High 1026 near 46N17W, slow-moving.


Low 1010 in east of SIERRA LEONE, slowly moving westwards and
deepening, expected 1008
in south of Cape Verde Islands at 210 NM at 05/12 UTC.
ITCZ along 14N17W 11N44W.


Part 3 : Area forecasts to Sunday 6 at 12 UTC

ACORES, IRVING :
In west, Southerly 4 to 6, occasionally 7 in daytime. In east,
Northeasterly 3 or 4. Slight or moderate, locally rough in far
west. Thunderstorms in west. Severe gusts.

Part 4 : outlook for next ## hours :

Threat of Northeast gale in FINISTERRE.
Threat of Easterly near gale or gale in CADIZ, GIBRALTAR STRAIT.
Elsewhere, no significative change.

-----------------------------------------

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC/TPC MIAMI FL
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/OFB 1030 UTC AUG 05 2006
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE
NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC AUG 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC AUG 07.

WARNINGS.


.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.


.LOW 35N 38W 1014 MB NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL DRIFT N AFTER 24
HOURS. WINDS TO 25 KT SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N 40W 1012 MB. FORECAST WINDS TO 25 KT
SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 120 NM SE QUADRANTS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 38N 40W 1016 MB. FORECAST WINDS TO 25 KT
SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 180 NM E QUADRANT.

SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE.


.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.

[WindRunner]

Look what the gfs doe's!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/94.html

I was just about to go look at that. So it would be warm-core per the GFS, but not a very strong system. I'll agree with Normandy here . . . because there really would be no point to naming it until it's half a threat to somewhere.

You must agree with me that a tropical cyclone is a threat to marine interests. So naming a system in the middle of the Atlantic that is not a threat to anyone in land is still valid because there are ships that must be aware of the danger.

Oh, yes, most definately. However, the NHC tends to worry less about the naming of systems out there as ships often have to deal with cold-core lows that are just as strong, if not stronger than anything that could happen tropically out there.


And P.K., what is a "Thundery Low"? One with lightning? I mean, how could they tell that?

[P.K.]

Sferics have picked up lightning in this low yes.

[Loring]

is this moving toward the southeast or is it just me?

and if so, it looks like itll take on a bit of shear, yea?