Interesting MM5 Run

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7210
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Interesting MM5 Run

#1 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:21 pm

Im only the messenger, I think AFM was alluding to this possibility earlier..



Image
0 likes   
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#2 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:23 pm

hmm... are the other models out too?
0 likes   
Top
ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

#3 Postby ericinmia » Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:23 pm

Hmm.. I wouldn't bet the house on it, but i give it some credit.

The higher res 18km mm5 nailed the track durring that stripping episode the other night....

Image
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: Interesting MM5 Run

#4 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:24 pm

jlauderdal wrote:Im only the messenger, I think AFM was alluding to this possibility earlier..


Nope...nothing like that. I was thinking that if convection fires on the NW quad we could get a LLC move up there...

But not that...that is wack...yo.
0 likes   
Top
Bailey1777
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 962
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:23 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#5 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:28 pm

Let me make sure I understand this. That model is saying it will head NW straight at the tip of Florida and then move SE?
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7210
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: Interesting MM5 Run

#6 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:29 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Im only the messenger, I think AFM was alluding to this possibility earlier..


Nope...nothing like that. I was thinking that if convection fires on the NW quad we could get a LLC move up there...

But not that...that is wack...yo.


gotcha but isnt that basically the mm5's idea here if the system even survices?
0 likes   
Top
Bailey1777
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 962
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:23 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#7 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:31 pm

AFM on another thread I saw 4 people saying the LLC is completely gone are they correct?
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: Interesting MM5 Run

#8 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:32 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Im only the messenger, I think AFM was alluding to this possibility earlier..


Nope...nothing like that. I was thinking that if convection fires on the NW quad we could get a LLC move up there...

But not that...that is wack...yo.


gotcha but isnt that basically the mm5's idea here if the system even survices?


Not sure what it is saying...looks like a movement to me.
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#9 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:33 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:AFM on another thread I saw 4 people saying the LLC is completely gone are they correct?


Given that it is dark...with no vis imagery...and there is no recon...there is no way to tell for sure. I do think there is a chance of it though.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], ouragans and 33 guests