fact789's chris forecasts: 9:30pm 8/4

[JonathanBelles]

through the next 12-24 hours i think it may loose 5 miles per hour at most. i think this because on the IR2 shows clouds to the ne heading for chris will impact it at that time. i also think it will not gain strenght for at least 24 hours unless convection surrounds the center and dry air leaves the system. after that period of time i think it will regain strength possibly to hurricane strength as it enters the gulf. I think the system will track north of the NHC forecast. if the ULL does not start moving florida it will move into the straits directly into the GOM, but if the ULL begins moving chris will move north possibly following the ULL, but to the south in the area of West Palm Beach. i put the area of possiblity from the extreme north coast of cuba to the titusville area. then i expect it to move into the midcoastal region of texas and move towards San Antonio and Austin, tx and die off.

24hrs: in the south east bahamas at 35-45 mph
48hrs: near the south island of andros island in the bahamas at 40-50 mph
72hrs: near key west at 50-60 mph
96hrs-120 hrs: in the central gulf at 60-80 mph


The post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Swimdude]

Sounds possible to me, minus the mid-Texas coast part. That ridge is looking mighty... mighty. Hehe.

[JonathanBelles]

wow whoever changed the end of my post thank you!!!

[cycloneye]

wow whoever changed the end of my post thank you!!!

I put storm2k's disclaimer.

[JonathanBelles]

comments are welcome

[bamaboy]

Not a bad forecast there fact. Aren't you a meterology student?

[fci]

Fact789:
I TOTALLY respect you putting a forecast out there. It takes courage especially to then solict comments.

I'm not in agreement with you on this system picking up strength and also am confused that you mention it would be in the area south of WPB but your 72 hour foreacst has it near Key West. I see it degenerating into an open wave and never making it to the GOM as a closed circulation with potential to develop. I base it on conditions having teared it apart before the real tough stuff came into play. Plus, climatologically; it is contrary to the historical movement of storms this time of year. GOM'ers have come up through the Carib; not across from the Atlantic. Of couse, climatology is NO guarantee.

Hey I don't have the guts to put a forecast out there nor the real experience beyond climatology and "gut feelings".

Sure is easy to criticize someone else's forecast and thoguh I differ a little in my opinion, I am far from criticizing yours.

Nice job and, in my opinion, continue to present your thoughts. That is what the Tropical Discussion is to me; a forum to do just that particularly when you state WHY you think what you do; and you did!

fci

[JonathanBelles]

bamaboy: a to-be meterology student

fci: thanx for the critisism and to clear up the confusion, i said it might move north through WPB if the ULL stay stationary and moves when chris is near, but right now i think it will be gone by then or stuck in place when chris is near. in that case i put chris near WPB in 72hrs.

more comments are welcome and critisism is also welcome.

maybe another forecast at 12:30pm or 9:30pm tomorrow

[LaBreeze]

If Texas is involved, I would venture to say extreme southern Texas - Brownsville, if that far north. Chris may have a hankering for some Mexican food instead.

[Wx_Warrior]

chulupas not tx bar-b-que!!!!

[JonathanBelles]

i will be doing an update at 9:00-9:30 and it is confirmed. i will hopefully have a map to go with this one!

[JonathanBelles]

problem im trying to uploead an image from mircosoftword that i made and it wont because "DOC files are not an allowed image type."
help?

[JonathanBelles]

well whether or not the image comes up here is my forecast:


through the next 24 hours i am not calling for a strength changes (if any it will be down 5-10 mph.) It will travel towards cuba and make landfall in the northern barrier islands of cuba or too the north by at the most 30 miles in the late night hours of saturday or the early morning hours of sunday. It will emerge off the coast by the 5 am advisory sunday morning. If it is put together it may go under a rapid intensification process although chances are low. I expect a 20-30 mph increase until landfall on the Mexico/texas border near noon wednesday. soon after landfall the unrelentless chris will disapate for a final time.

24hrs: near north cuba at 35-40 mph
48hrs: around 75 miles due south of the dry tortugas in the south keys:35-50 mph depending on how much land it goes over
72hrs-96hrs: central gulf of mexico at 45-60 mph
120 hrs: inland near the MX/TX border at 35-50 mph



sorry for the delay: i had technical dificutly


The post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

comments and critism welcome

[cycloneye]

Fact,as you requested me by PM,I edited the title.

[JonathanBelles]

[wx247]

I would doubt that this will survive the night. A lot of the forecast (including your own) will depend on what recon finds overnight. We shall see!

[JonathanBelles]

can anyone else see the image i posted?, i cant

[wx247]

can anyone else see the image i posted?, i cant

I sure can.

[JonathanBelles]

hmm.. is it too big or too small? again i cant see it

[Brent]

hmm.. is it too big or too small? again i cant see it

It's a small box that allows you to click it and make it full sized.