Tropical Storm Chris

[Jevo]

pro mets do you think Chris could be doing a eye wall replacement under the convection?

ok first of all if your avatar is you then you get a pass for this post cause youre a hawt chick ..... If not im sending people over to smack you with a big wet noodle

[ericinmia]

Mabye the center is reforming....????

[Grease Monkey]

lol

[The_OD_42]

ive been gone for 10 minutes and it got cut in half, what happened?

Okay, Im calling my self crazy right now. Five minutes or so ago, the LLC was looking like it had split in half. Now, running through the loops, that is nowehere to be seen....he looks to be doing alright.

[JonathanBelles]

how often do the new frames come in?

[wxmann_91]

OK guys, Chris is not Rita. This is early August, not late September.

I'm still thinking NE Mexico.

[jhamps10]

false alarm, nothing to see here, move on.

[jasons2k]

I read AFM's excellent explanation of COL (I already understood the dynamics) but I still don't know what the acronym stands for. I was an English major so little things like that help me remember. Anyway I'll keep searching but if anyone chimes in with the answer I'd be a happy camper.

[wxmann_91]

Eyewall replacement cycles cannot happen if there is no eyewall.

well it has had an eye all day just no convection over it.

There's a difference between an eye and an LLC.

[wxmann_91]

I read AFM's excellent explanation of COL (I already understood the dynamics) but I still don't know what the acronym stands for. I was an English major so little things like that help me remember. Anyway I'll keep searching but if anyone chimes in with the answer I'd be a happy camper.

Where is AFM's explanation.

This is the AMS glossary's definition, maybe it isn't an acronym:

col—(Also called saddle point, neutral point.) In meteorology, the point of intersection of a trough and a ridge in the pressure pattern of a weather map.
It is the point of relatively lowest pressure between two highs and the point of relatively highest pressure between two lows.

[perk]

Katdaddy you've been following storms for a while now, and i can't believe that you can't entertain the fact that the ridge could in a different place from where the models are forecasting days away. I don't think there's many people on this board that thinks Chris will be a Rita, but the placement of the ridge will determine where this storm may end up.

[Grease Monkey]

ive been gone for 10 minutes and it got cut in half, what happened?

Okay, Im calling my self crazy right now. Five minutes or so ago, the LLC was looking like it had split in half. Now, running through the loops, that is nowehere to be seen....he looks to be doing alright.

Well if the LLC is under the convection now, he definitely must be getting his act together.

[saints63213]

Eyewall replacement cycles cannot happen if there is no eyewall.

well it has had an eye all day just no convection over it.

There's a difference between an eye and an LLC.

true I should have explained better. do you think the LLC is relocating under the convection.

[Recurve]

Eyewall replacement cycles cannot happen if there is no eyewall.

well it has had an eye all day just no convection over it.

An eye can form at the center of the tropical cyclone, but the center of every cyclone isn't an eye. You have to have a full-blown hurricane to have an eye, which is a clearing in completely wrapped convection. Chris has no eyewall and no eye, as wxman says.

[ALhurricane]

Eyewall replacement cycles cannot happen if there is no eyewall.

well it has had an eye all day just no convection over it.

It has never had an eye. What you are simply seeing is the center of circulation.

[The_OD_42]

Well if the LLC is under the convection now, he definitely must be getting his act together.

Okay, my internet just didnt want to load the last few frames. the 3:15 UTC shows the LLC being lifted to the north and opening in the north end.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[tgenius]

Well if the LLC is under the convection now, he definitely must be getting his act together.

Okay, my internet just didnt want to load the last few frames. the 3:15 UTC shows the LLC being lifted to the north and opening in the north end.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

thats what I thought, that the LLC was being sliced in half from that last image

[miamicanes177]

how often do the new frames come in?

the SSD site updates every 30 minutes.

[Recurve]

do you think the LLC is relocating under the convection(?)

Not on the IR loop it doesn't look like. The convection is just developing closer to the center, not getting blown away and the center isn't racing away from the convection, IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like the storm may be being killed right now. Won't be surprised if Chris is not here in the morning.