Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

All models have the High aloft next week driving Chris into South Texas...

Not saying your wrong, but could you explain to me how the models will be perfect in forecasting the high 5-6 days down the road when they seem to never be accurate in that time range for a tropical cyclone, snowstorm, arctic high, front location, etc? Just wondering why this time is different and why everyone in central and SE TX should simply stop following Chris and pretend there is no chance they could be affected?

Wouldn't the slightest change in the strength and position of the high change things?

Why in the world do you continually find reasons why Chris is going to impact the Upper Texas coast...

It is one thing if you were objective, but quite frankly AFM hit the nail on the head!!

I don't want this to hit the upper TX coast, but I seriously think calling for a hit on the S. Texas coast specifically is a bit premature. Sure the ridge is strong, but based on it's exact strength and position things can change a lot! Why would the NHC have the cone of error range from LA to MX if there was not a chance the storm could go there? All I want to stress is that it is too early to make a call like that, and people in other areas shouldn't start feeling safe...yet.

[secretforecaster]

Thanks!

[rnbaida]

Thank you...

[mobilebay]

I actually enjoy doing it. I just don't want to get into a posting war with someone if they would rather do it.

[Jim Cantore]

The CLP5 needs a reality check

and we're on page 25

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Wobble Alert, Chris just jumped NW well ahead of his next forecast point.

[Scorpion]

Continue the discussion here.

Thread 1

Thread 2

Thread 3

Thread 4

Thread 5

[TexasSam]

Should this have not been here:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87687&start=200

[rnbaida]

I dont think it will make it into the gulf. if it goes over cuba the mountains will tear it into shreads.

[Category6]

The ULL off Florida's coast is moving in a NNW motion. Wouldn't this take Chris on more of a WNW or NW path?

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Wobble Alert, chis jumped NW well ahead of his next forecast point.

[stormtruth]

Will Chris make it all the way to Mexico or Texas? And if so how many times will he change clothes along the way?

[JonathanBelles]

wow it speeding up maybe it wants to get away from the shear in a few hours

[tgenius]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Wobble Alert, chis jumped NW well ahead of his next forecast point.

This is what I was saying in the other thread, it wobbled NW a lil bit.. if it does this for a bit longer, the models will have to shift...

[jasons2k]

From the last thread:

In EWGs defense he makes a good point in his last post. As I posted in the Advisory thread let's not forget the cone is a cone for a reason. This is emphasized time and time again by the NHC.

I'm calling it a night gang. I don't want to start giving the impression I think Chris is on his way here. Far from my thoughts ATTM but OTOH a lot can change in a day, much less another 5 or 6.

[Jim Cantore]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Wobble Alert, chis jumped NW well ahead of his next forecast point.

I saw a WSW wobble earlier, he's just being eratic

give him a breathalizer

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Wobble Alert, chis jumped NW well ahead of his next forecast point.

and this is exactly why I think the end path of Chris is highly changeable.

[ericinmia]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Wobble Alert, chis jumped NW well ahead of his next forecast point.

Its not a wobble if we can convince him to do it twice... then its a trend... JK

Storms sadly don't move in lines, but stairstep. Our own tracking resolution usually prohibts this viewing, but when larger steps are taken it becomes noticeable. I've been trying to look into concrete reasons why he has been on the northern end of the forecast envelope almost his entire existance.
-Eric

[jhamps10]

yeah if he keeps moving WNW or more NW, he may even miss cuba all together

[cheezyWXguy]

I think hes gonna miss Cuba