Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on the cone of error Chris could go anywhere from SW Louisiana to Central MX..anyone in these areas need to watch closely as the track will likely jump around quite a few times over the next few days:


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 20W_sm.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

All models have the High aloft next week driving Chris into South Texas...

[tgenius]

Based on the cone of error Chris could go anywhere from SW Louisiana to Central MX.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 20W_sm.gif

Think they would put South FL under Trop Storm warning if it takes the NHC path?

[Furious George]

Here's a semi-dumb question... if that path holds true, due to the proximity to South FL, would they issue a trop storm watch, and if so, when?

If it followed the middle line in the 3 day forecast, I think the keys might see a TS watch, but that's a big if.

Also, the long term forecast is showing some serious ridging, trying to push the storm more west.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large

[Extremeweatherguy]

All models have the High aloft next week driving Chris into South Texas...

Not saying your wrong, but could you explain to me how the models will be perfect in forecasting the high 5-6 days down the road when they seem to never be accurate in that time range for a tropical cyclone, snowstorm, arctic high, front location, etc? Just wondering why this time is different and why everyone in central and SE TX should simply stop following Chris and pretend there is no chance they could be affected?

Wouldn't the slightest change in the strength and position of the high change things?

[tgenius]

Here's a semi-dumb question... if that path holds true, due to the proximity to South FL, would they issue a trop storm watch, and if so, when?

If it followed the middle line in the 3 day forecast, I think the keys might see a TS watch, but that's a big if.

Also, the long term forecast is showing some serious ridging, trying to push the storm more west.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large

Only reason I ask is that NHC eers to the side of conservative, so I would think the Watch area would be a lil larger

[miamicanes177]

All models have the High aloft next week driving Chris into South Texas...

great, at least we know 1 state that it will not hit

[jasons2k]

All models have the High aloft next week driving Chris into South Texas...

I agree, hence the westward bend at the end of the forecast. ATTM that is the most likely scenario and I would be surprised if Chris hit north of Corpus.

However, the cone is a cone for a reason. Let's not forget what Mayfield and the NHC constantly preach - do not focus on the line and anyone in the cone is at risk. As you know, a lot can change between now and then.

[Stratosphere747]

All models have the High aloft next week driving Chris into South Texas...

Not saying your wrong, but could you explain to me how the models will be perfect in forecasting the high 5-6 days down the road when they seem to never be accurate in that time range for a tropical cyclone, snowstorm, arctic high, front location, etc? Just wondering why this time is different and why everyone in central and SE TX should simply stop following Chris and pretend there is no chance they could be affected?

Wouldn't the slightest change in the strength and position of the high change things?

Why in the world do you continually find reasons why Chris is going to impact the Upper Texas coast...

It is one thing if you were objective, but quite frankly AFM hit the nail on the head!!

[Brent]

This is not gonna hit the Upper Texas Coast, that ridge is not going anywhere.

[Scorpion]

No offense EWG but I think you really want this to hit you.

[KatDaddy]

Chris aint Rita so get over it......and thank God. Could he re-develop?Possibly but the ridge building will be strong. That is the good news for he US and bad for Mexico.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

All models have the High aloft next week driving Chris into South Texas...

Not saying your wrong, but could you explain to me how the models will be perfect in forecasting the high 5-6 days down the road when they seem to never be accurate in that time range for a tropical cyclone, snowstorm, arctic high, front location, etc? Just wondering why this time is different and why everyone in central and SE TX should simply stop following Chris and pretend there is no chance they could be affected?

Wouldn't the slightest change in the strength and position of the high change things?

Sure. You have to look at the time of year. Early August. The ridge is going to be stronger this time of year than if it were September.

[jasons2k]

No offense EWG but I think you really want this to hit you.

That's a bit like the pot calling the kettle black isn't it??

I'm just messin' w/you BTW

[miamicanes177]

I'm certainly not willing to say 7 days in advance than north texas has an all clear. As poor as the models are handling this storm, I would say LA, TX, and Mexico should be on high alert.

[HouTXmetro]

This is not gonna hit the Upper Texas Coast, that ridge is not going anywhere.

We will be lucky to get an outerband of rain. At the least it might usher in some moisture should it turn NNW once overland. And Ya'll leave EWG alone.

[Normandy]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png


*edited by staff to make the image a link

*please do not post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each post

Looking today, the center is on the northern end (a bit north of the cluster) of this guidance.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Oh i agree, but they have done a great job with the overall upper pattern. We have a upper low moving in this weekend to give us SCT showers. The high will follow the low.

[mobilebay]

I will be here all night and will post recon obs here like I did last night if no one objects.Should get rolling around 1AM EDT.

[Furious George]

No offense EWG but I think you really want this to hit you.

That's a bit like the pot calling the kettle black isn't it??

I'm just messin' w/you BTW

That's why I respect the Pro's so much. They have to forecast without bias - something 99% of us amatuers and hurricane fans cannot do. We often dismiss data that suggests a storm won't come in our direction. However, that doesnt' necessarily mean we want the storm.

And now that I think about it, not all pro's can get rid of their biases. Take Frank B, a local Houston met who just about said 'this is a Houston storm'. Kind of funny now.