I think Chris will hit Miami or Havana as a Cat 3

[Canelaw99]

And just one more point... does one really need FIVE DAYS to get ready for a hurricane?

Actually, yes, unfortunately, many people DO need 5 days to prepare. I, for one, have a friend dealing with a leaky patio roof right now and he's trying to figure out what he will have to do in the next day or two to prepare for the deluge that will occur in his living room, kitchen, dining room, bedroom, and his daughter's bathroom should Chris make an appearance. Even 5 days wouldn't solve his issue, but it sure would help. No, unfortunately, not everyone preps on June 1st as we all probably should, so yes, we all do need 5 days to be on the safe side.

[HurricaneQueen]

I'd like to add to Canelaw's post. It takes a full five days (and usually you don't have that much time as within 5 days the storm is upon you.). If you have to work 8-10 hours a day, prepare the workplace for the storm, prepare your home, fill gas tanks and cans, get cash, sanitize the bathtubs and other containers, pack the freezer with ice, fully charge your electronics, get your pets ready for evacuation, pack at least two cars, watch the board and TV, get a little sleep, notify family and friends out of town about your plans and evacuate before the outer bands arrive, you need all the time you get. That doesn't account for those people who haven't stocked up in advance, checked all their batteries, made videos or pictures of their homes and contents, etc. etc.

Those with no responsibilities other than following someone else's instructions can probably get ready much more quickly. 'Nuff said.

Lynn

[FloridaDiver]

And just one more point... does one really need FIVE DAYS to get ready for a hurricane?

Actually, yes, unfortunately, many people DO need 5 days to prepare. I, for one, have a friend dealing with a leaky patio roof right now and he's trying to figure out what he will have to do in the next day or two to prepare for the deluge that will occur in his living room, kitchen, dining room, bedroom, and his daughter's bathroom should Chris make an appearance. Even 5 days wouldn't solve his issue, but it sure would help. No, unfortunately, not everyone preps on June 1st as we all probably should, so yes, we all do need 5 days to be on the safe side.

Yes, it sure would be nice to have 5 full days to prepare, but the reality is that at 5 days out the margin of error is just too high. Now remember when I say “prepare” I’m talking about the stuff one does during a watch or warning, normal seasonal preparing should have been done before any watch or warnings. Just ask the locals down in Monroe County (Florida Key’s) how they feel about being asked to evacuating several days out when the NHC still has not issued any watches or warnings. Perhaps in time forecasting accuracy will improve as technology advances....

[Canelaw99]

True, diver....my step-brother lives in Islamorada, and it takes basically a cat. 5 barreling straight for the middle/upper Keys for him to evac, and I understand that. We were evacuated from the H'stead area a couple times in '04, and it's a royal pain in the butt to do it for no reason. However, with that being said, ask the people in N.O. whether they would've liked to have had the 5 days evac. time pre-Katrina, and I'm sure they would say yes. When it comes to storms, it seems that it's better to err on the side of caution, IMO. I'm glad, though, that I'm not a government official having to make the call as to whether to evac a place or not/when to evac/etc. because they get all the flack when the storm doesn't behave properly. If people (average citizens) would look at it as, "ok, we didn't have to evac this time, but it was the smart call on the govt.'s part" then I think we'd all be better off.

Anyway, looks as though S. FL dodged one this time so it's not a big deal. Hopefully some people got a little prepping done that they hadn't yet so they'll be more ready for the next scare/storm

[fci]

I've found that the safest place to be in a hurricane is where the NHC says it'll hit 4 or 5 days out.

I'd feel much more comfortable if I was in Miami and the NHC said that the storm would be hitting head on in Miami 4 or 5 days out.

I'm coming in at the end on this one but your comments, to me; are solely incendiary.

You are not, as you posted subsequently; merely pointing out that the 4-5 day forecast is oft times off; you are just trashing the NHC!

"safest place to be is where the NHC says it will hit in 4-5 days" is plainly and simply sarcasm attempting to draw intelliegent people into an arguement.

And you succeeded in that.

But, at least in my book; your credibility is shot and if I see a post with your name on it , I will instantly discount it as incendiary and baseless.

And in case you actually have intelligent things to add, I will probably miss them since I write you off as one who is posting just to incite..

My two cents after reading peoples posts trying to instill some logic into your words and your consistently vapid replies.....
Oh, and your title is inappropriate and plays exactly into my conclusions stated above.

[hiflyer]

Storm2k.org policy on posting amateur forecasts.. If you post a forecast in any forum it MUST be preceded by the following..

Quote:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Simple enough...delete the thread.

[bamaboy]

Please give me examples of when the 4 and 5 day solution of any hurricane has been accurate within 50 miles.

I remember the Rita track being pretty good... and Wilma's Southwest FL was even better within 20-30 miles.

Katrina was actually pretty dead on from what I recall. Lot of people bash NHC for their Charley forecast but the truth was it was in the cone and that was such a strange and unusual storm for August too. NHC does deserve criticism (just not on this forum ) but they do a pretty good job forecasting. Now their intensity forecasts...eh those need a little work