Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I seen the tutt catching Chris more then 6 to 12 hours before it happen. Heck I seen it a little longer. I can read a map.
what is the tutt?
Forecasting Chris - Most Difficult Storm in a Long Time
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jhamps10
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
The models never had a good catch on this system in the first place...It had everything to do with where it was and where the tutt was...Chris moved to slowly so the tutt got it. The nhc should of seen a 800 to 1200 mile wide tutt move its way...In seen that shear value where increasing over the cyclone at least 6 hours away. Also 6 hours before it decoupled shear was already flating the top side. Once they knew the tutt had got it it was a pretty easly forecast overall...
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gatorcane
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Frank2 wrote:Well, watching the WV loop this morning, I was very impressed - it was as if someone knocked off Chris's beanie - it's been a long time since I've seen a system weaken that rapidly and completely.
Frank
I honestly could not believe it either. I am still floored. Makes you wonder if he will pull another rapid strenghthening on us...
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Grease Monkey
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gatorcane
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The models never had a good catch on this system in the first place...It had everything to do with where it was and where the tutt was...Chris moved to slowly so the tutt got it. The nhc should of seen a 800 to 1200 mile wide tutt move its way...In seen that shear value where increasing over the cyclone at least 6 hours away. Also 6 hours before it decoupled shear was already flating the top side. Once they knew the tutt had got it it was a pretty easly forecast overall...
This TUTT has been phenomenal this year. It has single-handedly shield the US from anything originating out in the Atlantic. But it is showing signs of weakening, hence Chris.
It's only a matter of time that it will not be strong enough to shield us - typically around this time and through the next couple of weeks it begins to move out.
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SouthFloridawx
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I seen the tutt catching Chris more then 6 to 12 hours before it happen. Heck I seen it a little longer. I can read a map.
Perhaps you want to shar with us the location of the TUTT because I never heard it in any of the discussions from the hurricane center or my local news. Perhaps you can go into a little more depth and show us what a TUTT looks like.
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Derek Ortt
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JonathanBelles
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Derek on the shear maps shear was moving up at 10 knots 6 to 12 hours over the system...So the tutt was moving westward. Also 6 to 12 hours before the decoupling the outflow over the north and northeast side was getting flated. I knew that shear was increasing over the cyclone. Cheap shot I think not.
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Stormavoider
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Frank2 wrote:As Derek just said on another thread - the shear to it's east is moving westward faster than Chris, so...
Frank
Derek, At what level is this shear? Would a upper level shear have a lesser impact on this already stripped low level system? It seems what stripped it last night must have been mid-level.
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Derek Ortt
Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (but you can wikipedia it). What it is, is a broad swath of lower pressure that looks like a script "V" that sweeps down from the horse climates into the tropics. It causes shear on storms moving toward it, but it is most often found as a prevalent feature in El Nino years.
Look at the V shaped item around 67West.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
>>The models never had a good catch on this system in the first place
Sure they did. They were on their game to begin with. NOGAPS is the only one that maintains the circulation ultimately arching it down to the Mexican Coast. The UK Met moves the wave energy toward the Upper Texas coastline. The others varyingly keep something minor moving across the central Gulf of Mexico.
As far as this being a hard storm to forecast, I also disagree on that. The NHC has been on their game offering the caveats that several of the globals want to dissipate the circulation. They, IMHO, were better than expected (particularly the globals). Now what happens between now and next week is anyone's guess.
JMO of course.
Steve
Look at the V shaped item around 67West.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
>>The models never had a good catch on this system in the first place
Sure they did. They were on their game to begin with. NOGAPS is the only one that maintains the circulation ultimately arching it down to the Mexican Coast. The UK Met moves the wave energy toward the Upper Texas coastline. The others varyingly keep something minor moving across the central Gulf of Mexico.
As far as this being a hard storm to forecast, I also disagree on that. The NHC has been on their game offering the caveats that several of the globals want to dissipate the circulation. They, IMHO, were better than expected (particularly the globals). Now what happens between now and next week is anyone's guess.
JMO of course.
Steve
Last edited by Steve on Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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For all of those of you who were asking, I Wiki'd it:
A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different from mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of harmful vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere.
A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different from mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of harmful vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere.
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