Forecasting Chris - Most Difficult Storm in a Long Time

[gatorcane]

This thread is not meant to bash the NHC. I think they do a terrific job at what they do but this is the first time in a long time they COMPLETELY were wrong on their forecast for Chris.

I think Chris shows that although we have made great progress over the years in tropical forecasting, we are still a LONG way from really understanding these systems and it is what makes the tropics so suspenseful and entertaining.

Comments?

[dwg71]

gatorcane...duck

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree this was a very hard storm to forecast...It all had to do with if it stayed ahead of the tutt. It could of been a powerful hurricane or a nothing.

[gatorcane]

That is why I added that I am NOT bashing the NHC...that is not the point.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

But still you would expect the experts at the nhc to be able to see a tutt moving at the system 6 hours before it hit...How much can you ask for?

[Frank2]

Well, if they made a mistake it was not in sticking with their first TCD:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/di ... .001.shtml?

I know everyone loves the computer models, but, sometimes you just have to go with your first impression...

Frank

[gatorcane]

But still you would expect the experts at the nhc to be able to see a tutt moving at the system 6 hours before it hit...How much can you ask for?

But there had to be more reasons why it was so difficult. Why was it so difficult to forecast Chris this time?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, if they made a mistake it was not in sticking with their first TCD:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/di ... .001.shtml?

I know everyone loves the computer models, but, you just have to go with your first impression...

Frank

are you kidding? That would have been an even bigger mistake. Are you forgetting that Chris was once a 65mph TS?

[gatorcane]

Well, if they made a mistake it was not in sticking with their first TCD:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/di ... .001.shtml?

I know everyone loves the computer models, but, you just have to go with your first impression...

Frank

Indeed Frank it was short-lived, the models nailed it here.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM
STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A
LARGE UPPER-LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE
FUTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE
UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY
SHEARING FLOW IN PLACE IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS RELAX THIS FLOW...BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE GFDL MODEL
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS A VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND...BUT PERHAPS THIS MODEL
CANNOT APPRECIATE JUST HOW FRAGILE A SYSTEM THE DEPRESSION IS RIGHT
NOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MAY BE SHORT LIVED.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Because it was between two ull in which if it had set up between them. Then chris would of been a strong hurricane. But if it moved to fast or two slow then this would happen. Can't believe 6 hours before they this thing got torn to heck that hey where forecasting the same strengthing.

[Frank2]

Yes, I agree Gatocane - it was a combo between their first negative impression and the model guidance - both were correct...

Frank

[gatorcane]

I also need to eat alot of crow - I really thought Chris was going to get stronger and last longer than it did.

[Aquawind]

This isn't the first time mistakes were made. They are made for every storm just to what degreee. .. When it get's right down to forecasting is a descision from interpretation like everyone else. I am sure they would agree it wa a low confidence situation due to the conflicting models and enviroment. Most people were completely wrong about Chris like 2005 and what the temp is going to be at their house in 4 hours..

Amazes me how people think this is so damn easy.. Many think they understand how to read the sattelites and data..most have no clue and this was shown during Chris as well..

[gatorcane]

This isn't the first time mistakes were made. They are made for every storm just to what degreee. .. When it get's right down to forecasting it's descision from interpretation like everyone else. I am sure they would agree it wa a low confidence situation due to the conflicting models and enviroment. Most people were completely wrong about Chris like 2005 and what the temp is going to be at their house in 4 hours..

Amazes me how people think this is so damn easy.. Many think they understand how to read the sattelites and data..most have no clue and this was shown during Chris as well..

I agree Paul some good points as we move on here in the 2006 season....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I seen the tutt catching Chris more then 6 to 12 hours before it happen. Heck I seen it a little longer. I can read a map.

[Extremeweatherguy]

No, I'm not - read Paragraph 2 all the way to the end...

Frank

yeah, but forecasting 30kt, 30kt, 30kt for the storms whole life would have been a huge mistake considering it was up to 55 knots yesterday.

[gatorcane]

I think we'll hear things like....

this storm is going to "pull a Chris" (that is it will suddenly just go poof)

[Frank2]

True, but, their original impression was correct, versus some of the early forecasts (here and in the media) that had it much stronger...

[dwg71]

No, I'm not - read Paragraph 2 all the way to the end...

Frank

yeah, but forecasting 30kt, 30kt, 30kt for the storms whole life would have been a huge mistake considering it was up to 55 knots yesterday.

Past performance has no indication on future results... It could have had 180MPH winds and decrease to where it is now and it doesn't change the what its facing.

[gatorcane]

now we know why we were all scratching our heads Tues nights when most models lost the system.....now it all makes sense.