Current track = goodbye Chris

[ConvergenceZone]

Thats so funny
alot of you guys we saying a cat 3 by the time it gets to FL
and a cat 4-5 in the gulf..
just because everything developed last year, doesnt mean it will this year

Forgot to mention that you are very right about how last year is totally influencing some people's predictions on here. I can't count how many times I've heard "Well, look what Katrina did?" or "look what Rita did?". "look how fast rita strengthened?" etc.....So alot of folks are still caught up in last year, thinking that every storm that forms willl be a cat 3 or higher. Thankfully the national weather service doesn't think that way

[HURAKAN]

Hold up everyone, yes Chris isn't doing well but its actually still got a very good circulation, look at the visables and you can see its still got a fairly strong LLC. Yes its going to have a hard time to get back to where it was but it only would take a little relaxing of the shear and the structure is stil lin place for deepening.

i thought we learned with Td10/12 last year to never rule any system out until we are certain its dead. Chris is weak, but its not dead.

I agree that nothing is still set in stone, but it has been a dramatical change if we go back 24 hours.

[kenl01]

And Chris, if you try to scare us again, we'll throw some electromagnetic pulses through you ! That'll take care of ya !

We'll kick your butt !

[alan1961]

I AGREE KWT, CHRIS STILL HAS A HEALTHY LOOKING LLC AND IT ONLY TAKES ANOTHER FIRE UP OF THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING AND HE'LL BE COOKIN AGAIN!!!

[KWT]

Yeah its been a large change and its why I said it'd be hard for Chris to come back, though they have and can doso.

The facts are we have a pretty strong LLC still, little convection, a TD right now in all but name, but the very real possiblty of more favorable condtions just a touch ahea dof it, the same condtions that helped Chris get to a 65mph TS in the first place before those condtions outran it so to speak.

[Windtalker1]

First view of visible shows an exposed center that is moving WNW not W and seems to want to tap into some of the Thunderstorm activity to the SE of him. Looks like he will make a come back by 5pm this afternoon. I think due to the displaced LLC, the more northerly tracks will come into play. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HollynLA]

I certainly hope Chris does dissipate, but what if he doesn't follow the forecasted track? How hard would it be for him to regain his strenth once he moves away from the shear? It's not that I completely doubt the forecasted track, I just remember these things?

Katrina was going to go up the east coast
Katrina was going to hit Appalachicola
Katrina was going to hit Mobile
Rita was heading to Brownsville
Cindy was heading to Texas

This is why I don't pay much attention to many forecasted tracks until the day it's happening. Chris may very well move over the mountainous terrain and die, and I'll be thrilled with that result, I'm just not jumping up and down yet.

[Bane]

It will become a hurricane once it reaches the GOM. This will the first bad one of 2006.

That's really going out on a limb. I would have to disagree with you on that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It will become a hurricane once it reaches the GOM. This will the first bad one of 2006.

That's really going out on a limb. I would have to disagree with you on that.

It would be crazy if he was right though, wouldn't it? I mean what a comeback Chris would have to make to pull that off!

[beachbum_al]

Looks like Chris is moving to the WNW now instead of W but his winds are dropping.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 031141
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 AM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N...66.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Wouldn't this put Chris in a better environment for development if he continue moving WNW instead of W?

[dwg71]

better environment yes - but if there is not a storm then it doesnt matter.

[beachbum_al]

better environment yes - but if there is not a storm then it doesnt matter.

true!

[marcane_1973]

GOODBYE CHRIS!!! I thought he was at least going to be a tropical storm before hitting Cuba. Even that looks doubtfull now. I was writing him off since the 11:00 advisory last night. Looks like i will not be eating any crow Conditions are getting more favorable by the week. I think September is going to be the worst month and i have a feeling that alot of waves coming off of Africa will develop and will be a bad year for the East coast. The wave train is starting but we need better conditions further East which will be in place hopefully in the next couple of weeks or so. I have a feeling we are going to see a big Floyd spawn out there again and be a threat from Florida to the Carolinas.

[Innotech]

Im really not counting this storm out yet. It looks like it might be pulling in enough moisture to sustain itself for now until the shear lets up.

[dwg71]

Im really not counting this storm out yet. It looks like it might be pulling in enough moisture to sustain itself for now until the shear lets up.

I dont see any moisture within a 100 miles of the center. If it remains that way, we'll see.

[marcane_1973]

The models had Chris falling apart when they first initialized the system 4 days ago. We shouldn't be too surprised if it comes true. YESSSS indeed. That is why most forcasters and the NHC did not seem too concerned with this storm. It was supposed to do this from the get go. I think Chris just suprised everybody when winds went from 45 to 65 real quick and from last years menacing year everyone seems to think any thunderstorm blob or wave can beat out shear and dry air and go from a TS to a major cane in a day or 2. Katrina is a good example of that. That is something that is just not going to happen every year and maybe not for another 50 to 100 years.

Eric

[Innotech]

Im really not counting this storm out yet. It looks like it might be pulling in enough moisture to sustain itself for now until the shear lets up.

I dont see any moisture within a 100 miles of the center. If it remains that way, we'll see.

I see a few spots, as well as the shear linig up in a way to improve outflow and it seems to be taking in some of the ULL moisture as well. Its hard to say but that circulation is still oging and as long as it is oding that Ill keep watching it for regeneration.