Official August outlook,Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray=15/7/3

[cycloneye]

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... 6/aug2006/

This is the whole outlook for August.You can read it and comment about it.They lowered the numbers to 15/7/3,from 17/9/5 in the June update.

Jesse,you posted what you saw at the ABC link that was good information but they did not put the whole information that is now released.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow. I thought they had lowered it to 13 named storms...look like that was wrong.

[Scorpion]

Wow, you're right. They only lowered the amount of majors.

[cycloneye]

Wow, you're right. They only lowered the amount of majors.

And lowerd the number of hurricanes from 9 to 7.

[DESTRUCTION5]

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 64% (average for last century is 31%)


Mind blowing # IMO

[x-y-no]

OK, that makes much more sense.

I was pretty much floored by the earlier report. ABC didn't make clear that the numbers they gave didn't include the season up through Aug. 1.

[cycloneye]

ABSTRACT



Information obtained through July 2006 indicates that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1950-2000 season; however, we have reduced our prediction from our earlier forecasts. We estimate that 2006 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms (average is 9.6), 75 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 8 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 40 percent above the long-period average. Landfall probabilities are based upon our expectation for another active season as well as analysis of our new steering current predictors for the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States.



We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 140 percent of the long-term average. This early August forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 57 years of past global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. This 3 August forecast reduces our forecast from our early December 2005, early April 2006 and late May 2006 predictions due to small changes in June-July atmospheric and oceanic fields that indicate conditions are less favorable for tropical cyclone development in the tropical Atlantic. These changes include above-average tropical Atlantic sea level pressure, above-average tropical Atlantic trade wind strength and a decreasing trend in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Sea surface temperatures have also risen slightly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. We expect an active hurricane season for the Atlantic basin, but we do not foresee nearly as active a season as was experienced in 2004 and 2005. Seasonal updates of our 2006 forecast will be issued on 1 September and 3 October. A seasonal summary and forecast verification will be issued in late November.


Above is the abstract.

[Scorpion]

Remember everyone, in 1999 Bret did not form until the 18th of August. It is just the 3rd of August, it's practically still July. Once we roll into mid-late August things will pick up.

[cycloneye]

OK, that makes much more sense.

I was pretty much floored by the earlier report. ABC didn't make clear that the numbers they gave didn't include the season up through Aug. 1.

Yeah Jan,I was very surprised yesterday by that big lowering from 17 to 13.But we now know that ABC put out the numbers for the rest of the season and not the whole season.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Same here. I was a tad shocked that it had allegedly been lowered down to 13 yesterday. This is more reasonable for sure.

[wxman57]

As usual, the media got it wrong. Dr. Gray lowered the number of ADDITIONAL named storms to 13. 13 + 2 (before Chris) = 15 named storms. 15/7/3. Looks like he's 1 hurricane and one major low.

Question is, why did they wait until August to lower the numbers? The same reasons they mention for lowering the numbers existed in late May, as I stated in a thread back then.

[vacanechaser]

As usual, the media got it wrong. Dr. Gray lowered the number of ADDITIONAL named storms to 13. 13 + 2 (before Chris) = 15 named storms. 15/7/3. Looks like he's 1 hurricane and one major low.

Question is, why did they wait until August to lower the numbers? The same reasons they mention for lowering the numbers existed in late May, as I stated in a thread back then.

good point about the media...... sux they just cant ever give you just the facts.... straight and to the point.... never fails....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[flhurricaneguy]

i think we are done for this season

[OURAGAN]

The individual month of August, September, October, call for a very active August hurricane season,(well above average), a slightly above September and a below October hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

The individual month of August, September, October, call for a very active August hurricane season,(well above average), a slightly above September and a below October hurricane season.

They dont say it but that October below average number may be because el nino may kick in late in the season to shut it down.

[bucman1]

People have made it sound like this is going to be a sleeper of a season
because of the lower numbers, but we have yet to have a major, and the busiest time of year ahead of us.

Better not become complacent!

[willjnewton]

oh no Dr. Gray had I think said more east coast storms which the east coast has above average chance of a major hurricane and the gulf of mexico has only a 26percent chance of being hit by a major storm I am assuming is that really true???because I live in the norfolk and vicinity area of virginia by the WATER so should I be ready???

[willjnewton]

and the other thing is will a el nino likely INHIBIT upcoming storms for this hurricane season???

[cycloneye]

oh no Dr. Gray had I think said more east coast storms which the east coast has above average chance of a major hurricane and the gulf of mexico has only a 26percent chance of being hit by a major storm I am assuming is that really true???because I live in the norfolk and vicinity area of virginia by the WATER so should I be ready???

Every year during hurricane season all who live not only in Norfolk VA but all around the Atlantic Basin should be prepared for anything that may bring the season to your area,hoping for the best that nothing occurs.

[GulfBreezer]

Anyone on a coastline should be ready from June to November. That is a given.