I noticed that trend as well MW..
Seems though that the LLC is starting to get away from the convection quite a bit.
Low level center is decoupling the Mid level center
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Stratosphere747
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HouTXmetro
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Tripped out to watch, too bad it's gotta be on IR the way that other center is shooting out to the NW with the main convection and presumably any lower level circulation sinking to the south (probably temporarily). It would be a pretty cool coup for the global models if in fact Chris becomes an open wave and traverses WNW or W across the Gulf. That was the early global concensus from Sunday and Monday following whatever closed off in the NW Gulf (presumably the upper low with some minor surface reflection?). I thought that might be from one of the 2 preceeding waves. It looked for a while that they would merge because the trailing wave appeared to be moving much faster. But they didn't. Some of its energy flared up today south of Cuba while presumably interacting with some of the upper level energy from the ULL to the NW of Chris.
Steve
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Wthrman13
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btangy wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:I have to disagree. While there is certainly shear over the system it is not in the lower levels. If it were then the LLC would have been significantly disrupteed and wouldve opened up. Also, I think the MLC is still intact with the LLC. I believe this because when the LLC moved out of the convection, the CDO has seemed to lose banding and any spin whatsoever.
The shear I'm referring to is vertical shear and not horizontal in nature that would act to deform the low-level circulation, if that's what you're getting at. If there wasn't shear between the low-levels and mid-levels, the circulation would still be vertically coupled, which it clearly isn't. The sounding from San Juan at 00Z reveals the flow at the mid-levels is much stronger and out of the N compared to a relatively light easterly flow at 200mb. The calculated shear between 850mb and 200mb is much different than say 850mb and 500mb. Hence, the vertical decoupling is taking place.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/images ... .skewt.gif
Indeed, that sounding tells it all. The flow above 500 mb up to the tropopause is pretty much uniform, which explains why the mid and upper-level circulation has been able to maintain itself even while the LLC squirts away to the WNW. If the shear were over a deeper layer, as is probably more typical, a more "classic" sheared TC would result, where the entire circulation tilts in one direction and the upper-level outflow pattern is correspondingly more distorted.
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PTrackerLA
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Just logged on for the first time in a while and I'm totally stunned! The best example of a mid level circulation and LLC separating I've ever seen. Honestly I think Chris is history as the LLC shows no signs of developing new convection. It could possibly regenerate in a few days but as of right now this is definately a depression.
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Scorpion
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Scorpion wrote:How much shear is over Chris? It's gotta be at least in the 30-40 kt range if it causes the freakin LLC to decouple.
It's not that much...it's about 25 kts....but it's deep...
Now...and I pointed this out last night...I think this could be the best think for Chris...but whether he takes advantage of it is up to him.
What happened is he lagged behind. Yesterday he started really moving slow...7-9 knots. He moved out of the COL and into the shear.
Remember some of us were trying to tell a lot of the others that he didn't really look good on satellite? He didn't. I couldn't put my finger on it but something just didn't look right. Looking back...it was the MLC coming loose from the LLC and that ragged appearance was the clue.
Now that Chris doesn't have a MLC to anchor him down...he is moving at 15 knots to the WNW again. YES...the NHC says he is moving west at 11 knots...but if you go back to the 11 pm advisory and just look at point to point coordinates...he moved 90 nm at 288 (WNW) in 6 hours. That's 15 knots. The 3 hour motion is even faster....54nm in 3 hours=18 knots.
He is embedded in low level flow. He will catch up to the COL again. It is at about 24-25N and 70W. Once he gets out to about 68W the shear will drop off...and moving at 15-18 knots...he'll make that distance pretty quick.
We will then see if he wants to make some thunderstorms.
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Scorpion
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Thank You!
Chris is a strange system. I'm a little surprised that he became a TC from the beginning due to the various factors working against him. He did overcome those factors, but now the shear appears to be working against him finally, at least for now. The hurricane center discussion this morning mentioned the possibility of dissipation, but I guess that all depends on Chris !
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