Chris NHC Forecast error

[MGC]

Based on yesterday's 1800Z forecast, the NHC predicted Chris would be near 19.1N, 64.5W. Actual position today at 1800Z: 19.9N, 64.3W. Chris appears to be tracking along the nothern edge of the forecast cone of error. Ya'll in S FLa should keep this in mind. I have my doubts if the SE ridge will be as stong as forecast........MGC

[jlauderdal]

Based on yesterday's 1800Z forecast, the NHC predicted Chris would be near 19.1N, 64.5W. Actual position today at 1800Z: 19.9N, 64.3W. Chris appears to be tracking along the nothern edge of the forecast cone of error. Ya'll in S FLa should keep this in mind. I have my doubts if the SE ridge will be as stong as forecast........MGC

thx for the update, i speak for all of us in south florida, we are watching it and ready to spring into action if required.

[DelrayMorris]

Based on yesterday's 1800Z forecast, the NHC predicted Chris would be near 19.1N, 64.5W. Actual position today at 1800Z: 19.9N, 64.3W. Chris appears to be tracking along the nothern edge of the forecast cone of error. Ya'll in S FLa should keep this in mind. I have my doubts if the SE ridge will be as stong as forecast........MGC

thx for the update, i speak for all of us in south florida, we are watching it and ready to spring into action if required.

I can second that! Of course, I got everything ready at the beginning of the season (with the exception of buying gas, batteries and water, since they all seem to have a shelf life). If it does keep tracking along the northern edge of the forecast zone, we can get all of that easily enough while everyone else is still celebrating Castro's near death experience.

[chris_fit]

On the contrary, it appears it has been "wobbling" to the WSW on woth IR and radar last few hours....

[DelrayMorris]

On the contrary, it appears it has been "wobbling" to the WSW on woth IR and radar last few hours....

Let the wobble wars begin. All I can say to "it's wobbling WSW" is GREAT, ADIOS. I just got a new roof on my house and still haven't gotten the fencing fixed. And my insurance company went bankrupt. So, I figure if this thing hits anything that has , FL at the end of it, all of the other insurance companies still writing policies in Florida will stop.

So, the further south it gets, the happier I will be. But until my area is out of the cone completely, I will still watch it and make sure that I know what it's doing at all times. After that, I'll just cry for whoever gets it in the Gulf. Maybe it will still fall apart??

[wxwonder12]

There are so many mixed opinions on which way Chris is going and where it is going to go this whole situation is getting more confusing then it already was with the models having a hard time determining what this storm will do.

[GeneratorPower]

Batteries have about a 5 year shelf-life. Bottled water is usually 2 years. Gasoline is 1 year when you use a stablizer like Sta-bil, available at auto parts stores or Home Depot. Get all these items now.

[jlauderdal]

On the contrary, it appears it has been "wobbling" to the WSW on woth IR and radar last few hours....

tropical systems dont move in straight lines, yes wobbles make a difference but dont go crazy thinking every wobble is a trend, happy hurricane hunting

[chris_fit]

On the contrary, it appears it has been "wobbling" to the WSW on woth IR and radar last few hours....

tropical systems dont move in straight lines, yes wobbles make a difference but dont go crazy thinking every wobble is a trend, happy hurricane hunting

Oh i know... i never called it a trend... just something i noticed

[bigmike]

Based on yesterday's 1800Z forecast, the NHC predicted Chris would be near 19.1N, 64.5W. Actual position today at 1800Z: 19.9N, 64.3W. Chris appears to be tracking along the nothern edge of the forecast cone of error. Ya'll in S FLa should keep this in mind. I have my doubts if the SE ridge will be as stong as forecast........MGC

We must remember that the NHC has no skill whatsoever in forecasting. Total yutzes. My grandmother looking at the fig tree in her back yard has a better forecasting record.

[gerrit]

You must remember rule number 12:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

[FloridaDiver]

Based on yesterday's 1800Z forecast, the NHC predicted Chris would be near 19.1N, 64.5W. Actual position today at 1800Z: 19.9N, 64.3W. Chris appears to be tracking along the nothern edge of the forecast cone of error. Ya'll in S FLa should keep this in mind. I have my doubts if the SE ridge will be as stong as forecast........MGC

We must remember that the NHC has no skill whatsoever in forecasting. Total yutzes. My grandmother looking at the fig tree in her back yard has a better forecasting record.

You’re kidding right?
I'm not touching that comment, the logic (or lack there of…) behind that statement is self explanatory. As someone mentioned in another thread (The Cat3 Miami Hit thread..), the NHC is second to none…

[skufful]

Based on yesterday's 1800Z forecast, the NHC predicted Chris would be near 19.1N, 64.5W. Actual position today at 1800Z: 19.9N, 64.3W. Chris appears to be tracking along the nothern edge of the forecast cone of error. Ya'll in S FLa should keep this in mind. I have my doubts if the SE ridge will be as stong as forecast........MGC

We must remember that the NHC has no skill whatsoever in forecasting. Total yutzes. My grandmother looking at the fig tree in her back yard has a better forecasting record.

Well heck, let's sign grandma up, get her out of that trailer, put that cigarette and 40 ounceer down and let her do some forecasting for us.

[bigmike]

Based on yesterday's 1800Z forecast, the NHC predicted Chris would be near 19.1N, 64.5W. Actual position today at 1800Z: 19.9N, 64.3W. Chris appears to be tracking along the nothern edge of the forecast cone of error. Ya'll in S FLa should keep this in mind. I have my doubts if the SE ridge will be as stong as forecast........MGC

We must remember that the NHC has no skill whatsoever in forecasting. Total yutzes. My grandmother looking at the fig tree in her back yard has a better forecasting record.

You’re kidding right?
I'm not touching that comment, the logic (or lack there of…) behind that statement is self explanatory. As someone mentioned in another thread (The Cat3 Miami Hit thread..), the NHC is second to none…

The art of sarcasim is a dying thing.

[bigmike]

You must remember rule number 12:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

[jusforsean]

what ever happened to that thread on psychic predictions that we were going to compare this season to?

[Scott_inVA]

NHC, tropicals and many dynamical models all took the plunge tonight and shift Chris away from SFLA and across Cuba. Folks, MAJOR CHANGE. Looking at recco coming in it was alarming to see VDMs line up on a near due west track. I discounted the GFDL yesterday and if tonight's track verifies, it is a huge coup for the model (send a spatula my way for the egg on face ) Looks like the outlier GFDL went with the huge Ridge expanding and nudging Chris on a more westerly track. I wasn't going along with it until noting both the GUNS and GUNA consensus models drill Chris into Cuba.


Here's TPC/NHC error margin through the 11PM F/A:

12hrs: 36 miles
24hrs: 80 miles
36hrs: 129 miles

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Hurrilurker]

I think we're past "wobble" now, I'm looking at about 10 straight sat frames of due SW motion. Not saying it can't change but it looks good for south Florida in the short term. If the SW motion continues much longer it'll be hard for Chris to avoid getting chewed up by Hispaniola (if it doesn't dissipate on its own before that). You're never out of the woods until it's declared dead, but this looks like "a turn for the better" as it were.

[Scott_inVA]

Well, I blew it on track but have stood by the guns saying Chris could do The Big Fizzle. All the convection is displaced SE of the center. We may have the dreaded Naked Swirl and then he either goes away or completely reorganizes. either option means you can throw out every track thus far.

Fun, huh???

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Rainband]

You must remember rule number 12:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

Just to let everyone know, We do take our rules very serious. The poster who made the insulting comment to the NHC is on Vacation. Please have respect and think before you post. Thats all we ask

Sincerely
Johnathan
S2K Staff