Bill Grays Forecast... numbers lowered

[willjnewton]

okay what I was saying was I was wondering didn't Dr. Gray in his previous forecast had said only a 26 percent gulf of mexico chance and more east coast storms

[wxman57]

Just nobody be suprised if the predictions happen to be way off.

Yeah, I agree. The numbers for 2006 will be 15 / 8 / 4. Hey! That looks like MY numbers!

[Stephanie]

okay what I was saying was I was wondering didn't Dr. Gray in his previous forecast had said only a 26 percent gulf of mexico chance and more east coast storms

Here's our first thread for the season about his prediction;

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84999

He did mention that he thought that the East Coast had a greater chance this year.

[willjnewton]

but I mean Dr.Gray's august update as of the 3rd So your saying he had said he thought more east coast storms for this hurricane season than the gulf and florida because I heard that a 26percent chance I am assuming for the gulf of mexico IS THAT SO???

[wxman57]

but I mean Dr.Gray's august update as of the 3rd So your saying he had said he thought more east coast storms for this hurricane season than the gulf and florida because I heard that a 26percent chance I am assuming for the gulf of mexico IS THAT SO???

The 26% is for landfall of a major hurricane on the U.S. Gulf Coast, not any named storm. I've done a lot of research on major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, what we have seen in the past few years is WAY above normal. Looking back over the past 100 years, I believe that a major hurricane enters the Gulf only about every 2-3 years. I actually made a graphic that shows the yearly number of majors in the Gulf with a 5-year running mean. There were 2-3 or more periods when there were no major hurricanes in the Gulf for 5 years or more. And that doesn't mean it makes landfall as a major.

[Cyclenall]

Dr. Gray's numbers surprised me a bit tonight. I was thinking he would lower them by 1 or 2 but not this much. IMO it's a bit too low but I would like to know what goes into his forecast numbers.

[FloridaDiver]

Funny that he throws in specifically “The Bahamas” when mentioning above average major hurricane hit areas, overall when considering “Statistically” his past accuracy, this is a welcome bit of news for those still dealing with last years fiasco…

[mempho]

He was an absolute disaster last year. His forecast from March for the 2005 season.

* Eleven named storms, includes tropical storms and hurricanes
* Six hurricanes, three of which will be intense
* Fifty percent probability a major hurricane will hit Florida or the southeast
* 39 percent probability a major hurricane will hit the gulf coast

http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/newsrela ... cane05.htm

About as lousy a forecast as there could possibly be.

He was lousy last year, but everyonewas lousy last year. Listen, if Bill Gray was simply throwing at a dart board to come up with his numbers, people would have stopped listening to him a long, long time ago. There's a reason people do listen to what he has to say. I don't think one bad forecast in a season that noone could have predicted throws that away. That said, there's nothing that says that his forecast this year won't be just as bad.

[mempho]

Dr. Gray's numbers surprised me a bit tonight. I was thinking he would lower them by 1 or 2 but not this much. IMO it's a bit too low but I would like to know what goes into his forecast numbers.

It might be a little too low, but unless the current patterns shift, I really don't see 13. That pattern will probably shift, but it will likely be towards the heart of the season. The SAL is in place, there's a lot of shear out there, and the SSTs are not quite as high as they were before.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned was the correlation of extreme heat in the eastern US to hurricane development. The last summer that was even close to this extreme was, I believe, 2000. Maybe some people have further comments on this but if I am correct, there is a negative correlation due, in part, to dry air and the substantial ridging keeping the ULLs down south in the development zone.

I'm not about to throw up a "season cancel" as my forecast was embarassingly high earlier in the year but things have changed quite a bit.
Even so, we could have just 3 majors that go Cat 5 in the gulf along and along the east coast and this year will be substantially no different than last except for the shear numbers. My concern has been that we are entering a time of larger circulation major hurricanes that have a will of their own. As it stands, we haven't had time to see anything develop to the level that gives that an opportunity to occur. Time will tell and sheer numbers are really meaningless anyway. Its all about size, strength, and direction. One Katrina, one Andrew, and this season becomes legendary. That's something none of us hope for.

[Rainband]

how funny that he has the Gulf from FL to Brownsville at only a 26% chance of a major hurricane hit this year (compared to an average 30%), when Chris may do just that.

not this year

[vacanechaser]

last year!!! ok, one year.... even noaa was way off on their predictions for last year.... no one expected those kinds of numbers last year.... we new it would be high...but 28????



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[kenl01]

I'm glad to hear it. I would agree that 13 should be about correct, minus or plus 2. The conditions this year are not nearly as favorable as last year (due to ULL's, shear, dry air, cooler water...etc), so taking those factors into consideration I'd agree with his update.
A different discussion back in May focused on about 13 named storms this year, based in part on the Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation (AMO) factor, being at the lowest value since 1994.

Ken

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't know why some people are so surprised. Has anyone checked the latest ENSO.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produ ... enso.shtml
and the soi has been negative mainly for over a month or longer. i say el nino by the end of the year maybe sooner. experts keep saying it usually happens in the spring but what the heck do they know. were they around 1000 years ago.

[Trader Ron]

I bet if Dr Gray lowered his numbers by one, some people would not be bashing him. If he raised ...they would think he's the best thing since sliced bread.

[Stephanie]

but I mean Dr.Gray's august update as of the 3rd So your saying he had said he thought more east coast storms for this hurricane season than the gulf and florida because I heard that a 26percent chance I am assuming for the gulf of mexico IS THAT SO???

I didn't get into detail with his forecast will. I think he said that there was an increased chance for hurricanes hitting the East Coast this year. Not all hurricanes are landfalling hurricanes. The 26% chance for the Gulf could still stand even if there is an increased chance of landfalling hurricanes for the East Coast. If that is the case, then we would be saying that more of the storms this year would be landfalling storms than in the previous year.

[Jim Hughes]

I don't know why some people are so surprised. Has anyone checked the latest ENSO.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produ ... enso.shtml
and the soi has been negative mainly for over a month or longer. i say el nino by the end of the year maybe sooner. experts keep saying it usually happens in the spring but what the heck do they know. were they around 1000 years ago.

The shifts in the ENSO have not been occurring in spring during the past several years. It has been starting to show up in the summer and it becomes more pronounced during late fall and into the winter. Like the La Nina last winter and the extremely weak warming trend the winter before.

The late start seems to keep it somewhat hidden from some people's perspective. (Those who rely on certain SST's only.) But you can see certain behavioral trends in the atmosphere in you monitor things closely.

[StormWarning1]

Dr. Gray did not lower the number of storms to 13. The ABC news story in not correct.
He lowered the number to 15 for the season total.

[Scorpion]

Think about this. 1999 was considered an active season yet had only 12 named storms. And it didn't really get going until late August. We still have time.

[Stormsfury]

I'm not really surprised by the lowering of the numbers either, in fact, I was going to lower mine as well as we got into the season in which I had stated in my prognostic outlook several months back in the Tropical Analysis thread...

SF

[Stephanie]

I'm not really surprised by the lowering of the numbers either, in fact, I was going to lower mine as well as we got into the season in which I had stated in my prognostic outlook several months back in the Tropical Analysis thread...

SF

BTW - it's good to see you back!