Where will Chris go?

[Stratusxpeye]

Not to start anything but did anyone else noticed every poster in this forum is from texas? Discussing "Chris has texas written all over it". Not saying it wont happen but it would be very unusual to see it treck literally the exact location from formation to end straight accross the gulf, fl straights and east atlantic. Have to see. I would expect a northerly turn once in the gulf area. Maybe still texas but north tx/la.

[stormie_skies]

Not to start anything but did anyone else noticed every poster in this forum is from texas? Discussing "Chris has texas written all over it". Not saying it wont happen but it would be very unusual to see it treck literally the exact location from formation to end straight accross the gulf, fl straights and east atlantic. Have to see. I would expect a northerly turn once in the gulf area. Maybe still texas but north tx/la.

Stratus - for one thing, many if not most of us are from southeast Texas, either from the Houston metro, Galveston or the Beaumont area.

For another, yeah, we are interested - because we are listening to the pro mets both here and locally, and they have indicated that conditions are right for a LA/TX/MX strike. People usually get interested when pro mets say a storm might be heading their way. Nothing unusual about that.

No one has banned Floridians, BTW. Anyone is free to jump in if they like

[WhiteShirt]

we are listening to the pro mets both here and locally, and they have indicated that conditions are right for a LA/TX/MX strike. People usually get interested when pro mets say a storm might be heading their way.

Especially since they are saying so this early.

[ronjon]

Since i'm from FL I'll chime in. The models are kinda of in both camps - on one hand, you have GFDL, the BAMS, and the FSU Super indicating a W or W-SW path into Hispanola and westward south of Cuba. On the other hand, most of the global models such as CMC, NOGAPs, UKMET, GFS, plus the FSUMM5 and NAM take the system on a more NW course into the Bahamas and S FL. It all comes down to the strength of the Bermuda Ridge - the global models I noticed temporarily weaken the ridge over the next 3-5 days and then build it back to the west after 5 days while the other models keep a stronger ridge throughout. The globals lose the storm except for the NOGAPS but the synoptic pattern would remain with or w/o maintaining the circulation. The NHC is obviously splitting the track down the middle now. We should know within 36 hrs which camp of models are correct. After 5 days, I wouldn't speculate on a track in the GOM since the long wave pattern can change dramatically from what is forecast today. What sticks in my mind is climatology - the odds of maintaining a ridge w/o some troffiness intruding in the picture are pretty slim for more than a week. From HPC disc:

THE GOOD NEWS: THE NEW 12Z/02 GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL POINT TOWARD A COOLING TREND OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE PLAINS
STATES...EXTENDING SWD TO THE NRN GULF STATES E OF THE MS RIVER. INCREASING AMPLITUDE OF AN H5 TROF IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BY DAY 5 SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN MPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NOAM AND THE RESULTANT SWD ENETRATION OF MUCH COOLER AIR. FINAL MANUAL GRAPHICS HAVE FOLLOWED ACCORDINGLY.

T.S. CHRIS MOVES INTO THE PRELIM FORECAST AREA BY DAY 4. I USED AN EXTRAPOLATED NHC TRACK AFTER DAY 5 TO CONTINUE THE SYSTEM ON ABOUT A 285 DEGREE HEADING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SURFACE FORECASTS FROM THE 12Z/01 ECMWF AND THE 00Z/02 GFS SHOW FAIRLY HIGH SPREAD FOR TUE/WED DAYS 6-7 IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BELOW THE TX/LA COASTS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/CHRIS.d1.track.png

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Stratosphere747]

Not to start anything but did anyone else noticed every poster in this forum is from texas? Discussing "Chris has texas written all over it". Not saying it wont happen but it would be very unusual to see it treck literally the exact location from formation to end straight accross the gulf, fl straights and east atlantic. Have to see. I would expect a northerly turn once in the gulf area. Maybe still texas but north tx/la.

You will be amazed how many of "us" Texans have looked at this objectively.

In fact, I've asserted that Chris could equally be a Mexico landfall as a CONUS landfall.

Please don't group the "Texans" on this board into a generalization of a few posters that you analyze.

[Cape Verde]

I have no idea where it's going to make landfall, and there's still plenty of time to argue about any additional clues before deciding.

However, nobody has made a serious argument that it can't hit me, and I think it's a fine time to go ahead and replenish my supplies for the year.

[stormchazer]

I think a lot of Texans are saying this is a Texas storm because, the initial models indicate its a Texas storm. A lot of Mets are saying it is likely a Texas storm. Hopefully it is a disipating storm. The only thing I truly care about is that is not a Central Florida storm, then that everyone else is alright.

God speed my fellow Americans, Texan or otherwise.

[f5]

thats what they said about Rita its a Texas storm

[timNms]

Texas, Florida, Mexico.....any of you guys can have Chris. Katrina was quite enough for me

My personal opinion is that Chris is headed west toward Texas or Mexico. From the national weather service discussions (Jackson, MS. Mobile, AL. and NO, LA) it's looking likely that Chris will continue his westward ways.

[Brent]

I'm pretty sure this is Texas bound(maybe even Northern Mexico). The local mets around here said the same on the news tonight... but, nothing is ever certain with weather.

[wxman57]

Not to start anything but did anyone else noticed every poster in this forum is from texas? Discussing "Chris has texas written all over it". Not saying it wont happen but it would be very unusual to see it treck literally the exact location from formation to end straight accross the gulf, fl straights and east atlantic. Have to see. I would expect a northerly turn once in the gulf area. Maybe still texas but north tx/la.

Hey, I'm from Lafayette, LA! It does look like the ridge will remain strong north of Chris, though. Northern Mexico to mid Texas coast may be a good bet. The region from Tampico to the southwest Louisiana coast appears to be at the greatest risk. Landfall as early as next Wednesday afternoon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Not to start anything but did anyone else noticed every poster in this forum is from texas? Discussing "Chris has texas written all over it". Not saying it wont happen but it would be very unusual to see it treck literally the exact location from formation to end straight accross the gulf, fl straights and east atlantic. Have to see. I would expect a northerly turn once in the gulf area. Maybe still texas but north tx/la.

Hey, I'm from Lafayette, LA! It does look like the ridge will remain strong north of Chris, though. Northern Mexico to mid Texas coast may be a good bet.

What do you think about Chan. 2 Frank B's idea of the upper low in west TX causing this storm to turn north and hit SE Texas or SW Louisiana idea? Is there any chance this could happen?

[Innotech]

Im also from Lafayette *points to location

Even if it landfalls in upper Texas, I think Rita provd that Louisiana will feel quite a bit of it.

[jlauderdal]

Not to start anything but did anyone else noticed every poster in this forum is from texas? Discussing "Chris has texas written all over it". Not saying it wont happen but it would be very unusual to see it treck literally the exact location from formation to end straight accross the gulf, fl straights and east atlantic. Have to see. I would expect a northerly turn once in the gulf area. Maybe still texas but north tx/la.

hey im florida and i said this morning it was going between homestead and havana and i am stickingin to it and i think it will hit texas

[bayoubebe]

Not to start anything but did anyone else noticed every poster in this forum is from texas? Discussing "Chris has texas written all over it". Not saying it wont happen but it would be very unusual to see it treck literally the exact location from formation to end straight accross the gulf, fl straights and east atlantic. Have to see. I would expect a northerly turn once in the gulf area. Maybe still texas but north tx/la.

This sounds typical to me. Don't most Louisianians think LA., Floridians predict Florida etc?

I clearly understand WHY the EARLY thinking is Texas.

Keep in mind though, I think we were told 2 days before Katrina hit, that New Orleans was a strong possibility. I repeat........TWO days.

Before that, NOLA wasn't even in the running, so to speak.

I have no weather background, but can tell you from years of following these things......it seems quite early for an ACCURATE prediction.

I guess we'll see.

No matter where Chris hits, I hope the damage is minimal, and no lives are lost.

[f5]

Where will Chris go?hmmm Galveston Bay in which RITA WAS SUPPOSE TO GO accroding to JOE BASTARDI of FANTASYWEATHER

[chrisnnavarre]

This storm has Opal, Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina written all over it. Especially this time of year. Texas would be a nice surprise however, as long as it goes into a sparcely populated area. Unfortunately I'm sticking with central Mississippi Gulf Coast. Goodby Casinos, gee and they were just getting back into business over there. NO Way this going south of Cuba and into Mexico. It's just getting stronger by the hour and will continue throughout the night, that much I think we can take to the bank.

[wxman57]

Not to start anything but did anyone else noticed every poster in this forum is from texas? Discussing "Chris has texas written all over it". Not saying it wont happen but it would be very unusual to see it treck literally the exact location from formation to end straight accross the gulf, fl straights and east atlantic. Have to see. I would expect a northerly turn once in the gulf area. Maybe still texas but north tx/la.

Hey, I'm from Lafayette, LA! It does look like the ridge will remain strong north of Chris, though. Northern Mexico to mid Texas coast may be a good bet.

What do you think about Chan. 2 Frank B's idea of the upper low in west TX causing this storm to turn north and hit SE Texas or SW Louisiana idea? Is there any chance this could happen?

I think it's too early to rule out the upper TX coast or SW LA. Remember early on the models had projected Rita to move into northern Mexico. It's always hard to tell (8 days out) when the western side of the ridge may break down and allow for a NW turn.

[bayoubebe]

Where will Chris go?hmmm Galveston Bay in which RITA WAS SUPPOSE TO GO accroding to JOE BASTARDI of FANTASYWEATHER

Huh, enough said! LOL

[webke]

I think that it would be better if the members did not try to focus on how many are from Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, Etc. We are all American's and at some point whether it is Chris or another storm, there will be a lot of us Americans that will need assistance from a tropical storm or hurricane. Let's try to put the boundaries in back of us and focus on the larger picture.
Just my two cents.