Bill Grays Forecast... numbers lowered

[stormtruth]

Bill Gray. Some expert. Why does he get more than one chance to guess? That's just pathetic.

[westmoon]

Andrew92,

It only takes one.......

Yeah it does only take one but the less we have to worry about the better.

[Jim Hughes]

I am waiting for the release of the full outlook to see if they say something about el nino by october causing their lowering.

Some of us have been talking about the ENSO changes recently. Especially the changes during the past 30 days. It would probably not have an effect until late in the season and the big question still remains. Will it nulify the colder stratosphere - favorable AMO though?

I have tried to post graphics here with no success. Read my post here from another website.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php ... pic=102850

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah it does only take one but the less we have to worry about the better.

I understand your point but, unfortunately, I disagree. Would you have said the same in 1992 - a relatively quite inactive season - if you experienced Andrew in southern Miami-Dade County (Kendall/South Miami Heights to Homestead area) at ground zero?

[P.K.]

Bill Gray. Some expert. Why does he get more than one chance to guess? That's just pathetic.

The closer you get to the the time you are forecasting obviously the better your knowledge of the conditions so it makes sense for them to not just do a single forecast in December. This is a forecast from Philip Klotzbach though and not Bill Gray.

[Grease Monkey]

Just nobody be suprised if the predictions happen to be way off.

[stormtruth]

Just nobody be suprised if the predictions happen to way off.

They won't be. Dr. Gray will just make another prediction in November

[Grease Monkey]

Just nobody be suprised if the predictions happen to way off.

They won't be. Dr. Gray will just make another prediction in November

Probably so.

[wxwatcher91]

very interesting.

I just want to make a comment about 2005:

While obviously the factors came together for a big season (with the highlighted factor being high SSTs), I think that one of the factors overlooked is chance.

Was it not chance that placed Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Cindy, and Arlene over the Loop Current? Obviously at the time it was steering currents, but considering that steering currents can change day to day, it's chance that Katrina didnt form a day later and maybe then instead moved north faster and hit the panhandle.

That's why it is so hard to say exactly how active a season will be. sure you can look at ENSO and SSTs and all but the factor of chance can make a huge difference.

[vacanechaser]

Just nobody be suprised if the predictions happen to way off.

They won't be. Dr. Gray will just make another prediction in November

well, lets take your first question... who is bill gray??? to start, he has been doing this forecast for many years now... some 20 years ago or even longer, people were telling him he would never be able to figure out how many possible storms we would have in the early months of the year, and even in the months during the season... he proved them wrong with a long track record of being accurate or very close to it for many years.... and he proved them wrong time and time again... next they told him that there was no way he could see months in advance an area most likely to be hit either more than normal, or less so.. lets say his landfall forecasts.... well, he proved them wrong once again...once he proved it could be done, then noaa started doing their own.... funny how that happened...

conditions change with time of course.. we have just seen that with chris... would not develop and what not.... conditions were unfavorable, but that changed.... you make a forecast in the long range and as coditions warrent, you improve on that forecast... i see the local mets and the kooks on the weather channel do that everyday... changes from day to day...

he was once marked as a crazy man for trying to figure out the possible forecast and track so early on, and he proved it with skill time and time again... i think he has a better handel on it than anyone...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[stormtruth]

He was an absolute disaster last year. His forecast from March for the 2005 season.

* Eleven named storms, includes tropical storms and hurricanes
* Six hurricanes, three of which will be intense
* Fifty percent probability a major hurricane will hit Florida or the southeast
* 39 percent probability a major hurricane will hit the gulf coast

http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/newsrela ... cane05.htm

About as lousy a forecast as there could possibly be.

[MGC]

Good! 13 is still too many. We need to quit at Chris....MGC

[Grease Monkey]

He was an absolute disaster last year. His forecast from March for the 2005 season.

* Eleven named storms, includes tropical storms and hurricanes
* Six hurricanes, three of which will be intense
* Fifty percent probability a major hurricane will hit Florida or the southeast
* 39 percent probability a major hurricane will hit the gulf coast

http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/newsrela ... cane05.htm

About as lousy a forecast as there could possibly be.

Come on he was only off by 17. Give the guy a break.

[f5]

That is good news any way you look at it

It only takes one.......

"ANDREW"

[willjnewton]

I was wondering since Dr. Gray had said I am assuming only a 26percent chance for a gulf of mexico hit and a 64percent east coast hit is that true???like is that true more east coast storms for this hurricane season instead of the gulf of mexico or florida??? should I be ready because I live by the water in norfolk va

[Jim Hughes]

very interesting.

I just want to make a comment about 2005:

While obviously the factors came together for a big season (with the highlighted factor being high SSTs), I think that one of the factors overlooked is chance.

Was it not chance that placed Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Cindy, and Arlene over the Loop Current? Obviously at the time it was steering currents, but considering that steering currents can change day to day, it's chance that Katrina didnt form a day later and maybe then instead moved north faster and hit the panhandle.

That's why it is so hard to say exactly how active a season will be. sure you can look at ENSO and SSTs and all but the factor of chance can make a huge difference.

You can not blame all of last years activity on the SST's and the loop current. This is an excuse that seems to get perpetuated around here. Especially during the times of a lousy forecast.

Even TWC's Steve Lyons wrote about this on their blog about a month or two ago. The late season storms from last year showed us how other important factors come into play.

[Grease Monkey]

Everyone on east and gulf coast should be prepared. I take these predictions very lightly always expecting the unexpected.

[willjnewton]

But I was wondering didn't Dr. Gray in his recent outlook said only a 26percent chance in the gulf of mexico from florida panhandle westward to brownsville texas so doesn't he expect more east coast storms than the gulf of mexico I thought???

[willjnewton]

hello I believe I just asked a question just then can someone answer me please

[Stephanie]

hello I believe I just asked a question just then can someone answer me please

Will - give people a chance to answer.