Bill Grays Forecast... numbers lowered

vacanechaser · #1 Postby **vacanechaser** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:26 pm

here is a link to a story released minutes ago.... Gray lowers his numbers...

http://www.abc-7.com/articles/readnews. ... 197&z=2&p=

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

WindRunner · #2 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:28 pm

Wow . . . what a drop. Few here were expecting that.

Aquawind · #3 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:29 pm

Yep.. Phil and Bill are paying attention alrighty..

#4 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:30 pm

That's very close to what I thought. The factors for another '05 season are just not there, but the season will still probably be above average.

-Andrew92

Extremeweatherguy · #5 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:31 pm

how funny that he has the Gulf from FL to Brownsville at only a 26% chance of a major hurricane hit this year (compared to an average 30%), when Chris may do just that.

HurricaneHunter914 · #6 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:32 pm

Wow, this is even lower than the amount of named storms there were in 2004. Hopefully Dr. Gray is right.

vacanechaser · #7 Postby **vacanechaser** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:32 pm

Andrew92 wrote:That's very close to what I thought. The factors for another '05 season are just not there, but the season will still probably be above average.

-Andrew92

no one said it would be like 2005

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:36 pm

A little surprising, but I always thought it would be closer to 2004 than 2005...

#9 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:36 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:That's very close to what I thought. The factors for another '05 season are just not there, but the season will still probably be above average.

-Andrew92

no one said it would be like 2005

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I'm more referencing to the fact that some people (who I won't say) are trying to compare this year to last year, because I know Dr. Gray isn't comparing this season to last year. I thought 17 was high when I saw it too. I originally thought 15 was a decent number, but I wonder about 13 or 14 now too.

Just wanted to make that clear. :wink:

-Andrew92

vacanechaser · #10 Postby **vacanechaser** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:38 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
vacanechaser wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:That's very close to what I thought. The factors for another '05 season are just not there, but the season will still probably be above average.

-Andrew92

no one said it would be like 2005

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I'm more referencing to the fact that some people (who I won't say) are trying to compare this year to last year, because I know Dr. Gray isn't comparing this season to last year. I thought 17 was high when I saw it too. I originally thought 15 was a decent number, but I wonder about 13 or 14 now too.

Just wanted to make that clear.

-Andrew92

10-4....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

westmoon · #11 Postby **westmoon** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:39 pm

That is good news any way you look at it :woo:

Grease Monkey · #12 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:39 pm

I still have feeling that we'll have more named storms than he predicts. Personally I don't see the point of these forecasts except for pure entertainment.

#13 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:40 pm

westmoon wrote:That is good news any way you look at it

It only takes one.......

WindRunner · #14 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:42 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:I still have feeling that we'll have more named storms than he predicts. Personally I don't see the point of these forecasts except for pure entertainment.

Well, if people said the same about forecasting hurricanes and tornadoes fifty years ago (which had comparable accuracy to these forecasts), where would we be today?

Aquawind · #15 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:43 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
westmoon wrote:That is good news any way you look at it

It only takes one.......

Well count on 2 this time.. Less storms = :woo:

#16 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:45 pm

I'm a little surprised, however it makes sense if you think about it. He says the highest risk will be to the East Coast, well usually when you get an East Coast season (1938, 1954, and 1991 spring to mind) the number of storms tend to be nearly average, or even below average. There is a reason behind this, and it is quite simply that to bring the majority of the storms either up the East Coast, or out to sea, you need a great deal of Troughs in the East and Western Atlantic, which usually work in tandem with strong upper level winds which tend to disrupt TC formation, and intensification.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:47 pm

I am waiting for the release of the full outlook to see if they say something about el nino by october causing their lowering.

darkclouds · #18 Postby **darkclouds** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:50 pm

The numbers he predicts are jus that predictions. I think the numbers will be more than what he is predicting. You cannot predict with preciseness when it comes to mother nature. The storms will unfold in time.

ConvergenceZone · #19 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:50 pm

What's Bill Gray's accuracy rating with his predictions?? I've never seen anything like that posted before. Does anyone have stats on this?? I only say that because if his predictions have been lousy in the past, we shouldn't make much of what he says now. ....

Dusty

rainstorm · #20 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:51 pm

great news. not surprising though

Bill Grays Forecast... numbers lowered

Bill Grays Forecast... numbers lowered

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