I think Chris will hit Miami or Havana as a Cat 3

[zlaxier]

My reasoning is very simple. The NHC 4 and 5 day forecasts are fair to poor and they readily admit it that they lack skill in this area. Intensity forecasts are downright abysmal and they readily admit they have basically no skill in this area.

Thus, wherever they say 4 or 5 days out, will most likely be very wrong.

So if they say FL straits now at a Cat 1, I'd be worrying if I was in Havana or Miam that i'd get hit by a major.

[secretforecaster]

Is that your only reasoning?

[Stratusxpeye]

My reasoning is very simple. The NHC 4 and 5 day forecasts are fair to poor and they readily admit it that they lack skill in this area. Intensity forecasts are downright abysmal and they readily admit they have basically no skill in this area.

Thus, wherever they say 4 or 5 days out, will most likely be very wrong.

So if they say FL straits now at a Cat 1, I'd be worrying if I was in Havana or Miam that i'd get hit by a major.

Hmm do we think this could have been posted in the other 2 or 3 threads about where chris is going?

[zlaxier]

I've found that the safest place to be in a hurricane is where the NHC says it'll hit 4 or 5 days out.

I'd feel much more comfortable if I was in Miami and the NHC said that the storm would be hitting head on in Miami 4 or 5 days out.

[Vandora]

Well. I, for one, hope you're wrong. No offence or anything.

[Aquawind]

I wouldn't read into that to deep anyone.. Some day you will find it to be a foolish mistake to assume.

[Downdraft]

By your own logic your own analysis is seriously flawed. Since your pretty new here I suggest you go back to previous storms and read the same type of mistake your making. Also, forecasting a major landfall on a metropolitan area without anything but your logic is seriously frowned on. Despite all of their power tropical systems are actually quite fragile and very complex. While some have blown into major status seemingly out of nowhere just as many have fallen apart. Only time and the overall synoptic environment tells the true tale.

[Bane]

I seriously doubt your reasoning.

[george_r_1961]

My reasoning is very simple. The NHC 4 and 5 day forecasts are fair to poor and they readily admit it that they lack skill in this area. Intensity forecasts are downright abysmal and they readily admit they have basically no skill in this area.

Thus, wherever they say 4 or 5 days out, will most likely be very wrong.

So if they say FL straits now at a Cat 1, I'd be worrying if I was in Havana or Miam that i'd get hit by a major.

To base your forecast on the assumption that a forecast made by a professional agency will be wrong is absurd. There is no scientific basis for your forecast whatsoever. In conclusion: NHC is second to none.

[Cape Verde]

Flaming is frowned upon around here, but many of us were basically complete laymen when we found this forum.

It is far better to read and learn for awhile just so that you can ask an intelligent question than it is to jump in with baseless predictions.

This is a serious forum and there are a lot of people here who know more about the weather than I ever will.

It's better to learn than it is to make splashy statements in an effort to draw responses. Trolling isn't what this forum is about.

[FloridaDiver]

Would be nice if he shared just the slightest bit of synoptic reasoning behind his “simple reasoning”, can’t believe what I am reading this evening, someone else was comparing the NHC’s accuracy to their grandmother and a fig tree... go figure…!

All I can say is thank you for the people who work at the NHC!

[Grease Monkey]

But that's what also makes this forum fun to read. The people that stir up the drama.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Would be nice if he shared just the slightest bit of synoptic reasoning behind his “simple reasoning”, can’t believe what I am reading this evening, someone else was comparing the NHC’s accuracy to their grandmother and a fig tree... go figure…!

All I can say is thank you for the people who work at the NHC!

I read that too, and couldn't help but roll my eyes.

The NHC bashing needs to stop.

If they do get a forecast wrong, it isn't for lack of effort and trying. I'm sure they're just dying to get it wrong. [/sarcasm]

Seriously, it's their job and they try to do the best given what the computers and other sources are telling them, and their own reasoning.

[zlaxier]

The 4 and 5 day forecasts are not very good! I never said the NHC was bad, just that the science of predicting storm tracks that far out is not very good. The NHC has admitted so on numerous occasions.

The main value of the 4 and 5 day forecasts is for the trends and to give people in vulnerable regions (such as the keys) more time to make preparations.

But as far as pinpointing specific landfall locations, they are useless products with very large errors. The NHC won't even pinpoint a specific landfall location 24 hours out, the errors are so large.

So with a product with a poor track history, it is entirely logical to assume that the correct solution will not be the 4 and 5 day solution.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

But, zlaxier, it is also incorrect to assume that the storm won't take that path.

They put out the BEST track possible. And ANYWHERE in the cone is possible.

Your forecast is also a cone. A cone between Havana and Miami. By saying that it will hit either one of those cities you also are saying it could also hit somewhere in between.

[george_r_1961]

[quote="zlaxier"]The 4 and 5 day forecasts are not very good! I never said the NHC was bad, just that the science of predicting storm tracks that far out is not very good. The NHC has admitted so on numerous occasions.

The main value of the 4 and 5 day forecasts is for the trends and to give people in vulnerable regions (such as the keys) more time to make preparations.

But as far as pinpointing specific landfall locations, they are useless products with very large errors. The NHC won't even pinpoint a specific landfall location 24 hours out, the errors are so large.

So with a product with a poor track history, it is entirely logical to assume that the correct solution will not be the 4 and 5 day solution
Oh boy now ive heard it all

[canegrl04]

In defense of the poster,it is widely known that the hardest thing about hurricane forecasting is the intensity. I have witnessed amazing things happen to a hurricane when the forecast was what turned out to be too conservative.But I don't think it would be wise if the NHC started talking cat 5 early in the ball game.The NHC still,does the best they can

[zlaxier]

Please give me examples of when the 4 and 5 day solution of any hurricane has been accurate within 50 miles.

[george_r_1961]

Please give me examples of when the 4 and 5 day solution of any hurricane has been accurate within 50 miles.

Thats not the issue here. Your logic defies explanation.

[Brent]

Please give me examples of when the 4 and 5 day solution of any hurricane has been accurate within 50 miles.

I remember the Rita track being pretty good... and Wilma's Southwest FL was even better within 20-30 miles.