South Florida is Watching Chris Closely

[gatorcane]

South Floridians post your thoughts about Chris as it looks to be a decent probability there could be a South Florida hit....

I am getting quite worried looking at the sat pics and model guidance shifting north.

[Scorpion]

I feel safe here in Jupiter. We're way too far north for anything. It might be a problem near Miami though.

[tgenius]

I live in Miami, so I am absolutely concerned... especially since its setting up to totally ruin my weekend!

[seaswing]

I feel safe here in Jupiter. We're way too far north for anything. It might be a problem near Miami though.

Still too early to say that...

[gatorcane]

All of South and central Florida are in the cone....W Palm Beach to the Florida Keys should be making preparations now....

[LightningInTheEye]

Well in regards to S. FLA, here is what I have read so far from the forum...

"What are the chances of this storm going even further north then the Keys??"-wxwonder12
"not very good at the present time, though a south Florida mainlan strike is still possible"-Derek Ortt


Well the following certainly doesn't sound as reassuring as last night's "It's a northern Cuba storm" prediction...

"http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
A lot of the model shifted northward on the 06Z run than last night."-SouthFloridawx

"Chris is ever so slightly north of the previous track. There is little change in the forecast reasoning from 12 hours ago. Only slight difference is a slight right shift in the longer term forecast locations, in agreement with the latest guidance. This keeps the storm over the Florida Straits, very near the southern Keys in a little less than 5 days. The ridge may not be quite as strong as the models were suggesting."-Derek Ortt

[Canelaw99]

I didn't really notice the northward shift until I hopped on the computer and was looking at the 11am graphics (the 7am news doesn't show it so accurately ). As Chris continues to move in a more northwesterly direction, rather than w/nw, I get more concerned. I haven't seen the SST maps for today/this week, but I know the waters all around the southern tip of the state are quite steamy, and I could totally see Chris strengthing quickly once it hits those waters, but that's just my opinion....

I'm planning to go out this afternoon and top of my car (I work from home so I don't use much gas), pick up water, etc. and be done with it before the rush starts. I'll be quite happy if it stays on the path and goes south of the Keys, but I"m not totally buying it yet....

[Scorpion]

Far too early IMO to make preparations. Still 4 days out. Once its passes Hispaniola and if it still looks like its headed WNW toward S FL then I might make some preps.

[gatorcane]

Far too early IMO to make preparations. Still 4 days out. Once its passes Hispaniola and if it still looks like its headed WNW toward S FL then I might make some preps.

South Florida is clearly in the cone, it extends all the way up to Cape Canaveral.....I would prepare

[dwg71]

I feel safe here in Jupiter. We're way too far north for anything. It might be a problem near Miami though.

Jupiter is well within the cone of terror. I would not let this sneak up on you.

[gatorcane]

also the more WNW it goes - it could follow an Andrew like path just keep that in mind. It all depends when the secondary ridge builds in and how strong it is...

[cheezyWXguy]

I think its gonna skirt the florida keys, probably passing within about 30 miles or so of key west...I think the Gulf has a much bigger problem

[x-y-no]

Not too worried yet. My plan is to get gas (including filling some cans for the generator) and cash Friday if it's still looking likely, and to do shutters Saturday afternoon or evening if needed.

Everything else is already done.

[Canelaw99]

It is a little early, Scorpion, but I, for one, don't feel like dealing with the rush of people that will surely be out in a day or so if this thing has it's sights on S. FL

[Ground_Zero_92]

also the more WNW it goes - it could follow an Andrew like path just keep that in mind. It all depends when the secondary ridge builds in and how strong it is...

That is a scary thought.

[FloridaDiver]

Although Chris warrants attention at this time, after reading forecasts and reviewing the overall weather patterns projected by the models, I’m still not convinced that Chris will be a direct hit (Dade/Broward/Palm Beach) for South Florida, I’m thinking more of a Rita-like path from last year, unfortunately closer to the Key’s this time around. I’m afraid my scuba friends down in the Conch Republic will be in evacuation mode yet again by this coming weekend.

[Noah]

Any folks in sarasota watching chris? Concerns??

[LightningInTheEye]

Although Chris warrants attention at this time, after reading forecasts and reviewing the overall weather patterns projected by the models, I’m still not convinced that Chris will be a direct hit (Dade/Broward/Palm Beach) for South Florida, I’m thinking more of a Rita-like path from last year, unfortunately closer to the Key’s this time around. I’m afraid my scuba friends down in the Conch Republic will be in evacuation mode yet again by this coming weekend.

"The gfs takes Chris or whatever is left of chris into south florida. 06Z
Nogaps takes chris into south florida also. 00Z"-SouthFloridawx

Since yesterday, most of the computer models have shifted north. I remember yesterday when the forecast path called for Chris to skirt northern Cuba, now it is skirting the Keys...that is a shift of about 100 miles. Unlike Rita, Chris has developed further west, giving more uncertainty to the forecast track.

The ULL to the east of FLA has temporarily weakened the ridge...the next 24 hours will be very critical since this may be the only opportunity for Chris to gain some latitude...after this, the ridge will stabilize taking Chris more WNW (290 degrees) instead of its current intermittent NW wobbles. Chris's position (especially it's lattitude) after these next 24 hours transpire will be critical in determining what if any effect Florida will feel.

[gatorcane]

Although Chris warrants attention at this time, after reading forecasts and reviewing the overall weather patterns projected by the models, I’m still not convinced that Chris will be a direct hit (Dade/Broward/Palm Beach) for South Florida, I’m thinking more of a Rita-like path from last year, unfortunately closer to the Key’s this time around. I’m afraid my scuba friends down in the Conch Republic will be in evacuation mode yet again by this coming weekend.

"The gfs takes Chris or whatever is left of chris into south florida. 06Z
Nogaps takes chris into south florida also. 00Z"-SouthFloridawx

Since yesterday, most of the computer models have shifted north. I remember yesterday when the forecast path called for Chris to skirt northern Cuba, now it is skirting the Keys...that is a shift of about 100 miles. Unlike Rita, Chris has developed further west, giving more uncertainty to the forecast track.

The ULL to the east of FLA has temporarily weakened the ridge...the next 24 hours will be very critical since this may be the only opportunity for Chris to gain some latitude...after this, the ridge will stabilize taking Chris more WNW (290 degrees) instead of its current intermittent NW wobbles. Chris's position (especially it's lattitude) after these next 24 hours transpire will be critical in determining what if any effect Florida will feel.

You hit it on the head - great summary. In fact if you look at the latest NHC discussion they are not sure if that secondary ridge will be strong enough to move it W. They clearly say a WNW track without it - that would put it right into South Florida.

[jusforsean]

Just a small Jog a were in the eye remember andrews path switched counties and it was too late for those who didnt prepare to do so, in a mobile home we leave no matter what but we are in prep mode, although in the case around here tropic storm winds could be bad for the tarps that still fly around here.