Can Chris be a hurricane by 11am?

[Josephine96]

Well of course it can

The question is actually will it be..? Honestly i think they may bump the winds up to 70 but 75 most likely not till tonight or early tomorrow..

thoughts and comments welcomed..

[deltadog03]

not until recon imo

[Josephine96]

and they send the plane out, when?

[clfenwi]

0 chance as recon has departed the storm and the satellite estimates are in from the agencies.

Outside chance of it happening at the 2 PM intermediate advisory if the storm were to strengthen steadily between now and then (recon will probably have time to squeeze in a pass before the advisory is due).

5 PM is the earliest time I would consider probable.

[canegrl04]

I think Chris becomes a hurricane by this afternoon

[brunota2003]

next recon flight departs at 1 PM

[x-y-no]

Unless it makes a really dramatic burst in the next couple of hours, I don't expect the upgrade until the afternoon. Right now, I'm feeling pretty confident we have a hurricane no later than 5pm.

[rockyman]

Chris went from 40 to 65 over past 24 hours...which is an increase of 1mph per hour...at that rate, Chris would need 10 more hours to become a hurricane

[cheezyWXguy]

it didnt steadily strengthen...it maintained 60 for the last 2 full advisories so Ill say that theres certainly a chance they could up it to 75mph but its more likely its gonna be 70 instead

[Cyclenall]

Maybe up to 60 Knots by the 11am but not hurricane strength. That's unless he rapidly strengthens all of a sudden.

[cheezyWXguy]

its only 10mph more

[Josephine96]

Plus I don't see any signs yet of an eye trying to form..

[cheezyWXguy]

Plus I don't see any signs yet of an eye trying to form..

it doesnt have to have an eye to be a hurricane...emily didnt start clearing out an eye until it was a cat 4(the 1st time)

[WindRunner]

0 chance as recon has departed the storm and the satellite estimates are in from the agencies.

Outside chance of it happening at the 2 PM intermediate advisory if the storm were to strengthen steadily between now and then (recon will probably have time to squeeze in a pass before the advisory is due).

5 PM is the earliest time I would consider probable.

My thoughts as well, though I have a feeling that recon will not be able to make a pass for the 2pm advisory, as that would really mean they need to make a pass by 1:30, which won't happen. And even if recon did get in there by that time and found a cane, they'd probably do another full adviosry for it.

[skysummit]

Plus I don't see any signs yet of an eye trying to form..

Read the disco....there are signs of an eye feature developing.

[kenl01]

Well of course it can

The question is actually will it be..? Honestly i think they may bump the winds up to 70 but 75 most likely not till tonight or early tomorrow..

thoughts and comments welcomed..

I hope not.

The good news is that water temps are not sufficient for anything more than a cat 1 at this time. The water that is fueling Chris right now is right around 80 degrees. Tropical systems need warm water to survive. While 80-degree water is warm, it isn't enough to support a strong hurricane.

[Josephine96]

Thank you Sky.. I didn't see that:)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Plus I don't see any signs yet of an eye trying to form..

Read the disco....there are signs of an eye feature developing.

From the disco:

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON POSITION AND WIND DATA THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATE CHRIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF CHRIS HAS IMRPOVED...
THIS HAS NOT TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...YET. A PASS
THROUGH THE CENTER OF CHRIS AROUND 0745Z REVEALED AN ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AND AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 62
KT. WHILE THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 2 MB FORM EARLIER FLIGHTS...THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL YIELD ONLY A 50-KT SURFACE WIND.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.

[sprink52]

In actual real time ...Chris is probably already a Hurricane.

[Downdraft]

I'm looking at a hurricane now on sat photos now IMHO