Where will Chris go?

#61 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:39 pm

LightningInTheEye wrote:Hey, KFDM Meteorologist, was that 18Z GFS computer model (which was "hinting" Miami area and then southern Texas) you were commenting on not that reliable? because the new forecast track from the NHC suggests nothing near a northerly track.

The model will get a better handle on it as more data is put into it. 18Z runs are not the best , no.

LaBreeze · #62 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:41 pm

Bailey1777, did your local met mention if the ULL was expected to actually move inland or just hang out on the coast or in the western GOM? A local met here mentioned that it could park itself in the GOM or keep moving into Texas - either way it would increase our chances of rainfall.

#63 Postby **Bailey1777** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:50 pm

He was not that informative but watching the forecast map it showed the ULL moving through and NW of the area.

HouTXmetro · #64 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:53 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:He was not that informative but watching the forecast map it showed the ULL moving through and NW of the area.

I just don't think mother nature would be the cruel to us. Dump a few inches of rain from a ULL to saturate the grounds, then follow up with a Hurricane. Nah, she ain't that cruel.

LaBreeze · #65 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:55 pm

Thanks Bailey, it would be to our advantage if the ULL hung out in the western GOM, but we'll have to wait and see.

#66 Postby **Bailey1777** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:56 pm

HouTX that was my thought exactly.

Galvestongirl · #67 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:59 pm

just don't think mother nature would be the cruel to us. Dump a few inches of rain from a ULL to saturate the grounds, then follow up with a Hurricane. Nah, she ain't that cruel.

yup.........it can happen....dont know if it was a ull or not, I was 18 at the time and didnt care........but, I do remember it raining alot just before alicia came in.....roads were flooded in some areas.

Regit · #68 Postby **Regit** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:03 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
Bailey1777 wrote:He was not that informative but watching the forecast map it showed the ULL moving through and NW of the area.

I just don't think mother nature would be the cruel to us. Dump a few inches of rain from a ULL to saturate the grounds, then follow up with a Hurricane. Nah, she ain't that cruel.

It happened to the Carolinas with Floyd. Places that had only TS winds had major damage due to falling trees.

Yankeegirl · #69 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:04 pm

Well I am going to have to take a guess and say that Chris will have an impact somewhere along the Gulf of Mexico.... Come on guys, its way to far out to even think about where it might or might not go... But I totally think its cool to see where everyone thinks it might go, although being in Texas and that seems to be where some think its going to go, isnt too cool.. lol.... Maybe I should go to the store now and get some batteries before the secret it out.. lol... :ggreen:

#70 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:06 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Well I am going to have to take a guess and say that Chris will have an impact somewhere along the Gulf of Mexico.... Come on guys, its way to far out to even think about where it might or might not go... But I totally think its cool to see where everyone thinks it might go, although being in Texas and that seems to be where some think its going to go, isnt too cool.. lol.... Maybe I should go to the store now and get some batteries before the secret it out.. lol...

it would take some ridge for it to track to Texas - looking at the longwave pattern this summer I would expect some weakness to pull it north before then...it is very early to say right now...I'm not sure.

#71 Postby **kranki** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:12 pm

All that I can say is that I gotta get to work and get a few things done in the next couple of days (if you notice where I live)!

gulfcoastdave · #72 Postby **gulfcoastdave** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:21 pm

besides loaction of where Chris may go , I wonder on how strong it will get. I guess we have to wait and see if it hits cuba or not. Guess we will have some good answers by weekend

#73 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:23 pm

HurricaneJim wrote:"However the ridge is expected to build in and extend far West into the GOM as time progresses. There aren't any troughs or other disturbances making it far enough South to make a dent in that ridge either."

Yup......

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

Yup Yup. The ridge is forecast to build over the SE.

caneman · #74 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:25 pm

For what it worth I'd be very surprised to see this make it all the way to Texas based on Climatology but heck looking at the last years, anything can happen.

Normandy · #75 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:26 pm

gulfcoastdave wrote:besides loaction of where Chris may go , I wonder on how strong it will get. I guess we have to wait and see if it hits cuba or not. Guess we will have some good answers by weekend

Doesn't matter, as long as Chris doesn't weaken, once he gets in the gulf (barring shear and other inhibiting factors) he'll strentghen a lot.

Extremeweatherguy · #76 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:28 pm

Normandy wrote:
gulfcoastdave wrote:besides loaction of where Chris may go , I wonder on how strong it will get. I guess we have to wait and see if it hits cuba or not. Guess we will have some good answers by weekend

Doesn't matter, as long as Chris doesn't weaken, once he gets in the gulf (barring shear and other inhibiting factors) he'll strentghen a lot.

Exactly. Even if Chris became a TD I would expect it to re-strengthen up to a TS/Hurricane in the Gulf.

Yankeegirl · #77 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

I agree on that too....

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #78 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:08 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Steve Lyons on TWC is talking about a more southerly track as well.
Steve Lyons pretty much just goes with what NHC says.

But the NHC didn't have the track he was suggesting. His was further south.

And about 40 minutes ago one of the on cams (I forget her name) said that Chris would dissipate on Saturday night. They cut to commercial very quickly too. Haha.

Johnny · #79 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:10 am

JB is singing...in the words of Glen Campbell..."Galveston, Oh Galveston."

Good song!!!!!!

By the way, I'll be in Galveston this Thursday through Sunday, possibly into Monday. I'm sure their will be lots of hoopla about Chris from the locals while I'm down there. Also I'm sure the local news stations will be along the seawall. If I make the news I'll give a big time shout out to the members over at Storm2k! :hoola:

Yankeegirl · #80 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:21 am

lol... make sure you go to the Home Depot or Lowes... Those places are going to be a mad house!!!

Where will Chris go?

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