NE Hurricane Could Cripple Economy (forecasters worried)

[zlaxier]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/07/ ... 7562.shtml

(CBS) This month, the nation's best hurricane experts met for the first time ever with nervous insurance industry reps about a storm lurking beyond the horizon.

"The risk is increasing and it's increasing every year," catastrophe risk analyst Karen Clark told CBS News correspondent Michelle Miller.

That storm a long overdue northeast hurricane which the latest computer models now predict could devastate the region and cripple the U.S. economy.

"It will be the largest financial disaster that this country has ever seen," Clark, the president and CEO of AIR Worldwide, said.

A direct hit on New York's Long Island by a Category 3 or higher hurricane would cost $100 billion.

But the same size storm spinning into central New Jersey would be catastrophic — raking New York and points north with its strongest winds. The result: $200 billion in damages and lost business.

"And much of that disruption will not be covered by insurance," Clark said.

Economic losses would be twice that of the 9-11 attacks, and three times larger than Hurricane Katrina. When it comes to a northeast hurricane, experts say forget what you know. They're much bigger than their southern cousins.

"A Category 3 storm could do a surge of more like a Category 4 or 5," said Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University. "So you could see 20 to 25 feet of water."

A major northeast hurricane is nearly three times more likely this year thanks to favorable weather conditions, including the position of the Bermuda High. Last year it pushed storms southwest. Now it's set to steer hurricanes up the East Coast.

"Northern hurricanes move two to three times faster than southern hurricanes, so they're gonna be here much sooner," Coastal Geologist Nicholas Coch told Miller. "So a hurricane that is off the coast of Charleston will be here in eight hours. That fast."

That's exactly what happened in 1938, when the hurricane known as the Long Island Express tore through the region. Hurricane winds charged as far north as Canada.

The difference today is that real estate values from Maryland to Maine are among the highest in the nation — with Manhattan's skyline in the bull's-eye.

"The air is going to be squeezed in those canyons. The water is going to be rise about the level of the highway and then it's going to hit the subterranean infrastructure," Coch said.

A severe winter storm in 1992 offered just a taste of what could happen. Stricter building codes like those Florida put in place after Hurricane Andrew could limit damage above ground. But only a handful of northeast communities have adopted them.

"Insurance companies are in the same state that New Yorker is in: an acute state of denial," Coch said.

Opinion is split on whether the insurance industry and the U.S. economy could withstand a $200 billion blow. Even if they did — the experts say it's likely the financial well-being of many Americans will be swept away by the storm.

[max]

Scary.

I can't imagine watching on CNN a Cat. 3 major hurricane of 130 mph racing toward New York City at 20 to 45 mph would do.

I won't be surprised to see the tops of some of the tall building start to fall down below because the winds will be amazing up there so high. Who knows how bad but bad.

I expect to see most windows of the tall buildings blown out with glass everywhere.

The flooding could be really bad depending on how it comes in with 10,000 + dead because no one is going to take the warning seriously and if they do there is just not enough time to get all of the people out.

New York City will look like it did in the movie A.I. with the water. Its possible.

[abryant.ma]

eeeeek. that's really scary.

[max]

eeeeek. that's really scary.

Yep lets hope it doesn't happen this year or anytime soon but I have great fear that this won't help any

I wonder how long it would take to rebuild the east coast and New York City?

[NewOrleans]

Haven't we had enough of the high gas prices? And we are talking about a hurricane hitting the NE?

Let another Maj. cat. 3 hurricane get into the GOM and everyone in this country will be paying at least $3.50/gal. gasoline. God only knows what people will be paying in the NE and the far west, like California. And this is just having a hurricane in the gulf, without hitting any of the areas Katrina and Rita hit.

[max]

How high do you think gas prices would of been if Hurricane Rita had hit where it was suppose to at first near Houston Texas ?

[hurricanetrack]

Hey- I did a video for Long Island back in 2002. You should check it out- I actually had some neat CG animation in it:

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/videogall ... dsurge.wmv

CNN also used some of my CG animation on their story about surge in NYC. It is also linked on the NHC website:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/su ... klyn.shtml

Who knows- this might come to pass one day.

[Derek Ortt]

it would be thousands of times better to have a cat 5 in the GOM than a cat 3 in NYC.

200 billion is probably on the low side when it comes to damages

[Jim Cantore]

a long overdue northeast hurricane

Here we go again with this overdue buisness

There is no such thing as overdue it happens when it happens

And when it happens, I dont want to imagine the aftermath, I know about surge prone areas, The Jersey shore is a disaster waiting to happen.

[wxmann_91]

God only knows what people will be paying in the NE and the far west, like California.

Actually our gas here isn't from the GOM, they just spike it up on purpose.

[conestogo_flood]

We can worry and worry and worry all we want, but you just got to realize it's going to happen eventually. There ain't nothing we can do, we just got to face the facts.

It's scary I know. I can remember before Katrina hit NOLA on the CNN they were talking about what 175 mph winds could do. Experts said sky scrapers could come down in the wind. Katrina might have been a sampler as to what to expect. The worst of our fears didn't happen, but yet they did. I think the biggest mistake personally would be to rebuild NOLA. Because, it's going to happen again. Rebuilding is my biggest fear, I know it's hard not to, but it's just going to happen again.

With NYC though... what a different story. There is no choice but to rebuild, and after we rebuild, we will rebuild again... eventually again. It doesn't happen that often there, so no one has a real idea what to expect, I mean who lives there. They wont evacuate, and they will pay far that. Then years will go by, we will rebuild, and again they wont evacuate, and they will again pay for that.

It's a continuous cycle of catastrophe. There is nothing we can do but be smart. We can move on, but the human toll is the problem. No matter how hard and long we prepare, we will never be ready. Especially with a bunch of stubborn East Coast residents.

I know I am going on a lot, but Houston was a catastrophe with Rita. Ain't no one is going to want to leave next time after what happened. So, Rita was a catastrophe on Houston, and the effects are still to be felt.

[robbielyn]

Whats really scary is that last year twc did a what if new orleans was hit by a cat 3 hurricane and what happened? Katrina. This year they did one on new york city, hope it doesn't come to fruition

[Jim Cantore]

We can worry and worry and worry all we want, but you just got to realize it's going to happen eventually. There ain't nothing we can do, we just got to face the facts.

Thank you

we cant stop it, we cant prevent it and I dont think we can fully prepare for it.

[oceancounty]

I don't even want to imagine the aftermath of a hurricane hitting us here on the Jersey Shore. I can tell you this, most people in this area are very complacent and think that it wont happen here. I have all of my emergency supplies ready in case it happens. Mother nature will strike when she wants and there is nothing we can do about it except being prepared. I am 2 miles in from the bay and at an elevation of 7 feet above sea level, it definately would be a disaster. I just wish there was a way to get the residents here better prepared.

[Jim Cantore]

I don't even want to imagine the aftermath of a hurricane hitting us here on the Jersey Shore. I can tell you this, most people in this area are very complacent and think that it wont happen here. I have all of my emergency supplies ready in case it happens. Mother nature will strike when she wants and there is nothing we can do about it except being prepared. I am 2 miles in from the bay and at an elevation of 7 feet above sea level, it definately would be a disaster. I just wish there was a way to get the residents here better prepared.

I go to Island Beach State Park and the surrounding area alot and believe me, thats not a good place for a Hurricane to hit.

[max]

Whats really scary is that last year twc did a what if new orleans was hit by a cat 3 hurricane and what happened? Katrina. This year they did one on new york city, hope it doesn't come to fruition

Actually on the It Could Happen Tomorrow show for New Orleans it was a Cat. 5 hurricane hitting New Orleans directly. I have watched it before.

They showed that the water would be three stories high and you could only see the top of the tall building sitting out of the very high flood waters!

I can't imagine this happening because it would be 10 if not 100 times worst than Hurricane Katrina and thats a hard thing to imagine.

[The_OD_42]

more "NYC HURRICANE!!!!" ay yi yi....

[f5]

Whats really scary is that last year twc did a what if new orleans was hit by a cat 3 hurricane and what happened? Katrina. This year they did one on new york city, hope it doesn't come to fruition

Actually on the It Could Happen Tomorrow show for New Orleans it was a Cat. 5 hurricane hitting New Orleans directly. I have watched it before.

They showed that the water would be three stories high and you could only see the top of the tall building sitting out of the very high flood waters!

I can't imagine this happening because it would be 10 if not 100 times worst than Hurricane Katrina and thats a hard thing to imagine.

Katrina could of been worst herself had she hit NO with those catastrophic 175 mph sustained winds she had over the central gulf

[max]

f5 yes and I can't imagine what would of happen if she would of kept the 175 mph sustain winds Cat. 5 strength as she made landfall even with the same landfall she made it would of still been worst.

Though if it would of been a direct hit on New Orleans it would of been horrible.

[f5]

there an old economic saying that says what happens in NYC so goes the world.if wall strret having a great day the rest of the world will react the same if its the opposite than you can expect the status quo if wall street is having a bad day.but if a hurricane was coming toward NYC wall street would pull its hair out