Where will Chris go?

[LightningInTheEye]

Let's use this thread to forecast the possible paths that Chris may take, based on our opinions and/or computer model trends.

[Aquawind]

Between Cuba and Florida into the GOM and then..anyones guess.. rough road to get there though.. Shear, Dry Air, Islands with mountains. Many have thread the needle before though.

[bucman1]

I ws just thinking the same thing.

do you see any features down the road that may bring it up the west coast of Florida??

[LaBreeze]

If Chris does enter the GOM, it will all depend on the ULL currently east of Florida that is expected to move west to the Texas area. If it parks itself over the western GOM it may steer Chris to the FL. panhandle area. If the ULL keeps moving west into Texas, it could put more of us in the possible path - from Louisiana to Florida. A wait and see situation indeed.

[Aquawind]

do you see any features down the road that may bring it up the west coast of Florida??

That would be a pretty sharp turn and I don't see anything turning it like that with such a Westerly path forecast now and would require the rare Charlie type Front again.. not likely.. I am hoping it takes a real beating over the islands..

[PTrackerLA]

I'm quite concerned this could be more of a western gulf threat with the strong ridge forecasted to be in place. Let's hope Cuba tears Chris up real good but if not . I couldn't imagine our state having to deal with another big storm this year .

[Stratusxpeye]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

These models must hate chris. Bc if that verified he would be no more. When should we expect verifiable model runs? I heard by wed morning model runs all the right data would be in the system to run decent model runs is that correct?

[Brent]

I don't buy this "west into Hispanola" stuff... the NHC track looks good.

[Aquawind]

I couldn't imagine our state having to deal with another big storm this year

Problem is that is going to be on your minds for years to come as the rebuilding occurs.. Yeah no offense to the people on the islands but if they can weaken it I thinks it's better for everyone.. A Hispaniola poof would be nice but looks a tad dreamy at this point.. Mudslides.. ugh.

[LaBreeze]

True PTrackerLA. It's been quite an ordeal recovering from Rita here in Vermilion Parish (not to mention the areas that were completely wiped off of the map in Cameron Parish). Please no Chris!

[PTrackerLA]

The models have been absolute crap so far with this system. I wish they'd flown the NOAA plane today.

[Aquawind]

I wish they'd flown the NOAA plane today.

Ditto.. Intensity is a problem for everyone..

[tgenius]

I think that NOAA is wishing they had sent the G IV in as well at this point.

[Cookiely]

The models have been absolute crap so far with this system. I wish they'd flown the NOAA plane today.

With the cost of fuel, maybe they are saving the money for a long season.

[Aquawind]

Looks like I am staying up for the 0Z run tonight.. They still have some much better data including initialization and obs.

[Rainband]

Herberts box

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I just spoke in great length with Joe Bastardi on the situation. Of course just way to early to say where it goes. But it sure looks like it will get in the GOM. It will all depend on the ridge to the north. The 18Z GFS which of course is a larger scale model doesn't really have it yet, although it's starting to show hints of it around Miami. We're both worried from SW Louisiana to Brownsville at this point. It will all depend on exactly how the upper high is positioned in the south next week.

[LaBreeze]

So you're thinking of more of a Texas hit KFDM? What about the possibility of the ULL hanging out in the western GOM? Wouldn't that block a westward progression of Chris? Just wondering on your thoughts.

[ROCK]

I just spoke in great length with Joe Bastardi on the situation. Of course just way to early to say where it goes. But it sure looks like it will get in the GOM. It will all depend on the ridge to the north. The 18Z GFS which of course is a larger scale model doesn't really have it yet, although it's starting to show hints of it around Miami. We're both worried from SW Louisiana to Brownsville at this point. It will all depend on exactly how the upper high is positioned in the south next week.

thank you for your input KF...I was wondering what JB had to say on this today......We definately need some model runs tonight....

[LightningInTheEye]

I just spoke in great length with Joe Bastardi on the situation. Of course just way to early to say where it goes. But it sure looks like it will get in the GOM. It will all depend on the ridge to the north. The 18Z GFS which of course is a larger scale model doesn't really have it yet, although it's starting to show hints of it around Miami. We're both worried from SW Louisiana to Brownsville at this point. It will all depend on exactly how the upper high is positioned in the south next week.

hmmm...The models were starting to think Florida Straits with an intensifying ridge to the north. Maybe those computer models are old as of now.