Special Advisory!! CHRIS 60 mph

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raindrops68
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#21 Postby raindrops68 » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:31 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:My feeling is that if it avoids burying itself in Haiti or Cuba we have a major problem on our hands for the gulf.

A little off topic but I'll ask the question: I heard from someone that New Orleans is being extra cautious this year and that any hurricane that enters the gulf that MIGHT pose a threat to the area evacuations will begin. Can anyone confirm this?

Can't confirm it but I would be the first to leave even if they didnt have an evacuation. Gonna take awhile to feel safe again after last year.
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#22 Postby vaffie » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:31 pm

It really gives one a bad feeling in the pit of one's stomach about this year's storms, to see the rate that this first Cape Verde one is growing.
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#23 Postby marcane_1973 » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:35 pm

The 5:00 update says the storm has only 45 mph winds. Which is it???
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#24 Postby WindRunner » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:36 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:The 5:00 update says the storm has only 45 mph winds. Which is it???


Check again . . . they just put out a 5:30pm special advisory, which raised the winds.
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#25 Postby MississippiHurricane » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:37 pm

I did NOT see this coming :eek: :eek:
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#26 Postby Toadstool » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:42 pm

Misshurricane wrote:I did NOT see this coming :eek: :eek:


Me neither... this hopefully will be a category 0.25... maybe 0.30... you know, fractions... not bad :)
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#27 Postby Noah » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:43 pm

Its moving fast too. Sunday it's supposed to be under florida as I see it with untrained eyes. Earlier I was not going to think about it much till sunday.
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#28 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:44 pm

Deep-fry the crow for me, I totally counted this thing out yesterday as you may recall.

-Andrew92
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#29 Postby Toadstool » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:44 pm

Noah wrote:Its moving fast too. Sunday it's supposed to be under florida as I see it with untrained eyes. Earlier I was not going to think about it much till sunday.


I agree... It looks like a weekend hit.
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#30 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:45 pm

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#31 Postby duris » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:45 pm

raindrops68 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:My feeling is that if it avoids burying itself in Haiti or Cuba we have a major problem on our hands for the gulf.

A little off topic but I'll ask the question: I heard from someone that New Orleans is being extra cautious this year and that any hurricane that enters the gulf that MIGHT pose a threat to the area evacuations will begin. Can anyone confirm this?

Can't confirm it but I would be the first to leave even if they didnt have an evacuation. Gonna take awhile to feel safe again after last year.


Considering how little of a plan New Orleans has, who knows? I can't even get an answer from my office about when we will trigger our disaster plan. Just know that we won't rely on pronouncements from the City any longer. I remember watching TV the Saturday before Katrina, and as of 3:15, the scroll across the bottom said NO still had not made a decision. Meanwhile, every other local governing body was at least recommending evacuation.

That being said, Nagin did pull the trigger quickly when Rita threatened. We were in town on a pass when Nagin revoked all the passes. Had to beg my way through one road block, lie my way through another and literally sneak through another to get back to our house to close it up as we had left the upstairs open to air out the water, mold, etc.
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#32 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:45 pm

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#33 Postby Toadstool » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:49 pm

duris wrote:
raindrops68 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:My feeling is that if it avoids burying itself in Haiti or Cuba we have a major problem on our hands for the gulf.

A little off topic but I'll ask the question: I heard from someone that New Orleans is being extra cautious this year and that any hurricane that enters the gulf that MIGHT pose a threat to the area evacuations will begin. Can anyone confirm this?

Can't confirm it but I would be the first to leave even if they didnt have an evacuation. Gonna take awhile to feel safe again after last year.


Considering how little of a plan New Orleans has, who knows? I can't even get an answer from my office about when we will trigger our disaster plan. Just know that we won't rely on pronouncements from the City any longer. I remember watching TV the Saturday before Katrina, and as of 3:15, the scroll across the bottom said NO still had not made a decision. Meanwhile, every other local governing body was at least recommending evacuation.

That being said, Nagin did pull the trigger quickly when Rita threatened. We were in town on a pass when Nagin revoked all the passes. Had to beg my way through one road block, lie my way through another and literally sneak through another to get back to our house to close it up as we had left the upstairs open to air out the water, mold, etc.


We all hope that disaster response is better this year than last! At the very least lessons hopefully were learned.
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#34 Postby duris » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:51 pm

Toadstool wrote:We all hope that disaster response is better this year than last! At the very least lessons hopefully were learned.


Call me jaded, but I have absolutely no confidence whatsoever in that. they've already said they won't do anything to force people out even if they announce a "mandatory" evacuation. They announced plans to use the assembly center in Baton Rouge for a shelter without talking to Baton Rouge's mayor. They announced plans to use Amtrak without an agreement with Amtrak. Supposedly they do have buses this time.
Last edited by duris on Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#35 Postby TSmith274 » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:53 pm

Believe me, New Orleans will not hesitate to call evacuations. I do know that any sustained winds at or above 45mph will trigger the evacuation of all FEMA trailers. Even if this storm makes its way to Texas, we'll have some evacuations here.
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#36 Postby Toadstool » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:55 pm

duris wrote:
Toadstool wrote:We all hope that disaster response is better this year than last! At the very least lessons hopefully were learned.


Call me jaded, but I have absolutely no confidence whatsoever in that. they've already said they won't do anything to get people out even if they announce a "mandatory" evacuation. They announced plans to use the assembly center in Baton Rouge for a shelter without talking to Baton Rouge's mayor. They announced plans to use Amtrak without an agreement with Amtrak. Supposedly they do have buses this time.


Well sadly I agree with you on that... in the past year it seems they have forgotten Katrina... I just hope the gulf coast has a smooth calm season in 2006.
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#37 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:58 pm

Nailed this one. I just didn't see enough shear there to keep it from popping. That said, the thing now is to try and get a handle on its track and with the Recon info. the models should give us a better handle come tonight and early tomorrow. But that track is very suspect in my mind.
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#38 Postby Toadstool » Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:59 pm

TSmith274 wrote:Believe me, New Orleans will not hesitate to call evacuations. I do know that any sustained winds at or above 45mph will trigger the evacuation of all FEMA trailers. Even if this storm makes its way to Texas, we'll have some evacuations here.


They may sound the alarms, but that doesn't mean people have the means to evactuate, just run around in circles. Hopefully there's a better plan this time!
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#39 Postby gulfcoastdave » Tue Aug 01, 2006 5:06 pm

What is the guess at winds in the 3-5 day period...?


Next thing , remember the cone will change over time left to the left and right. We just need to watch and plan.

I will be away from the gulfcoast for a few days........I just hope I do not come back home to have to board up.
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#40 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 01, 2006 5:21 pm

Special advisory for a small bump like that? I'd only issue those when it changes categories abruptly...
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