086
WTNT63 KNHC 012106
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006
BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
Special Advisory!! CHRIS 60 mph
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Special Advisory!! CHRIS 60 mph
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PTrackerLA
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WindRunner
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HurricaneHunter914
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AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! 
I liked that we have Chris, but I don't want a monster!
I liked that we have Chris, but I don't want a monster!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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max
>>Shakes head at Franklins forecast last night...
He put in appropriate caveats that the storm could dissipate. Obviously the globals are all still doing this (must not have a good handle on him, or they could be right). But all over the world wide web (including prominant weather sites) and television, numerous forecasters have bit the big one on Chris as a non-entity. He may end up being such before it's all said and done, but for now, he's a named storm with a special update required. That's a long way from prognostications of "development is not expected through blah" or "this is not going to develop." There was a thread on S2K the other day where I cautioned against never saying never (even for pros) because we just don't know when and where things are going to pop up (well I know, but especially when they don't appear to be anything extraordinary). The coup de grace would be for West Gulf/Texas development later this week. Then not only would the two systems that weren't going to develop actually develop, but then Jeff Masters and his "below average Gulf August" would at least prove to be suspect.
JMO
Steve
He put in appropriate caveats that the storm could dissipate. Obviously the globals are all still doing this (must not have a good handle on him, or they could be right). But all over the world wide web (including prominant weather sites) and television, numerous forecasters have bit the big one on Chris as a non-entity. He may end up being such before it's all said and done, but for now, he's a named storm with a special update required. That's a long way from prognostications of "development is not expected through blah" or "this is not going to develop." There was a thread on S2K the other day where I cautioned against never saying never (even for pros) because we just don't know when and where things are going to pop up (well I know, but especially when they don't appear to be anything extraordinary). The coup de grace would be for West Gulf/Texas development later this week. Then not only would the two systems that weren't going to develop actually develop, but then Jeff Masters and his "below average Gulf August" would at least prove to be suspect.
JMO
Steve
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ConvergenceZone
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I'll be the first one to admit, I"m already eating crow on this one...I looked at the maps last night and saw the shear and saw the dry air and agreeed with the national weather service. I just didn't see this getting past 45 mph. Obviously I guess I just have to face the facts that these storms are going to do what THEY want to do.
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PTrackerLA
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My feeling is that if it avoids burying itself in Haiti or Cuba we have a major problem on our hands for the gulf.
A little off topic but I'll ask the question: I heard from someone that New Orleans is being extra cautious this year and that any hurricane that enters the gulf that MIGHT pose a threat to the area evacuations will begin. Can anyone confirm this?
A little off topic but I'll ask the question: I heard from someone that New Orleans is being extra cautious this year and that any hurricane that enters the gulf that MIGHT pose a threat to the area evacuations will begin. Can anyone confirm this?
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all_we_know_is_FALLING
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max
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Downdraft
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I have no problem with Franklin's prior forecast. The fact that the NHC can reverse itself so quickly when necessary is actually a plus for all concerned. Admit it or not mets like Franklin have forgotten more about tropical systems than most in here will ever know and, that includes a few of our pros with less than sterling records. A lot of people got egg on their face from Chris. I guess they didn't get enough from Beryl. I've said it before this is not a "beat the NHC" contest with the winner receiving their very own CAT 5 hurricane to play in. It's fine to have an opinion, even better to make a forecast with some rationale to it, but attacking individual forecasters, including JB, does not make some on here more respected in fact, the exact opposite is true. ....Nuff said!
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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Yes, but can he sustain it? I'm not expecting a hurricane tonight...it might happen tomorrow, but at the same time, we might have a struggling minimal TS tomorrow. Sometimes these things get ahead of themselves and the environment collapses from underneath them...kind of like Alberto earlier this year. But Chris seems determined to at least make a bigger name for himself than in 2000.
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WindRunner
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