Tropical Storm Chris

[cycloneye]

What does the yellow line represent cycloneye?

That represents the A98E model which is not one of the best to follow.The best are the BAMM and the BAMD the dark green and like green ones.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011859
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 14 KNHC
1847. 1730N 06034W 00301 5007 186 049 196 196 050 00304 0000000000
1848 1732N 06034W 00305 5010 181 051 200 200 053 00305 0000000000
1848. 1733N 06036W 00297 5019 185 048 200 200 049 00289 0000000000
1849 1735N 06037W 00300 5027 185 048 204 204 049 00284 0000000000
1849. 1736N 06039W 00304 5031 184 037 220 220 047 00284 0000000000
1850 1737N 06040W 00296 5035 216 014 240 240 018 00271 0000000000
1850. 1737N 06041W 00301 5037 235 009 244 244 011 00274 0000000000
1851 1738N 06043W 00301 5038 257 004 246 246 006 00273 0000000000
1851. 1739N 06044W 00302 5038 056 007 242 242 012 00274 0000000000
1852 1740N 06045W 00300 5038 070 018 242 242 021 00273 0000000000
1852. 1741N 06047W 00300 5038 077 026 246 246 029 00273 0000000000
1853 1742N 06048W 00299 5034 080 029 242 242 029 00276 0000000000
1853. 1744N 06049W 00300 5030 084 031 242 242 032 00280 0000000000
1854 1745N 06050W 00302 5025 087 031 236 236 032 00287 0000000000
1854. 1746N 06052W 00300 5020 080 030 230 230 030 00291 0000000000
1855 1747N 06053W 00300 5017 067 027 234 234 027 00293 0000000000
1855. 1748N 06054W 00301 5014 059 026 230 230 026 00297 0000000000
1856 1750N 06055W 00301 5010 060 024 232 232 024 00301 0000000000
1856. 1751N 06056W 00300 5008 059 021 232 232 022 00303 0000000000
1857 1752N 06058W 00301 5005 059 020 232 232 021 00307 0000000000

53 knots FL (42.4 knots at the surface)

[storms in NC]

for what its worth, the data T number from TAFB has decreased to 2.0/2.5

From what I have seen today that is about right. But it will go back up

[MiamiensisWx]

53KT just found at flight levels now on the east side (I think).

[cycloneye]

WindRunner,what is the flight pattern now.Which quadrant they will pass next?

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah ... I think it's pretty safe to say we have a tropical storm here at about 40MPH respectively.

[brunota2003]

51 knots sustained, using .75 gets 38.25 knots at surface...using .8 its equal to 40.8 knots at surface

[x-y-no]

Interestingly, the surface winds are higher than many FL winds.

I've been noting the same thing. Twice they've reported 45 knots surface, but not in the same locations as we've seen the 46 and 47 knot flight level winds.

[WindRunner]

I'm leaving till about 4pm, when you can expect a fully update map. Sorry I don't have time to answer your question Luis, hope someone else can.

[curtadams]

[img]
18:00z BAM Model graphic.Those who live in the GOM will not like that yellow line.

Probably not, but it's a stat-climo model. The only "real" model in that bunch is the GFDL. Nogaps and UKMET are still having trouble with the system, it seems. The BAMs are close to the GFDL and they've done well with this system so far. So IMO the better models indicate a more southerly track through the greater Antilles. The only exception is the NHC "model", which, to be fair, is the best.

[x-y-no]

53KT just found at flight levels now on the east side (I think).

Interesting. I really thought Chris was a bit weaker than this. I expected them to have a fairly hard time finding legitimate TS force surface winds ... but it looks like they're pretty widespread.

[Swimdude]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 011757
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS
AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[MiamiensisWx]

Can a link be posted to the live feeding reports/observations/dropsondes, please?

[brunota2003]

from the NRL, 1800Z update: 03LCHRIS.35kts-1008mb-176N-607W

[LAwxrgal]

Okay, gotcha. Thanks.

[jusforsean]

:eek: Holy Crap!

i second that!!!!!!!!!

[ericinmia]

the nhc98e is a statistcal model that takes only into account what storms have done in the past that were in a similar position.

the Dark green BAMD is for a deep system (ie... stronger))

BAMM is for a medium intensity TS or so...

BAMS is for a shallow system (ie a depression/very weak TS)

GFDL is a dynamic model that focuses the guidance RIGHT over the storm to imporve details. It uses the GFS global model as a background to initialize conditions.

Nogaps (navy), Ukmet (UK), and CMC (canadian) are all Global models also...


just a quick little fyi on some big models...

[SouthFloridawx]

Has anyone been looking at the Satellite lately? I mean Chris is looking good. A burst of convection right over the LLC!

[cheezyWXguy]

wow...no that looks like at least 50 mph

[SouthFloridawx]

Can a link be posted to the live feeding reports/observations/dropsondes, please?

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm