Tropical Storm Chris

[Aric Dunn]

this is the format to usename,desc,latitude,longitude,color
8 mph / 18:53:30,18:53:30Z,34.4166666666667,-77.7833333333333,blue
9 mph / 18:54:00,18:54:00Z,34.4,-77.8,blue
16 mph / 18:54:30,18:54:30Z,34.3833333333333,-77.8333333333333,blue
16 mph / 18:55:00,18:55:00Z,34.3666666666667,-77.8666666666667,blue
17 mph / 18:55:30,18:55:30Z,34.35,-77.8833333333333,blue
18 mph / 18:56:00,18:56:00Z,34.3166666666667,-77.9166666666667,blue
17 mph / 18:56:30,18:56:30Z,34.3,-77.95,blue
14 mph / 18:57:00,18:57:00Z,34.2833333333333,-77.9666666666667,blue
15 mph / 18:57:30,18:57:30Z,34.2666666666667,-78,white
16 mph / 18:58:00,18:58:00Z,34.25,-78.0333333333333,white
15 mph / 18:58:30,18:58:30Z,34.2333333333333,-78.05,white
15 mph / 18:59:00,18:59:00Z,34.2166666666667,-78.0833333333333,white
17 mph / 18:59:30,18:59:30Z,34.2,-78.1166666666667,white
15 mph / 19:00:00,19:00:00Z,34.1833333333333,-78.1333333333333,white
21 mph / 19:00:30,19:00:30Z,34.1666666666667,-78.1666666666667,white
21 mph / 19:01:00,19:01:00Z,34.15,-78.2,white
15 mph / 19:01:30,19:01:30Z,34.1333333333333,-78.2166666666667,white
16 mph / 19:02:00,19:02:00Z,34.1166666666667,-78.25,white
21 mph / 19:02:30,19:02:30Z,34.1,-78.2833333333333,white
20 mph / 19:03:00,19:03:00Z,34.0833333333333,-78.3,white

But this is the data given AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 07 KNHC
1737. 1830N 06248W 01488 0118 048 019 166 148 021 01641 0000000000
1738 1831N 06246W 01484 0118 055 020 162 158 021 01637 0000000000
1738. 1832N 06244W 01485 0117 058 022 166 154 023 01637 0000000000
1739 1833N 06242W 01486 0117 060 024 164 158 024 01638 0000000000
1739. 1834N 06241W 01489 0118 060 024 160 160 024 01642 0000000000
1740 1835N 06239W 01484 0117 064 023 166 146 023 01636 0000000000
1740. 1836N 06237W 01486 0117 063 023 162 154 023 01637 0000000000
1741 1837N 06235W 01486 0117 063 022 166 150 023 01638 0000000000
1741. 1838N 06233W 01486 0117 065 023 166 148 025 01637 0000000000
1742 1839N 06231W 01486 0116 062 025 166 148 026 01637 0000000000
1742. 1840N 06229W 01487 0117 059 025 164 156 027 01639 0000000000
1743 1841N 06227W 01489 0116 053 025 162 162 028 01639 0000000000
1743. 1842N 06225W 01483 0116 058 022 168 146 023 01634 0000000000
1744 1843N 06223W 01486 0117 053 023 170 140 023 01638 0000000000
1744. 1844N 06221W 01487 0117 053 023 170 130 023 01639 0000000000
1745 1845N 06220W 01485 0116 055 022 170 126 022 01636 0000000000
1745. 1846N 06218W 01486 0116 057 022 166 134 023 01637 0000000000
1746 1847N 06216W 01486 0116 059 022 166 136 022 01637 0000000000
1746. 1848N 06214W 01486 0116 066 025 172 140 026 01637 0000000000
1747 1849N 06212W 01488 0118 074 024 176 134 025 01640 0000000000

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS
AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[storms in NC]

It would be OK to discuss what's going to happen beyond 5 days if anyone had any skill whatsoever to do so...the NHC admits that it has no skill beyond 5 days...and I'd be surprised if anyone on this board had more skill than the NHC....

If we talk about the margin of error for 6, 7, 8, and 9 day forecasts, then rule out only those areas outside of those extremely large margins of error, then I am OK with discussing it...but to say "Texas" or "Florida" or "North Carolina" at this point is just utter speculation, because all of those areas would fall within a projected cone of uncertaintly based on NHC's current projected track.

Where did NC come from? All I have read is Fla and the GOM. I am here in NC and I can't say where passed two day from now. I am looking at the Islands. Who eles is?

[Lowpressure]

I think they will find winds that support 45 mph at the surface.

I am with you scorpion, 45 at the surface.

[gtalum]

This thing's a weak TS in the islands. It's a bit too early to panic in the US.

[Normandy]

Wilma intensified over the Gulf, however. And your point is true, but having hot water and a high heat content is crucial as well (which the Gulf has)

Yes, Wilma REintensified over the Gulf. Remember, the storm had just hit Cozumel as a strong 4 and just sat there. It weakened to a 2 I believe and reintensified to a 3 before hitting SW FL.

I dont think Wilma was a Cat2 when it came off the Yucatan.

[rockyman]

Hmm, I know this is REALLY hard to predict, but IF (and I know this is hypothetical) Chris makes it into the GOM where would landfall be most likely? My sister is going to Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday and is worried it will ruin her trip.

While I can't even attempt to guess on eventual landfall...I'd say that IF Gulf Shores were to be affected, it would be sometime around the middle of next week (I'm sorry!)...barring any stalls along the way.

[Scorpion]

Technically, it was a very strong 1, but the NHC kept it as a 2 as it was very close.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 011757
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS
AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Roxy]

man this excel Recon Decoder is awesome!!

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011759
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 08 KNHC
1747. 1848N 06210W 01481 0117 064 021 172 148 022 01634 0000000000
1748 1846N 06208W 01195 0105 045 017 180 164 018 01332 0000000000
1748. 1844N 06207W 00869 0089 041 019 202 180 019 00980 0000000000
1749 1842N 06206W 00512 0060 041 021 222 212 021 00591 0000000000
1749. 1841N 06205W 00287 0048 041 019 240 230 020 00345 0000000000
1750 1841N 06203W 00260 0045 043 018 246 230 018 00316 0000000000
1750. 1839N 06201W 00259 0046 041 019 246 226 020 00316 0000000000
1751 1838N 06159W 00256 0045 041 019 246 228 019 00311 0000000000
1751. 1836N 06158W 00257 0044 041 020 246 228 020 00312 0000000000
1752 1835N 06156W 00258 0043 039 021 246 228 021 00312 0000000000
1752. 1833N 06155W 00258 0042 037 020 246 246 021 00310 0000000100
1753 1832N 06153W 00258 0041 035 020 246 246 020 00310 0000000100
1753. 1831N 06152W 00259 0041 036 020 246 246 020 00310 0000000100
1754 1829N 06150W 00258 0040 032 019 246 246 020 00309 0000000100
1754. 1828N 06149W 00259 0040 035 020 244 244 020 00309 0000000000
1755 1827N 06147W 00259 0039 033 021 246 230 021 00308 0000000000
1755. 1825N 06146W 00259 0038 032 022 244 234 022 00308 0000000000
1756 1824N 06144W 00259 0037 039 022 244 224 025 00307 0000000000
1756. 1822N 06143W 00258 0036 032 023 246 224 024 00304 0000000000
1757 1821N 06142W 00285 0037 033 023 244 220 024 00332 0000000000

Heading into the NW quad

EDIT: Also descending to only about 300m

[Trugunzn]

it was a cat 2 when it came off the yucatan

[Aric Dunn]

well ty but I cant get the data to plot right. anyone know why

[cheezyWXguy]

she was a cat 2...check the records...i believe it was 100mph

[Normandy]

I think Chris might begin the strengthen slightly, because that ULL to its east looks like it might be starting to ventilate the system maybe....

EDIT:
The NHC might have kept it as a 100 mph 2, but imo I dont think it was when it exited the Yucatan, Wilma looks horrible as it came off the coast. But even still, 100 to 130 its a good bit of strengthening.

[Trugunzn]

current shear, also check out the GOM:

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 011801
97779 17564 30184 61700 02600 04022 24228 /0016
40325
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 03

Surface: 1016mb; wind NNE at 25 knots

[Lowpressure]

it is mighty breezy out there 20+ kts at flight level not even close to storm yet.
Pressure gradient might be an issue here.

[WindRunner]

[Scorpion]

Wow, this better not get into the Gulf or all bets are off.