Tropical Storm Chris

[Scorpion]

I think they will find winds that support 45 mph at the surface.

[Normandy]

Just becuase Katrina and Rita exploded into major hurricanes in the Gulf,doesn't mean every other storm is going to do the same.And there is also a chance that this may NOT go into the Gulf.Let's just wait and see what happens over the next day or so before we start this whole Gulf coast doomsday thing.

Are you forgetting Wilma, Charley, Dennis, and so on and so on?
Under ideal conditions, if a TS or minimal hurricane gets into the Gulf during hurricane season, it probably will intensify substantially....Thats not -removed- its just reality.

[Scorpion]

How does the shear look over the GOM in 5 days?

[WindRunner]

Heading up for a NW-SE pass it appears.

[cycloneye]

WindRunner,I see that aparently they will make the first pass from NW to SE.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Well Wilma didn't explode in the Gulf, Wilma was just south of the Caymens when it exploded. The area doesn't matter nearly as much as the conditions.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Advisorie shortly.

[Normandy]

Wilma intensified over the Gulf, however. And your point is true, but having hot water and a high heat content is crucial as well (which the Gulf has)

[rockyman]

It would be OK to discuss what's going to happen beyond 5 days if anyone had any skill whatsoever to do so...the NHC admits that it has no skill beyond 5 days...and I'd be surprised if anyone on this board had more skill than the NHC....

If we talk about the margin of error for 6, 7, 8, and 9 day forecasts, then rule out only those areas outside of those extremely large margins of error, then I am OK with discussing it...but to say "Texas" or "Florida" or "North Carolina" at this point is just utter speculation, because all of those areas would fall within a projected cone of uncertaintly based on NHC's current projected track.

[Aric Dunn]

how do you paste the data into recon excel.. i cant get it to work the minobs data does not work right with the google

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011749
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 07 KNHC
1737. 1830N 06248W 01488 0118 048 019 166 148 021 01641 0000000000
1738 1831N 06246W 01484 0118 055 020 162 158 021 01637 0000000000
1738. 1832N 06244W 01485 0117 058 022 166 154 023 01637 0000000000
1739 1833N 06242W 01486 0117 060 024 164 158 024 01638 0000000000
1739. 1834N 06241W 01489 0118 060 024 160 160 024 01642 0000000000
1740 1835N 06239W 01484 0117 064 023 166 146 023 01636 0000000000
1740. 1836N 06237W 01486 0117 063 023 162 154 023 01637 0000000000
1741 1837N 06235W 01486 0117 063 022 166 150 023 01638 0000000000
1741. 1838N 06233W 01486 0117 065 023 166 148 025 01637 0000000000
1742 1839N 06231W 01486 0116 062 025 166 148 026 01637 0000000000
1742. 1840N 06229W 01487 0117 059 025 164 156 027 01639 0000000000
1743 1841N 06227W 01489 0116 053 025 162 162 028 01639 0000000000
1743. 1842N 06225W 01483 0116 058 022 168 146 023 01634 0000000000
1744 1843N 06223W 01486 0117 053 023 170 140 023 01638 0000000000
1744. 1844N 06221W 01487 0117 053 023 170 130 023 01639 0000000000
1745 1845N 06220W 01485 0116 055 022 170 126 022 01636 0000000000
1745. 1846N 06218W 01486 0116 057 022 166 134 023 01637 0000000000
1746 1847N 06216W 01486 0116 059 022 166 136 022 01637 0000000000
1746. 1848N 06214W 01486 0116 066 025 172 140 026 01637 0000000000
1747 1849N 06212W 01488 0118 074 024 176 134 025 01640 0000000000

[WindRunner]

Yes, it appears that they are heading up in that direction. I would think that we should have a center fix within a half-hour, but that's just some rough estimating.

[Aric Dunn]

SXXX50 KNHC 011749
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 07 KNHC
1737. 1830N 06248W 01488 0118 048 019 166 148 021 01641 0000000000
1738 1831N 06246W 01484 0118 055 020 162 158 021 01637 0000000000
1738. 1832N 06244W 01485 0117 058 022 166 154 023 01637 0000000000
1739 1833N 06242W 01486 0117 060 024 164 158 024 01638 0000000000
1739. 1834N 06241W 01489 0118 060 024 160 160 024 01642 0000000000
1740 1835N 06239W 01484 0117 064 023 166 146 023 01636 0000000000
1740. 1836N 06237W 01486 0117 063 023 162 154 023 01637 0000000000
1741 1837N 06235W 01486 0117 063 022 166 150 023 01638 0000000000
1741. 1838N 06233W 01486 0117 065 023 166 148 025 01637 0000000000
1742 1839N 06231W 01486 0116 062 025 166 148 026 01637 0000000000
1742. 1840N 06229W 01487 0117 059 025 164 156 027 01639 0000000000
1743 1841N 06227W 01489 0116 053 025 162 162 028 01639 0000000000
1743. 1842N 06225W 01483 0116 058 022 168 146 023 01634 0000000000
1744 1843N 06223W 01486 0117 053 023 170 140 023 01638 0000000000
1744. 1844N 06221W 01487 0117 053 023 170 130 023 01639 0000000000
1745 1845N 06220W 01485 0116 055 022 170 126 022 01636 0000000000
1745. 1846N 06218W 01486 0116 057 022 166 134 023 01637 0000000000
1746 1847N 06216W 01486 0116 059 022 166 136 022 01637 0000000000
1746. 1848N 06214W 01486 0116 066 025 172 140 026 01637 0000000000
1747 1849N 06212W 01488 0118 074 024 176 134 025 01640 0000000000

I have been trying using just that same data but it wont work

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 011751
97779 17454 30188 62300 14900 06022 17132 /2572
40320
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 02

Surface: wind NNE 20 knots

[LAwxrgal]

Wilma intensified over the Gulf, however. And your point is true, but having hot water and a high heat content is crucial as well (which the Gulf has)

Yes, Wilma REintensified over the Gulf. Remember, the storm had just hit Cozumel as a strong 4 and just sat there. It weakened to a 2 I believe and reintensified to a 3 before hitting SW FL.

[cycloneye]

Aric Dunn,please post any comments at the recon discussion thread.Let's have this one clean of comments to let the data flow in.

[beachbum_al]

Hmm, I know this is REALLY hard to predict, but IF (and I know this is hypothetical) Chris makes it into the GOM where would landfall be most likely? My sister is going to Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday and is worried it will ruin her trip.

Well if it does come this way just tell your sister she is welcome to crash at my house if she doesn't mind three little girls running around, one big lab who thinks he is a human, and my husband. I live just northwest of Gulf Shores near Fairhope. She would be safe here.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric Dunn,please post any comments at the recon discussion thread.Let's have this one clean of comments to let the data flow in.

figured it was a simple request ok then

[StormScanWx]

Where is the recon flying out of?

[Aric Dunn]

Umm ok i cant get the data to work with the recon excel .. it wont crate an image because it says the data is not valid
anyone know how to fix it