Tropical Storm Chris

[Blown Away]

Are the models showing a more W and S path anticipating a very weak/ dissipating sytem?? If Chris were to develop more than expected would it move more W and N. The NHC 5 day puts the center near Andros, after that, would a weaker system tend to go more W & S and a stornger system go more W &N??

[El Nino]

Just becuase Katrina and Rita exploded into major hurricanes in the Gulf,doesn't mean every other storm is going to do the same.And there is also a chance that this may NOT go into the Gulf.Let's just wait and see what happens over the next day or so before we start this whole Gulf coast doomsday thing.

Agree, but everyone in this board was shocked by the High heat Content in GOM some days ago. I think SST is around 30°, or even more.
So, it won't be necessary a Katrina or a Rita, but it could be a cat2-3 storm ...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Hmm, I know this is REALLY hard to predict, but IF (and I know this is hypothetical) Chris makes it into the GOM where would landfall be most likely? My sister is going to Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday and is worried it will ruin her trip.

[gtalum]

Agree, but everyone in this board was shocked by the High heat Content in GOM some days ago. I think SST is around 30°, or even more.
So, it won't be necessary a Katrina or a Rita, but it could be a cat2-3 storm ...

SST's are only one component of tropical system development. It's not the whole story.

[Noles2006]

all we know... I don't think there is a "most likely" landfall at the moment.

wayyyyyyyy too far out.

[dwg71]

Hmm, I know this is REALLY hard to predict, but IF (and I know this is hypothetical) Chris makes it into the GOM where would landfall be most likely? My sister is going to Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday and is worried it will ruin her trip.

Anywhere from Miami To Brownsville or MEX. its way too early to tell.

[x-y-no]

Are the models showing a more W and S path anticipating a very weak/ dissipating sytem?? If Chris were to develop more than expected would it move more W and N. The NHC 5 day puts the center near Andros, after that, would a weaker system tend to go more W & S and a stornger system go more W &N??

No, because ridging at the higher levels is forecast to be pretty strong north of the system. So a deeper storm would probably track a little left of where a shallower system would.

[SWFLA_CANE]

The storm is still five days from the South portion of Florida and a lot can happen between now and then. The storm could get ripped by shear or it could take a more southern route and go right over the mountains in Hispanolia and Cuba which would most likely tear it apart. Let the next few days play out and see if it is still a storm before worrying about a possible path into the Gulf...Just my two cents.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 011727
97779 17134 30177 64400 14900 99005 18102 /2580
40410
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 01

Flying at 850mb since they're close...surface wind is NE at 10 knots

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011729
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 05 KNHC
1717. 1749N 06408W 01486 0123 128 007 170 124 007 01644 0000000000
1718 1750N 06406W 01486 0123 115 008 166 130 008 01643 0000000000
1718. 1751N 06403W 01486 0123 113 009 166 136 010 01644 0000000000
1719 1752N 06401W 01486 0124 117 009 166 142 010 01645 0000000000
1719. 1753N 06359W 01486 0124 123 008 166 146 008 01645 0000000000
1720 1754N 06357W 01486 0124 116 008 166 148 009 01645 0000000000
1720. 1755N 06355W 01486 0124 116 008 166 146 008 01644 0000000000
1721 1756N 06353W 01486 0125 113 007 162 148 008 01646 0000000000
1721. 1757N 06351W 01486 0125 105 008 164 146 008 01645 0000000000
1722 1759N 06349W 01486 0124 103 008 166 142 008 01645 0000000000
1722. 1800N 06347W 01486 0124 096 007 164 142 008 01645 0000000000
1723 1801N 06345W 01485 0124 087 008 160 152 008 01645 0000000000
1723. 1802N 06343W 01486 0124 085 008 162 152 008 01645 0000000000
1724 1803N 06341W 01486 0124 087 007 166 148 008 01644 0000000000
1724. 1804N 06339W 01485 0124 080 008 166 150 009 01645 0000000000
1725 1805N 06337W 01485 0123 074 009 164 148 009 01644 0000000000
1725. 1806N 06335W 01486 0123 070 008 164 146 008 01644 0000000000
1726 1807N 06333W 01485 0122 069 009 164 146 010 01642 0000000000
1726. 1808N 06331W 01487 0123 065 010 162 150 010 01645 0000000000
1727 1809N 06329W 01485 0124 070 010 164 148 011 01644 0000000000

[Nimbus]

The convection has been converging on the NHC forecast position. Probably be another convection burst over the LLC later today. Lots of scenarios for track. It could ride up the major islands and get torn up or catch up with the ULL to its west and get sheared and steered north. The NHC forecast that has the storm going north of 20 over PR then shooting through the Florida straits would really suck.

[WindRunner]

[Opal storm]

The storm is still five days from the South portion of Florida and a lot can happen between now and then. The storm could get ripped by shear or it could take a more southern route and go right over the mountains in Hispanolia and Cuba which would most likely tear it apart. Let the next few days play out and see if it is still a storm before worrying about a possible path into the Gulf...Just my two cents.

Thank you!Yes a LOT can happen in five days,and the models/track will probably shift a 100 times before this even gets close to the Gulf.And like you said,it may get torn apart before it even gets that far.

[LAwxrgal]

We'll probably have a better handle on the situation over the weekend. Way too soon to tell anything at this point.

[HouTXmetro]

Well, no need to wait. That's what this board is for, to discuss what is happening and what might happen down the road.

[Trugunzn]

starting to refire around center.

[WindRunner]

Discuss all the "ooooh"s and "shoot!"s here, along with any other recon-related thoughts. It's going to be a revealing flight for sure.

[storms in NC]

I don't think it will go over Hispanolia. I think and JMO that it will stay east of most of the Islands. Now it may come very very near PR. But from there I have to wait and see what happens. Take it a few days at a time here.

[Trugunzn]

what do u think the strongest winds theyll find?

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011739
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 06 KNHC
1727. 1810N 06327W 01485 0123 069 012 162 154 012 01644 0000000000
1728 1811N 06325W 01486 0123 071 013 166 144 013 01644 0000000000
1728. 1812N 06323W 01484 0122 066 016 168 130 016 01641 0000000000
1729 1813N 06321W 01488 0122 062 015 170 130 016 01644 0000000000
1729. 1814N 06319W 01486 0121 060 015 170 132 015 01642 0000000000
1730 1815N 06317W 01484 0121 057 015 170 134 016 01640 0000000000
1730. 1816N 06315W 01487 0119 058 016 170 132 017 01641 0000000000
1731 1817N 06313W 01486 0122 058 016 170 134 017 01643 0000000000
1731. 1818N 06311W 01487 0121 057 015 168 136 016 01643 0000000000
1732 1819N 06309W 01486 0120 053 016 170 136 016 01640 0000000000
1732. 1820N 06308W 01485 0120 054 016 170 138 016 01640 0000000000
1733 1821N 06306W 01487 0121 057 017 168 140 018 01643 0000000000
1733. 1822N 06304W 01485 0120 059 019 168 142 019 01641 0000000000
1734 1823N 06302W 01486 0120 058 020 168 144 020 01640 0000000000
1734. 1824N 06300W 01486 0119 056 020 166 148 021 01640 0000000000
1735 1825N 06258W 01486 0119 053 019 166 146 019 01640 0000000000
1735. 1826N 06256W 01486 0120 050 018 166 144 019 01641 0000000000
1736 1827N 06254W 01485 0119 055 019 170 138 020 01639 0000000000
1736. 1828N 06252W 01486 0118 054 019 166 148 020 01639 0000000000
1737 1829N 06250W 01485 0118 051 018 166 148 019 01638 0000000000