Tropical Storm Chris

[curtadams]

You have a link to the [Martinique] radar?

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html
Hit "Animation" for animation.

[HouTXmetro]

The ULL inducing shear to the rear of Chris is not making much progress West as opposed the the ULL to west. I would imagine this will allow Chris to get into a much more favorable environment it if can put enough distance between the ULL inducing the most shear.

[hriverajr]

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
The only time he says "Houston, we have a problem" is usually when a system is going to potentially be a threat to the western Gulf. He said the same thing before Rita.

As for you saying that I want Houston to have a problem...that is incorrect. I very much do not want Houston to have a problem. I am just very worried, because this system could potentially be taking a dangerous track that could bring it into the GOM and potentially then toward the west or central Gulf after that (which includes Corpus Christi, Houston, Lake Charles, New Orleans, Biloxi, etc. all of which do not need a storm).



1) I have heard him use this phrase several times before...and yes he used it for Rita...but I have heard him use it for east coast storms as well. It's a GENERIC phrase...and it doesn't necessarily mean Houston....especially since he was not talking about TRACK...but INTENSITY when he said it!

2)...EWG...don't give me "the I don't want it." Let's keep it real. When it comes to wanting things to happen and develop...whether it is winter weather or tropical systems...you are on the top of the chart when it comes to letting desire cloud judgment.

Need I remind you of all the discussions last winter? Now...I am not saying you wish-cast it...but you get excited and that clouds your judgment...and I think you kow it. I can't tell you how many discussions we had about 850mb temps last winter and how worthless they are in predicting snow...but you kept on wishing and posting. Now...let's at least be honest.

Dad used to say "you lie to your friends and I'll lie to mine...but let's not lie to each other."

AFM, I just viewed the tropical update from JB and he specifically stated that it could be a West GOM problem if it survived. Not trying to be insulting, but I have noticed you have a habit of blowing peoples ideas out of the water in a pretty bad way. Yes sometimes peoples ideas may seem ludicrous, and yes they may be -removed-, but you can tone it down a little I believe. This in view of your bias of no activity getting going.

Hector

[curtadams]

You have a link to the radar?

Martinique Radar:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

...and I see no evidence of 2 centers on radar or satellite. Just one center with 2 blobs of convection.

When I looked earlier this morning there was a strong rotation near the convective blob. Yes, it's gone.

[El Nino]

25% chance to be a hurricane. Rita-like Path, maybe more in WNW direction. Another LA hit ?

I don't think it will dissipate. If it comes to GOM, it could explode over there. In 3 days, we'll see if we have to worry about that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

IMO, this thing looks like a typical 40mph TS in the process of trying to get it's act together. Does not look too bad to me.

[wxman57]

New McIDAS. Maybe a little better banding. Strongest convection south of the center:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/chris3.gif

[skysummit]

I have to agree EWG. I've seen much more unorganized Tropical Storms than this one. This one is doing pretty well IMO with the environment it has to work with. Just think if it was in a favorable environment.

[dwg71]

IMO, this thing looks like a typical 40mph TS in the process of trying to get it's act together. Does not look too bad to me.

IMO, it looks like a 30MPH TD, and its getting sheard from the north. Cloud tops are warming and it would not survive a direct trip over Hispanolia if it were to go there. Its been a pesky little system, so lets wait and see.

[HouTXmetro]

25% chance to be a hurricane. Rita-like Path, maybe more in WNW direction. Another LA hit ?

I don't think it will dissipate. If it comes to GOM, it could explode over there. In 3 days, we'll see if we have to worry about that.

Thats what I was thinking, but maybe further west since a lot of the models are hinting at a southward motion once it reaches th S-Fla area.

[Normandy]

LOL this is not a TD, its a TS.
Have you all seen Grace from a few years back? If you have then this looks beautiful.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 011659
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 02 KNHC
1647. 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 224 000 00000 0000000000
1648 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 222 000 00000 0000000000
1648. 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 220 000 00000 0000000000
1649 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 298 222 000 00000 0000000000
1649. 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 224 000 00000 0000000000
1650 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 298 224 000 00000 0000000000
1650. 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 224 000 00000 0000000000
1651 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 226 000 00000 0000000000
1651. 1742N 06448W 00000 0026 360 000 300 226 000 00000 0000000000
1652 1742N 06448W 00000 0026 360 000 300 226 000 00000 0000000000
1652. 1742N 06448W 00000 0026 360 000 300 226 000 00000 0000000000
1653 1742N 06448W 00000 0026 360 000 298 224 000 00000 0000000000
1653. 1742N 06448W 00000 0026 360 000 300 224 000 00000 0000000000
1654 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 296 224 000 00000 0000000000
1654. 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 224 000 00000 0000000000
1655 1742N 06448W 00000 0025 360 000 300 224 000 00000 0000000000
1655. 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 304 228 000 00000 0000000000
1656 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 224 000 00000 0000000000
1656. 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 226 000 00000 0000000000
1657 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 230 000 00000 0000000000



Plane is ready to takeoff.

[El Nino]

25% chance to be a hurricane. Rita-like Path, maybe more in WNW direction. Another LA hit ?

I don't think it will dissipate. If it comes to GOM, it could explode over there. In 3 days, we'll see if we have to worry about that.

Thats what I was thinking, but maybe further west since a lot of the models are hinting at a southward motion once it reaches th S-Fla area.

That's probably, but first the models thought it should cross Hispanola or Cuba. Now, I really don't think so. There's a chance that Chris could take the "perfect" path between the 2 ULL and to the South of Florida.

[El Nino]

How long until Chris ?

[Cyclenall]

This doesn't look like a depression, it looks like a 40 mph TS. It doesn't look that bad. I have to agree with Normandy, it's a beautiful storm comapred to Grace.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011709
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 03 KNHC
1657. 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 300 228 000 00000 0000000000
1658 1742N 06448W 00000 0026 360 000 302 226 000 00000 0000000000
1658. 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 310 224 000 00000 0000000000
1659 1742N 06448W 00000 0027 360 000 308 224 000 00000 0000000000
1659. 1742N 06448W 00000 0026 360 000 310 226 000 00000 0000000000
1700 1742N 06448W 00000 0025 360 000 302 224 000 00000 0000000000
1700. 1742N 06448W 00000 0024 360 000 300 216 000 00000 0000000000
1701 1742N 06448W 00000 0024 360 000 290 218 000 00000 0000000000
1701. 1742N 06448W 00000 0023 360 000 290 224 000 00000 0000000000
1702 1742N 06448W 00000 0021 360 000 294 226 000 00000 0000000000
1702. 1742N 06448W 00000 0019 360 000 290 236 000 00000 0000000000
1703 1742N 06448W 00000 0017 360 000 286 238 000 00000 0000000000
1703. 1742N 06449W 00000 0014 360 000 286 236 000 00000 0000000000
1704 1742N 06449W 00000 0011 360 000 288 236 000 00000 0000000000
1704. 1742N 06449W 00000 0009 360 000 296 234 000 00000 0000000000
1705 1742N 06449W 00000 0010 360 000 292 216 000 00000 0000000000
1705. 1742N 06449W 00000 0011 360 000 290 212 000 00000 0000000000
1706 1742N 06449W 00000 0011 360 000 292 214 000 00000 0000000000
1706. 1742N 06449W 00000 0010 360 000 290 224 000 00000 0000000000
1707 1742N 06449W 00000 0008 076 003 290 236 005 00000 0000000000

[LAwxrgal]

25% chance to be a hurricane. Rita-like Path, maybe more in WNW direction. Another LA hit ?

I don't think it will dissipate. If it comes to GOM, it could explode over there. In 3 days, we'll see if we have to worry about that.

Thats what I was thinking, but maybe further west since a lot of the models are hinting at a southward motion once it reaches th S-Fla area.

That's probably, but first the models thought it should cross Hispanola or Cuba. Now, I really don't think so. There's a chance that Chris could take the "perfect" path between the 2 ULL and to the South of Florida.

If that's the case, if this system does take that "perfect" path between the ULLs and S of FL, the stronger it'll be when (if) it gets into the Gulf, right?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a good comparison of Chris to other TSs:

TS Chris (2006): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

TS Grace (2003): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/Grace2003TS.jpeg

TS Alberto (2006): http://www.gulf-times.com/mritems/image ... _1_248.jpg

TS Allison (2001): http://www.esl.lsu.edu/modis/allison_final.jpg

TS Katrina (2005): http://www.quehubo.com/eng/katrina/katrina2.jpg

TS Gabrielle (2001): http://www.floridadisaster.org/BRM/Imag ... ielle2.gif

TS Bonnie (2004): http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/107943_m.jpg

[brunota2003]

I'm confused about the two upper level lows...is the second one they are talking about over Alabama? I see anticyclonic circ dropping out of Eastern NC/SC, I see the upper level low over the Bahamas...but the only other ULL I see is over near Mississippi/Al area...both lows are drifting west it appears to me:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

The two lows being mentioned are located near 20N53W and 25N72W. The GFS has been suggesting that Chris may try to snuggle in between these two systems as they all move westward as sort of a TUTT-TC-TUTT choo-choo train.

ok...thank you

[jusforsean]

so much could change in the next few days, but its really an eye opener, I think by Thurs we will have a better idea, i hope