Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thanks, EWG, for the reply...but I wanted to find tropical storms that did NOT become hurricanes...but just maintained TS strength all the way in to the US (like the NHC and others are predicting).

The closest I can find is (ironically) TS Chris from 1988. The reason it stayed weak though is because it hit many mountains:

[wxman57]

Very busy. Had to go into work at 9pm last night, got home 12:30am, awakened at 4:30am and had to come back in immediately. Not as much fun tracking storms when you don't get to sleep.

In any case, I must say that i was quite surprised that the NHC upgraded 99L to TD 3 at 10pm, as relying on IR satellite imagery on a weak, sheared low can lead to large errors in intensity and position estimates. I was even more surprised that the NHC called this Chris without any proof that the center was near the convection.

As it turned out, the NHC guessed that the center was beneath a large area of squalls closer to 16.2N but the center was 50-60 miles north of there at first light. Surprise! Sheared and exposed center. Dvorak estimates don't work well when they don't know the position of the LLC. I think you could now make a good argument that this is a TD, but as for a TS, I don't see any evidence of that. Certainly, observations around the low indicate pressures are unusually high - 1018 to 1019 mb across the NE Caribbean. it's possible that there might be a few small pockets of TS force winds in that squall to the south of the center and the one to the east. But look at the winds across the islands 90 miles to the west - 5-10 kts!

Ok, end of rant about NHC keeping me from sleeping last night because of this pitiful looking storm...

I plotted a GARP surface analysis with satellite:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/chris1.gif

You can see the exposed LLC there. Light winds all around the storm, but no data near those heavier squalls south and east. Recon may have a hard time finding TS force winds this afternoon.

As for movement, good model consensus on a general W-WNW track. Will it survive to reach the Bahamas? Maybe. Will it turn north around the Bahamas, maybe, or maybe not. That's a pretty strong ridge over the Ohio Valley. If Chris misses the opportunity to turn northward before reaching Florida (and if it survives) then it could move westward into the Gulf with a ridge to the north - a good setup for intensification.

Bottom line - Chris appears pathetic and weak. Future highly uncertain. Won't cause much problems for the NE Caribbean except perhaps for some heavy rain. No wind threat. If Chris survives and moves into the Gulf - WATCH OUT! Westward moving storm blocked by a ridge is good for intensification.

Final landfall: Somewher between Tampico, MX and North Carolina.

Back to work..

[skysummit]

......and once again, the Gulf goes BOOM. (if it gets there, that is)

[Aquawind]

Thanks for saying that wxman57.. I agree. It will be interesting to see if this thing can stay/get intact long enough for some solid model runs..

[PTrackerLA]

So are the chances greater of this heading west into the gulf or up the east coast (as long as it survives)? After last year I will not feel good about ANY storm heading west ouf of the Bahamas through or south of the tip of Florida .

[Extremeweatherguy]

very scary quote from JB in his latest post:

Moral is that Houston, we a have problem is a problem in longer term if this does not get tangled up with land. Stay tuned.

I really hope that Houston doesn't have a problem, but considering he said a similar thing with Rita (and Rita got within 50-100 miles), I am not feeling too encouraged right now.

At least I have at least 6-9 days before it would be in this neck of the woods. For now, Floridians and islanders need to watch this carefully and stay safe! I hope everything plays out to be ok in the end.

[Scorpion]

Is he talking specifically about Houston having a problem, or just using that quote in general context?

[Innotech]

So are the chances greater of this heading west into the gulf or up the east coast (as long as it survives)? After last year I will not feel good about ANY storm heading west ouf of the Bahamas through or south of the tip of Florida .

Im keeping an eye on this one too. Hello neighbor

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is he talking specifically about Houston having a problem, or just using that quote in general context?

I am 99% sure he is talking about Houston as a city. At this point he probably does not mean that this will hit Houston specifically, but I think he is trying to say that the western Gulf could be in trouble if this thing survives the next 5 days.

[Aquawind]

Seems most of what I am seeing is suggesting further westward into the GOM.. It has a long ways to go for sure..

[Audrey2Katrina]

I don't like the track it's on one little bit. I hope it does peter-out before getting anywhere near the Gulf... or better yet--that it doesn't get there at all.

A2K

[southerngale]

Although I get uneasy when I see anything out there that has even a remote possibility of coming this way, and with good reason, I certainly wouldn't worry about anything this far out and IMO, mentioning Houston is way too early. I think there's a good chance it won't even get into the GOM, right?

[HouTXmetro]

I know it's far out but based on the NHC's 5 day forecast and extropolated track from there. I am really beggining to get nervous for New Orleans sake. If it it survives I think New Orleans will feel at the least a moderate impact even if the storm misses to the East or West. I hope those Levees at a mininmum could handle a Tropical Storm.

[Stratosphere747]

Correct SGale..

And without bashing Joe B. Making the above statement weather it verifies or not is precisily why he gets the many negative comments.

I'd rather hear what is going on in the short-term. We can worry about the effects of something that is still over a week away later...

[HouTXmetro]

ULL moving W as predicted

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

so is that good or bad?

I'm not sure, can somebody else answer?

[jasons2k]

Although I get uneasy when I see anything out there that has even a remote possibility of coming this way, and with good reason, I certainly wouldn't worry about anything this far out and IMO, mentioning Houston is way too early. I think there's a good chance it won't even get into the GOM, right?

Yes, it's something for us to definitely watch but nothing to panic over any time soon. There is still a LOT of real estate for this thing to cover (assuming it survives). Now if Chris does end up in the FL Straits intact, then I will start to get worried.

[HouTXmetro]

Correct SGale..

And without bashing Joe B. Making the above statement weather it verifies or not is precisily why he gets the many negative comments.

I'd rather hear what is going on in the short-term. We can worry about the effects of something that is still over a week away later...

Lay off, the man is trying to feed his children.

[x-y-no]

ULL moving W as predicted

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

so is that good or bad?

I'm not sure, can somebody else answer?

Bad, since that will provide Chris a generally lower shear environment.

[Aquawind]

Now if Chris does end up in the FL Straits intact, then I will start to get worried.

Exactly as with the whole GOMER coast..

[Air Force Met]

Is he talking specifically about Houston having a problem, or just using that quote in general context?

I am 99% sure he is talking about Houston as a city. At this point he probably does not mean that this will hit Houston specifically, but I think he is trying to say that the western Gulf could be in trouble if this thing survives the next 5 days.

I don't think he is saying that at all. He says "Houston, we have a problem" a lot...even when he doesn't think soemthing is coming into the western GOM. Chances are...you are wanting Houston to have a problem.

It's a line from the Apollo 13 troubles...being we have a problem. If they would have said "Cleveland..." Joe would have said Cleveland...